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Govt-Sponsored Pro-Monarchy 'Rally' A Non-Event

Originally published at Siam Voices on September 24, 2010 On the eve of the red shirt protests last Sunday to commemorate the four year anniversary of the military coup and the four month anniversary of the military crackdown against the anti-government protesters, there was this little counter-protest:

At least 50,000 members of the Monarchy Defence Network from seven northeastern provinces (Nong Khai, Kalasin, Loei, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Sakon Nakhon, Khon Kaen and Udon Thani) are expected to turn up today at Thung Sri Muang, a public ground in central Udon Thani, to pledge allegiance to His Majesty the King.

"Govt calls mass gathering to counter reds", Bangkok Post, September 19, 2010

This so-called "Monarchy Defense Network", or the "Unified Volunteer Force to Protect The [Royal] Institution" if you call them literally ("รวมพลังสามัคคีอาสาสมัครปกป้องสถาบัน"), certainly sounded like a big deal and looking at this video report from Channel 7, it certainly looked impressive with all the pink shirt wearing people, a marching parade and tons of flags. More can be seen here from ThaiPBS.

But whose idea was it?

The network was formed by the Newin Chidchob-headed faction of the coalition Bhumjaithai Party, which controls the Interior Ministry. Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul will preside over the gathering in which participants will pledge an oath of allegiance to the monarchy and will take part in a mass parade.

"Govt calls mass gathering to counter reds", Bangkok Post, September 19, 2010

After Bhumjaithai's recent pitch of their amnesty bill, this is another sign by the party to position politically, hoping to emancipate themselves from the Democrat-led coalition government in a run-up to a future election (if that date comes sooner or later). Also, since the interior ministry is attached to this, it is an attempt to counter the red shirts movement by showing themselves being a loyal force in the predominantly red strongholds of the northeast.

And what about the attendance? The Bangkok Post has predicted 50,000 people coming, many other news sources have reported the same number the following day. But ASTV/Manager said only 20,000 came and the national news agency NBT states that only 5,000 showed up!

Considering the comparatively mute media coverage in the following days (and since the red shirt protests on Sunday were larger and more significant), this whole occasion was a non-event. And why do they drag the monarchy into the political discussion again, where almost every political fraction are urging each other not to?

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Thai Statistic of the Day: Young People Don't Care About Politics!

Originally published on Siam Voices on September 18, 2010 Note: The following post contains satire!

Here are some numbers for you as seen in the Bangkok Post...

An opinion survey by Bangkok Poll at Bangkok University found that more than 60 per cent of young people pay little or no attention to politics.

The pollsters surveyed 1,159 people in Bangkok aged 15 to 25 years from Sept 10 to 12 asking them about politics, to mark National Youth Day on Sept 20.

Asked about their interest in politics, 30.5 per cent of the respondents said they had some interest and 7.4 per cent of them had a strong interest , Bangkok Poll reported on Thursday. But 54.0 per cent said they paid little attention to politics and 8.1 per cent said they gave it no attention at all.

"Most young people ignore politics", Bangkok Post, September 16, 2010

Well, that happens in the best democracies (*cough*) that young people have other things to worry about such as school, studies, fashion, video games, etc. But why would the Thai youth think so?

Asked about the current political outlook, 47.6 per cent said full of conflict and finding mistakes made by political rivals, 26.7 per cent said it gave them a headache, 11.5 per cent said it’s not democratic, 6.5 per cent said full of violence, 4.3 per cent saw a start of reconciliation, 1.2 per cent thought the situation has returned to normal, and 2.2 per cent said it was just a mirage.

"Most young people ignore politics", Bangkok Post, September 16, 2010

Ok, the current situation isn't really good at the moment and we haven't made much progress on reconciliation so far. But with the right people we can achieve something, right?

Asked about the attitudes of Thai politicians, 44.0 per cent of them said they thought only about their own self-interest, 16.2 per cent said politicians would do anything to hold power, 12.2 per cent said they were corrupted, 10.8 per said they good only for talking, 6.5 per cent said they had more privileges than ordinary people. Only 4.6 per cent said they were competent and suitable to be people’s representatives, 4.3 per cent thought politicians think of the country’s best interests, 0.6 per cent said they were honest, and 0.8 per cent had no opinion.

"Most young people ignore politics", Bangkok Post, September 16, 2010

Alright, our MPs are not the youngest bunch and admittedly many of them could be out of touch with the young, hip demographic. But they will soon retire and soon a new generation of politicians will sweep in. And isn't this the right opportunity to encourage young people to finally stand up and take a fresh approach in order for some changes in politics as politicians?

Asked whether they wanted to become a politician, 90.6 per cent said no, 9.4 per cent said yes.

"Most young people ignore politics", Bangkok Post, September 16, 2010

Nope!

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Puea Thai Party's Flip-Flop Leadership

Originally published on Siam Voices on September 15, 2010. The opposition Puea Thai Party (PT) had some turbulent days in the past week with the sudden announcement of Yongyuth Wichaidit stepping down as the party's leader. But why?

Yongyuth has served for less than two years as an unhappy nominal Pheu Thai leader, whose job was exclusively to fulfil legal and constitutional requirements of a political party. It was no secret that he wanted out. It's unclear, though, whether yesterday's sudden announcement followed a long-distance request from Thaksin or Yongyuth simply felt he had had it with all the disrespect and knives in the back. [...]

"Party chief quits in mystery move", The Nation, September 10, 2010

Yongyuth himself said he wants to make room for the party to restructure itself for the next general election. "Today I tender my resignation in order to ensure my party's readiness for the next poll," he said.

The resigning of the party leader followed after the equally surprising announcement of a 'peace proposal' to the government earlier this month. The five-point-plan states that PT is ready to hold talks with "all parties in conflict" and "exchange opinions in a peaceful manner." Of course, like any plan, it had it's opponents from their own supporters and fiercest enemies and it had doubters.

What then followed were mixed signals. The party itself was at doubt on who will actually represent the party in the talks, then it suddenly has quit the reconciliation process and then it was reconsidering again which then the story, for the time being, peaked with Yongyuth's resignation.

The question of his successor flared up immediately and one name has been touted suspiciously often in the headlines.

A source in the opposition party said Pol Gen Kowit, who is well connected with leading bureaucrats, is expected to lead the party into a "reconciliation process". [...]

Pol Gen Kowit is tipped as the strongest candidate because of his clean image, seniority and respectful nature, the source said.

"He has no known affiliations with the Shinawatra family and he isn't afraid of a party dissolution and being stripped of voting rights," the source said.

"Yongyuth quits as Puea Thai leader, making way for Kowit", Bangkok Post, September 10, 2010

A clean politician? May be. Well connected? You bet! But some would be really surprised to hear how well connected Kowit is.

Pol Gen Kowit was in Class 6 of the pre-cadet school with Gen Sonthi. He was also a member of Council for National Security (CNS) set up immediately after the coup on Sept 19, 2006 military coup that removed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power. [...]

"Coup leaders welcome Pol Gen Kowit", Bangkok Post, September 10, 2010

With these credentials, Kowit would make a definitely more 'agreeable' party leader for some. But with an endorsement by coup leader Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, it could have made Kowit unelectable for many party members (and certainly many red shirts) as PT leader. Also, Kowit has failed to publicly state any desire to succeed Yongyuth as the party leader and consequently ignored any formality in order to be nominated as the party leader.

This might explain what happened on Tuesday when the party was electing a 'new' leader.

Yongyuth Wichaidit was yesterday re-elected leader of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, with overwhelming support from party MPs just days after his resignation.

The party's general meeting held at its headquarters voted 267 to 6, with four abstentions, in support of Yongyuth as its new leader. The decision came after a heated debate between a small group of northeastern MPs and the rest of the party, particularly those from the North and Central region.

"Yongyuth returns as party leader amid turmoil", The Nation, September 15, 2010

So, we're back to square one again! Apparently better stick with the status quo for now instead of having a battle for the leadership.

Of course, with everything related to PTP, it didn't take long until somebody mentioned Thaksin's possible involvement. First, at the heels of Thaksin's recent visit to South Africa, there was an outpouring of tweets by him last week where we was extensively talking about his thoughts on the peace process (here's a sample tweet in Thai). Then there were news of Puea Thai MPs meeting Thaksin in Moscow, possibly to counsel with him over the upcoming changes - even though any involvement by Thaksin has been quickly denied before.

If Thaksin really has given his approval to possible structural changes in the party, the re-election of Yongyuth is a blow to Thaksin's influence over PT. Nevertheless, that still doesn't stop both The Nation and Bangkok Post stating that the Puea Thai Party is still listening to Thaksin's command.

What this (no-)show of this party reveals, is that it is still trying to find a new direction and with some MPs deflecting to the rival Bhumjaithai Party, it has real problems keeping itself together.

While the Puea Thai Party is struggling, the government will continue its 'reconciliation' efforts - no matter with whom.

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Thailand's Generals Play Musical Chairs - Part 2

Note: This post has been originally published on August 3, 2010 in series of guest blogger posts for Bangkok Pundit at AsianCorrespondent. This is the second part in a two-part series on the upcoming military command reshuffle. In part one, James Harriman has reflected on the new ranks below the commander-in-chief. Today, this post highlights the aspirants on the top army post.

Every September is the time where the Thai military faces the annual game of musical chairs, where the many high-ranking generals are eager for a promotion. With the upcoming retirement of the current commander-in-chief Gen Anupong Paochinda, the question of the successor reveals the still substantial political weight of the kingdom's highest ranking soldier.

But this year though, September can't come fast enough for some.

In fact, Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon has already set July 20 as the deadline for commanders of the armed forces to send in their reshuffle lists to the defence permanent secretary, Gen Apichart Penkitti. These lists could even be in Gen Prawit's hands before the month ends. According to the schedule, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva should be able to send the names for royal endorsement within August.

"Democrats In A Rush To Anoint Prayuth", by Wassana Nanuam, Bangkok Post, July 15, 2010

The government's favorite candidate for the top post is Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, currently deputy commander-in-chief and a graduate of class 12 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School - this is where all future top commanders go through.

Like in many aspects in Thai society, interpersonal relationships and affiliation play a big role in determining the status of a person and his or her chances of being promoted.

To understand the importance of personal relationships and the graduation years inside the army to ascend through the ranks, I recommend reading Paul Chamber's lengthy, but in-depth essay on New Mandala. It also contains a handy list of all the current top army officers.

As Chambers has pointed out, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth were ex-commanders of the 21st Infranty Batallion of the Second Army Division, more commonly known as the "Queen's Guard" - a highly influential military unit that also have played a decisive part in the military crackdown against the anti-government red shirt protesters on May 19. This unit has also over the decades been actively supported by Privy Council president Gen Prem Tinsulanond.

Getting back to the government's intentions, one has to look back at the most recent red shirts protests. It is reported that the relationship between prime minister Abhisit had its rough patches since Gen Anupong has shown some hesitation to move against the protesters, while Gen Prayuth has maintained and even improved his ties to the government during the protests, so a promotion to the top rank can be seen as a reward for him.

With the potential appointment of Gen Prayuth comes also a long list of aspirants that are expected to take the seats below him. James Harriman has reflected on that aspect yesterday.

Even though the promotion for Gen Prayuth is almost certain, there are some musings that he might face some competition. Gen Piroon Phaeopolsong, currently army chief-of-staff, is considered to be the dark horse in the race for the next commander-in-chief.

In late July, Matichon Weekly has listed three reasons that could favor him for the top spot: Firstly, Gen Piroon hails from the same cavalry unit as Gen Prem, who himself would like to see one his of kind becoming commander-in-chief (แถมทั้งมีแรงดันจากบ้านสี่เสาเทเวศร์ ที่อยากให้ พล.อ.พิรุณ ซึ่งเป็นทหารม้าลูกป๋า ขึ้นเป็น ผบ.ทบ. สร้างประวัติศาสตร์ให้ทหารม้า มาเป็น ผบ.ทบ. อีกสักคน หลังจากที่ทหารม้าซบเซามาตั้งแต่หมดยุคป๋าเปรม). Also, as both Matichon Weekly and the Bangkok Post (already last year) have pointed out:

Another advantage of Gen Piroon, who has advanced in his career from the cavalry, is that he is regarded as one of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda's proteges. The president of the Privy Council banked on Gen Piroon to make his dream of seeing the set-up of the new 3rd Cavalry Division in Khon Kaen come true. Gen Prem had reportedly made a remark to leading soldiers that, "If I see the 3rd Cavalry Division before I die, I will die peacefully.''

"PM Abhisit, Gen Prayuth and their common future", by Wassana Nanuam, Bangkok Post, December 12, 2009

Secondly, the 2nd Cavalry Division is regarded as one of the leading forces behind the storm on the red shirt protest site from the Sala Daeng area (the Silom intersection) and Gen Piroon, because of his role as army chief-of-staff and his cavalry origins, is regarded as one of the masterminds (กำลังทหารม้าจากกองพลทหารม้าที่ 2 รักษาพระองค์ (พล.ม.2 รอ.) ก็กลายเป็นพระเอก เพราะเป็นกำลังหลักในการบุกเข้ากระชับพื้นที่ด่านศาลาแดง ด่านใหญ่ที่สุดของคนเสื้อแดงที่เชื่อว่าอันตรายที่สุด ซึ่งก็มี พล.อ.พิรุณ ซึ่งเป็นทหารม้าในฐานะ เสธ.ทบ. ก็มีส่วนร่วมวางแผน ).

And lastly, Matichon names the 'Buriram connection' as a factor favoring Piroon, since he hails from the north-eastern province - same as influential and powerful politicians like Newin Chinchob, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party (key coalition partner of the government) and whose relatives are regional power brokers. (สิ่งที่ทำให้ พล.อ.พิรุณ ถูกจับตามองขึ้นมา ทั้งๆ ที่แรงแผ่ว ก็คือ "บุรีรัมย์ คอนเน็กชั่น" ด้วยเพราะเหตุที่เป็นคนบุรีรัมย์ เช่นเดียวกับนักการเมืองคนสำคัญ และฮ็อตที่สุด มีเพาเวอร์ที่สุดในยุคนี้ อย่าง นายเนวิน ชิดชอบ แกนนำพรรคภูมิใจไทย แถมซ้ำมีเครือญาติที่เป็นกำลังหลักในพื้นที่ของนายเนวิน).

Out of all three factors, the 'Buriram connection' appears to be weakest argument, since no political party has a say in military issues except the Democrat Party. Nevertheless, Piroon's Isaan origin could make him a more 'agreeable' candidate among all political factions in contrast to Gen Prayuth, who has not made big efforts to hide his opposition to Thaksin.

Also, Gen Piroon is a graduate of class 10, same as current commander-in-chief Gen Anupong - who is actually reported to favor Piroon to become his successor (ตัว พล.อ.อนุพงษ์ เองก็ไม่ขัดข้องหากเพื่อนรักที่เขาขุนมากับมือ จะขึ้นมาเป็น ผบ.ทบ. ก่อนปีหนึ่ง).

One factor that speaks in favor of Prayuth is that, since he is a class 12 graduate, his retirement will be in 2014. Piroon on the other hand, can only be commander-in-chief for one year. So, it is more likely that he will be pushed to be chairman of the Royal Army Advisory Board, a position that has little influence in the ranks.

So, in the more than likely event that Gen Prayuth becomes commander-in-chief, it will be seen as a further attempt to strengthen the ties between the Democrat-led government and the armed forces. The irony is though that with the impending dissolution case of Democrat Party, the next commander-in-chief will survive the current government and with a new one, the game of musical chairs starts anew.

Further reading & sources:

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„Der Spiegel“ Interviews Foreign Minister Kasit

NOTE: This post was originally published on July 16, 2010 in a series of guest blogger posts for Bangkok Pundit at AsianCorrespondent. During his diplomatic tour through Europe (previously mentioned here), foreign minister Kasit Piromya gave an interview to the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel. Some lines are familiar to observers of him like these:

SPIEGEL: What is your explanation for the protests?

Kasit: The Marxist-Leninist interpretation was used by some protest leaders to paint a picture of disparity in Thai society -- between the rich and poor, rural and urban areas -- to attract supporters. This notion has also been accepted by the leftist media around the world. (...)

SPIEGEL: How have the leaders succeeded in gaining so much support?

Kasit: The protest is coordinated, organized and financed by Mr. Thaksin and his people. It is not something that happened naturally like in other countries, where demonstrations are spontaneous, like in Greece.

"Interview With Thai Foreign Minister - 'I'm Not Going to Run Like Mr. Thaksin'", Der Spiegel, July 15, 2010

Kasit actually made some solid remarks about the lèse majesté law ("Of course it has been abused! (...) I must now go to court!") and also named "Ethics, and good governance issues" to be the problems of Thai politics, but on the other hand he blames Thaksin in every second answer, whether it's about the failed November 14 election date proposal by the government during the protests ("Mr. Thaksin refused it. And then he started to have this armed insurrection."), the alleged main cause of the red shirts ("to support [him], to bring him back to Thailand without having him serve the jail sentence he has received for corruption and conflict of interest while in office.") - Kasit apparently can not let go of the idea that Thaksin is the ultimate root of all things evil. He also took a jab at German history:

SPIEGEL: What do you think? Who shot the people, if not the army?

Kasit: Look at German history: What happened when Joschka Fischer was on the streets in Frankfurt? Wasn't there shooting at that time? It is also possible that the Red Shirts were shooting among themselves in order to pass the blame to the government.

Former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer was involved in the student movement of the 1960s that was protesting against the conservatism and ignorance towards its past of post-war Germany. The government at that time tried to counter this movement i.e. by using the media to form a public opinion against the students. Due to the over-reaction by the police the protests escalated and turned violent. Even though it initially failed to cause any short-term results, it had long-lasting effects and influence on German society and culture.

In the 1970s the remains of the students movements either disappeared or have taken a radical route that also partly resulted in the formation of the Red Army Fraction that took out several armed assaults and was known as the first domestic terrorist group. During the same time frame Fischer was a leading member of the radical "Putzgruppe" (cleaning squad) that took on the police in several street battles. In 2001, when Fischer just became foreign minster, pictures dating back to 1973 were published, which shows him clubbing a policeman. Fischer later regretted this but also denied claims that he endorsed the use of molotov cocktails against the police. (More in this NYT article)

Getting back to Kasit's original claim: Neither sides, the "Putzgruppe" or the police, have used firearms during the street battles. All in all this historic comparison seems odd to me, but this is not the first time he has shown his selective historical knowledge. Talking about German history, Kasit once more came up with another comparison:

SPIEGEL: There have been 18 military coups since 1932. Can you really call Thailand a democracy?

Kasit: That is a very unfair question. It takes a lot of time to become a full-fledged democratic society. We are struggling with ourselves. Having said that, despite the challenges we have faced, we have never deviated far from the road to democracy which is what the Thai people want. Look at Germany: How did you end up with Hitler?

There we have it, Godwin's law has been used here in full effect! It seems to me that for one reasonable statement and he is spilling at least two or three ill-advised rants that ruin everything, as previously witnessed at an event in the US earlier this year.

By the way, since he mentioned the criminal past of a foreign minister, what about Kasit's past? Oh, yeah right!

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Mr. Noppadon Goes to Washington

NOTE: This post was originally published on 8 July 2010 in a series of guest blogger posts for Bangkok Pundit at AsianCorrespondent. Ever since the red shirt protests ended, the government is keen to tell the world it's side of the story and that things have turned back to normal again in the Kingdom. In order to ensure this, they have, for instance, sent a special envoy to the US (with a little help from friends over there) for set the public agenda for Thailand (and also to prevent the US from intervention). Also, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya was travelling around Europe the last few weeks starting with a visit to the European Union in Brussels, where he gave this astonishing statement while meeting an EU diplomat:

Kasit was quoted as telling Commissioner Georgieva that the recent red-shirt protests were engineered primarily by a combination of 'Marxist-Leninist' elements from the old Thai communist party, disaffected military men and 'slum-dwellers', all funded and inspired by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, sources said.

However, he did not pressure the EU to extradite fugitive Thaksin since his ministry has earlier sought consultations from the EU diplomats in Bangkok on the process of Montenegro’s quest for EU membership. (...)

According to the EU press release, Commissioner Georgieva expressed her concerns about the victims of the recent political turmoil and hoped for a meaningful internal political dialogue to address the divisions in Thai society.

"EU concerns about Thailand's reconciliation", Bangkok Post, June 23, 2010 (emphasis by me)

I would like to have seen her face expression upon hearing Kasit's statement. The quote also reflects the the observations of US Senator Jim Webb when he met the Thai special envoy in Washington as Webb "agreed that aspects of the Red Shirts were 'classic Marxist.'" (Source)

Shortly after that the opposition camp has sent out their envoy around the world to counter the Thai government's media offense.

A close aide to Thailand's ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is seeking US help to resolve the kingdom's turmoil as he tries to soften the image of the "Red Shirt" protest movement.

Noppadon Pattama, a former foreign minister, is on a mission to Washington that comes as a sharp challenge to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who has won US backing for his reconciliation plan and opposes outside mediation.

"We hope that the US administration will be more engaged about the situation in Thailand. They can use diplomatic channels to encourage the government to look at our proposal," Noppadon, a legal adviser to Thaksin, told AFP in an interview Tuesday.

"It doesn't mean they interfere with Thai politics. You can give friendly advice to your friend -- it's just natural," he said. "US-Thai relations are very important and if your friend is weak or is divided, your friend may not fulfill the potential that it has."(...)

Noppadon accused the government of misrepresenting the Red Shirts, saying: "I don't want the United States or the US population to misunderstand that the Red Shirts are terrorists. They are just farmers, they are just democracy lovers, they are people who dislike double standards,"

Noppadon declined to specify whom he was meeting in Washington, saying it could lead to repercussions. Diplomats said he would meet with staff members at Congress. (...)

"Thaksin Shinawatra aide seeks US role in Thailand", AFP via The Times of India, June 30, 2010

The Nation claims to know who Noppadon has met in Washington:

Noppadon will meet with Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell at the State Department, a political source said, adding that he had also sought meetings with ranking senators, including John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, Howard Burman and Richard Lucas.

"Noppadon is believed to rely on Ed Rogers, a lobbyist working in the law firm of former US secretary of state James Baker," the source said.

"Wooing Washington", The Nation, July 1, 2010

Also, on a possible involvement by Thaksin, Bangkok Post had this:

Mr Noppadon said Thaksin knew about his trip to the US but gave no particular instructions, adding that the fugitive former prime minister was now in eastern Europe. (...) [Noppadon] had nothing to do with Robert Amsterdam, a foreign lawyer working for Thaksin.

"Thaksin's lawyers at work", Bangkok Post, June 30, 2010

Ed Rogers is vice-president for the lobby firm BGR Holdings LLC, which had Thaksin as a client back in 2008. Also:

Thaksin Shinawatra [...] has hired BGR Government Affairs, Amsterdam & Peroff and Kobre & Kim to lobby federal policymakers.

BGR, according to the firm’s lobbying registration for Thaksin, will “provide strategic counsel on U.S. government policy and assist with advancing individual’s desire to promote democracy in Thailand.”

At BGR, Thaksin will be represented by Stephen Rademaker, former national security policy director for then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.); Jonathan Mantz, the national finance director for then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) 2008 presidential campaign; and Walker Roberts, an ex-deputy staff director for the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Loren Monroe, a BGR principal, declined to comment for this piece, saying the firm does not discuss client matters.

"Former prime minister of Thailand hires trio of lobby and law firms", by Kevin Bogardus, The Hill, July 1, 2010

The time of Noppadon's PR-tour in DC was not accidental as he was in the week before the US Congress votes on whether to back Prime Minister Abhisit's reconciliation roadmap or not. The vote went 411 - 1 in favor of the bill officially titled "Affirming the support of the United States for a strong and vital alliance with Thailand" (the full text of the bill is in the link).

Of course, the Thai government is delighted with the decision from Washington as they have encouraged Abhisit to stay the course and carry on with the roadmap. This episode was also a show of whose side has done better lobbying on Capitol Hill, since the Thai government has also hired a lobbying firm. Looks like Noppadon or Thaksin will have more work to do to convince DC for their side of the political conflict.

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Is “Bringing Thaksin Back” Puea Thai's Key Policy?

Bringing back former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to Thailand and reinstatement of the 2007 Constitution would be two main key policies for next election campaign of Puea Thai Party, MPs chairman Chalerm Yubamrung said on Saturday.

Mr Chalerm said the opposition camp will also inform voters that it would move ahead with the populist policy initiated by the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, such as 30 baht for curing all diseases and village fund.

The veteran politician said his party will also come up with a law to grant amnesty to yellow and red-shirt protesters facing criminal and political charges after the September 19, 2006 military coup.

He was confident that Puea Thai party’s MP candidate, Korkaew Pikulthong, would win the July 25 by election in Bangkok’s constituency 6. Mr Korkaew, being detained in prison on charge of terrorism, is a co-leader of the pro-Thaksin United front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

"PT: “Bring Thaksin back” is a key policy", Bangkok Post, July 3, 2010

This will not sit well with the yellow shirts and other anti-Thaksin advocates, but may be the prospect of amnesty for both yellow and red shirts may offer some room for compromise - nah! As long as Thaksin is mentioned there's no chance in hell the Puea Thai Party will get through with this!

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UPDATE: Venue Changed! – Announcing: Panel on the Thai Political Crisis at the University of Hamburg

Note: Official announcement in German language below.

I'm happy to announce one of the reasons why I have been very busy the last few weeks: The student body of the faculty of Thai Studies at the University Hamburg, Germany (which I'm a member of) are hosting a panel discussion on the ongoing political crisis in Thailand. Since events of this kind about this topic on an academic level are rare in Germany, this is a great opportunity to fill this void.

We have invited, in my opinion, the best German-speaking experts on Thailand to discuss the causes, the protagonists, the issues of the political situation and are also trying to answer the question, if there is a way out of it.

The speakers are Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, political scientist at the University of Hildesheim and Dr. Marco Bünte, research fellow with the GIGA Institute of Asian Studies. Oh, and some Thai blogger is also on the panel...

Prof. Volker Grabowsky, head of the department of Southeast Asian Studies, will give an introductory essay.

The title of the event is "Thailand am Scheideweg?" ("Thailand at the Crossroads?") and takes place on Monday, 5 July 2010 at 18.30h at lecture room C in the main building at the University of Hamburg. Note: this event is in German.

If you know anybody in or near Hamburg, please pass this on to them!

------------------------Official German announcement------------------------

Der Fachschaftsrat der Thaiistik an der Universität Hamburg lädt ein:

"Thailand am Scheideweg?" Podiumsdiskussion zur politischen Krise in Thailand

Diskussionsteilnehmer: Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, Universität Hildesheim Dr. Marco Bünte, GIGA-Institut für Asienstudien Saksith Saiyasombut, Student und Blogger

Einleitender Vortrag: Prof. Dr. Volker Grabowsky, Leiter der Abteilung Südostasien, Universität Hamburg

Für zwei Monate waren große Teile Bangkoks von den größten politischen Demonstrationen des Landes lahm gelegt worden. Die so genannte „Vereinigte Front für Demokratie und gegen Diktatur“ (UDD), auch bekannt als die „Rothemden“, protestierte gegen die Regierung von Premierminister Abhisit Veijajiva und forderte diese auf, das Parlament aufzulösen und Neuwahlen auszurufen. Die Proteste wurden am 19. Mai 2010 nach einer mehrtägigen militärischen Operation aufgelöst. Insgesamt kamen bei gewaltsamen Ausschreitungen in den zwei Monaten über 85 Menschen ums Leben, über 2000 wurden verletzt. Seit dem Militärputsch gegen den damaligen Premierminister Thaksin Shinawatra im Jahr 2006 befindet sich das Königreich Thailand in einer politischen Krise, die das Land immer mehr in zwei politische Lager spaltet.

Die Abteilung Sprachen und Kulturen Südostasiens und der Fachschaftsrat Thaiistik an der Universität Hamburg lädt zu einer Podiumsdiskussion mit Thailand-Experten ein, um zu ergründen, wie es weiter in Thailand gehen soll. Wie konnte es zu dieser politischen Krise kommen? Wer sind diese politischen Fronten und was sind ihre Positionen? Hat die Demokratie in Thailand noch eine Chance?

Zeit: Montag, 5. Juli 2010, 18.30 Uhr bis 20.30 Uhr Ort: Hörsaal C, Hauptgebäude, Universität Hamburg, Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1, 20146 Hamburg

:)

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New MICT Minister Stays the Course to Censorship

After the fallout of the no-confidence vote of June 4, the cabinet has been reshuffled and all Puea Paendin ministers have been thrown out. One post very prominent post that was affected by the change is the Minister of Information and Communication Technology (MICT). The infamous Ranongruk Suwunchwee has been replaced by Juti Krairiksh of the Democrat Party. And the first order of the new minister was...

The Thai cabinet Tuesday approved the creation of a new cyber crime agency to stamp out online criticism of the revered monarchy.
The government, which has removed tens of thousands of web pages in recent years for insulting the royal family, said the main task of the Bureau of Prevention and Eradication of Computer Crime would be to protect the monarchy.
"The monarchy is crucial for Thai national security because it is an institution that unifies the entire nation," government spokesman Watchara Kanikar said.

"Thailand sets up unit to tackle websites insulting royals", AFP, June 15, 2010

Ok, this probably was planned before the new minister took the helm of the MICT. In fact, according to a Bangkok Post article, this task came from way up the order.

A parliamentary showdown caused a cabinet reshuffle caused the end of the career of the best information and technology minister Thailand has had since 2009; farewell Ranongruk Suwunchwee, who transformed the ministry from a mere communications technology bureaucracy into a true Ministry of Internet Censorship of Thailand (MICT); also looking for work will be Ms Rangongruk's spouse Pairote, who will presumably lose his unofficial but thriving office at the ICT ministry; it will be difficult for new minister and Democrat Party functionary Juti Krairiksh to live up to the standard of the previous censor, but he insisted he was up to the task; within days of taking office, Juti confirmed that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had personally instructed him that monitoring websites was one of the three most important jobs he would ever perform for the country.

"Censorship baton passes", Bangkok Post, June 16, 2010

And to emphasize his calling even more he said this:

Mr Juti added that the warnings was not intended to violate freedom of opinions because Thailand is not a dictatorial country. The government has given too much freedom for its citizens, this time it only asks the website owners to control their web contents without violating other people’s rights.

"MICT to curb violations of Computer Act", National News Bureau of Thailand, June 15, 2010

Just to give some perspective, this is what the government has 'achieved' so far:

There is also the issue of censorship itself with Prachactai reporting CRES blocked more 1,150 websites in last week of May alone, while Freedom Against Censorship Thailand (FACT) recently claimed ”the aggregate total [of websites] blocked so far is over 65,000”.

"Thai Government Introduces Internet Censorship Agency", Jon Russel, June 17, 2010

Kavi Chongkittavorn of The Nation has commented on the government's efforts so far:

The government is willing to spend an additional hundreds-of-millions of baht to track down and shut the websites and their URLs. But the end result would remain the same - more would appear. No matter how Thai authorities want to censor the Internet, they will not succeed. That has been the past practice with valuable lessons learned.

So far, online censorship has had only negative repercussions on Thailand and its online users because it blocks public access to information and commercial transactions worldwide.

It gives Thailand extremely bad publicity and reputation - something the country can ill afford to have at this crucial time. Thai authorities often said they have no option but to shut down these websites, which in their view, have committed "lese majeste," which literally means "injury to the monarch."

Such bureaucratic responses were mostly knee-jerks. (...)

Question is: are there better ways to handle the online proliferation of defamatory remarks about the monarchy in ways that would not impair the freedom of expression in this country?

Of course, there are workable approaches. But they would require extraordinary efforts that would include close consultation, openness and transparency from all parties.

One must not forget Thailand used to be among the world's top thirty countries (Freedom House, 2000) with long-standing press freedom. However, since former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra came to power in 2001, the index of press freedom has suffered a free fall, leaving Thailand only a partly free country.

With continued political crisis, the Thai media has yet to recuperate and gain free press creditability. Although the Abhisit government has a liberal attitude towards media freedom, the PM has not been able to enforce his vision in full.

"Thailand must rethink online censorship", The Nation, June 21, 2010

The article also addresses the recently set up "Advisory Committee on National Security Cases Involving the Monarchy" and what cases it has to deal with. It's worth a read.

The problem with such rigorous censorship is that is the beginning of a slippery slope that the end justify all means, whatever the costs. Also, a well-known and old problem is the constant uncertainty what is actually allowed and what is already illegal. It is the same problem that the regulators face each time they have to decide when to report a site or not. Since in this heated political climate those on the side of the government are more eager to pledge loyalty to the King and thus, when in doubt, it is more safe to block a site - processes become subject to gut feelings.

via Jon Russel and Bangkok Pundit

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Asia Society Live-Webcast With Special Envoy Kiat Sittheeamorn

The Asia Society, a US-based non-profit pan-Asia organization, will host a live webcast event with Kiat Sittheeamorn, a member of the Democrat Party and currently Thai Special Envoy to New York and Washington. The event takes place Monday, June 14 beginning at 4 PM EST / 10 PM CEST / 3 AM Bangkok time and will be streamed live at www.AsiaSociety.org/Live. The topic will be (of course) the current situation in Thailand. A recent interview with Politico gives a taste of Kiat's (and ultimately the government's) talking points. Excerpt:

POLITICO: What is the purpose of your visit here?

Sittheeamorn: Things are more or less back to normal. We tried to monitor the views of various countries, and what we have observed is that some of the international media’s reporting in the past few weeks has been a little bit incomplete, in many cases inaccurate.

"Interview with Thailand's special envoy", POLITICO, June 11, 2010

Earlier this weekend Kiat was in Washington D.C. and met with diplomats to basically say that everything is in control and they do not need the US (or anyone else) to act as a mediator.

A special envoy from Thailand has sought US support in the country's political crisis, discouraging the kingdom's longtime ally from trying to mediate in the wake of bloody street protests. (...)

Kiat, who met with members of Congress and President Barack Obama's administration on Friday, said that the Thai government welcomed US "suggestions" but was pursuing its own reconciliation plan.

"We ourselves also see some difficulties in negotiating and discussing with the Red Shirts," Kiat told AFP. "If the US extends a helping hand, I don't know if it will have different results."

"There is also the risk that it might complicate the issue even further," said Kiat, who is Thailand's trade negotiator.

"Thai government tells US it's in charge", AFP, June 12, 2010

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Chambers: The Challenges for Thailand’s Military

New Mandala has posted a guest article by Paul Chambers, a senior research fellow at the University of Heidelberg, Germany and an expert on civil-military relations in southeast Asia, about the Thai military and its upcoming challenges. Key excerpt:

In the aftermath of the May 19 victory over the Red Shirts and Thaksin, Thailand’s military officer corps appears united above, but fissured below. (...) But the perils facing the Queen's Guard will be less likely to arise from Thailand’s elected civilian governments given their temporary and frail character—especially with Thaksin still on the run. Rather, the clique’s greatest challenge will be to diminish internal military resentment from junior officers and thus ensure its enhanced control over the armed forces. If Prem and Surayud successfully balance various military classes to perpetuate Queen’s Guard military control, then some semblance of unity within an arch-royalist armed forces may well persevere. Yet if such balancing is not undertaken or proves unsuccessful, then internal military divisions could become increasingly violent.

"The challenges for Thailand’s arch-royalist military", by Paul Chambers, New Mandala, June 9, 2010

Chambers give a very detailed account into the structure of the army's current top command line, its origin and what lies ahead. I recommend you to read it.

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Govt Survives Vote of Confidence But Coalition Partners At Each Other's Throat

246 - 186 - 11 for PM Abhisit Veijajiva, 245 - 187 - 11 for Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban, 244 - 187 - 12 for Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij and 239 - 190 - 15 for Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya. These are the bold numbers that show the government has survived yet another battle as politics came back to parliament earlier this week as it faced a vote of no confidence regarding the military crackdown on the anti-government red shirt protesters on May 19 and unsurprisingly, there was a lot of bad blood boiling before the vote.

From the time the debate opened on Monday morning until its close on Tuesday, bitter and heated exchanges have highlighted the depth of animosity and distrust between those aligned to the anti-government Redshirts, on the one hand, and the Democrat party-led government, on the other.

While the words exchanged were blunt, giving the debate an air of transparency and frankness, they were not necessarily truthful or accurate. But then such is the way in almost any parliament in the world. The difference is that this debate took place after unprecedented violence on the streets of Bangkok.

And while heated discussion of a variety of incendiary and controversial issues is part and parcel of what parliamentary debate is about in a healthy democracy, it remains to be seen whether the acrimonious debate smoothes the way for Abhisit's reconciliation plan. (...)

Peua Thai MP and Redshirt leader Jatuporn Promphan accused the government of trying to hide the truth about the recent clashes, while the government in turn accused the protestors of harming their own people to discredit the government and security forces. Focusing on Deputy Prime Minister Suthep, Jatuporn said that the government “accuses us of paying people to die.” He added that, “If I can hire someone, I would pay for Suthep to die.” (...)

Puea Thai Party Chairman Chalerm Yoobamrung questioned a number of government ministers, including the prime minister. His interrogation included a grilling of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, whom he accused of “wretched and vile comments” about the Thai monarchy in a speech that Kasit gave at Johns Hopkins University in April.

"Mantras, Misperceptions and Mutual Acrimony in Thai MP Debate", The Irrawaddy, June 2, 2010

The last paragraph is referring to Kasit's (unusually for him) level-headed remarks about the Thai monarchy during a long (usual) rant about Thaksin and countries that are allegedly helping him.

The parliamentary debate went on for hours, partly had to be stopped at 2 AM in the morning with the MPs still at each other's throat (if anyone was still watching the complete live broadcast on TV). I was only (physically and mentally) able to occasionally drop in out onto the house sessions for some minutes at a time. But from what I heard during the debates, the rhetoric on both sides (during the times I switched to) was at least as fierce as it was during the protests from the red shirt stage - aggressive, rude and at times borderline ugly. The politicians did nothing to win back the trust of the people into the political institutions. The much promotoed "reconciliation" of Abhisit is nowhere to be seen.

While it appeared before the vote that the opposition Puea Thai Party has some problems keeping their MPs in line, another battle line was drawn inside the coalition as Bhumjaithai Party's Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul and Transport Minister Sohpon Zraum have failed to get the minimum 238 votes to survive the no confidence vote (236 and 234 respectively). All eyes were on the Pheua Phaendin Party, whose MPs were allowed to freely vote for or against the ministers and apparently 10 of them did vote against Chavarat and Sohpon. The aftermath is now is ugly:

Bhumjaithai lashed out at Puea Pandin following the no-confidence debate yesterday accusing it of "back-stabbing" and demanding that it leave the coalition.

Puea Pandin MPs either cast votes of no confidence or abstained from voting yesterday for Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai leader, and Transport Minister Sohpon Zarum.

Newin Chidchob, Bhumjaithai's de facto leader, was particularly upset by the perceived slight. A government source said the party powerbroker told Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Premier Suthep Thaugsuban, the government manager, that Puea Pandin's actions were unacceptable.

The row between the two partners has simmered for some time with Bhumjaithai said to have the upper hand.

The parties have locked horns over local development budget allocations and the annual transfer of state officials.

There is also an unsettled score involving political wrangling in the lower Northeast between Boonjong Wongtrairat and Mr Newin of Bhumjaithai, and Pinij Charusombat and Pairote Suwunchwee of Puea Pandin.

Mr Newin is also believed to hold a personal grudge against Kasem Rungthanakiat, who turned to Mr Pairote's party instead of joining Bhumjaithai when the People Power Party was dissolved. Mr Kasem's move to Puea Pandin quashed Mr Newin's hopes of consolidating his political stronghold in the lower Northeast.

"Coalition rivals face off", Bangkok Post, June 3, 2010

Worse, Bhumjaithai is now demanding the Phuea Phaendin Party to be thrown out of the coalition. As of now, the Democrat Party was considering to reshuffle the cabinet:

The Puea Pandin Party is expected to be removed from the government coalition in a coming cabinet reshuffle, a highly-placed source in the government says. Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban has bowed to the demand of Bhumjaithai Party de facto leader Newin Chidchob to remove Puea Pandin from the coalition.

The source yesterday said Mr Suthep had agreed to Mr Newin's plan after hearing how he could make up for the reduced number of coalition MPs in parliament without Puea Pandin. The coalition government would be left with 22 fewer votes of support through the departure of Puea Pandin.

Puea Pandin has 32 MPs, but 10 come under the influence of Pol Gen Pracha Promnok and they did not support the administration in the first place. The source said Mr Newin had given assurances to Mr Suthep that he could find adequate support to stabilise the coalition alliance following Puea Pandin's departure.

Mr Newin's plan calls for the coalition to keep at least 11 votes: five from the Ban Rim Nam faction of Puea Pandin which supports the government and six from the Matubhumi and Pracharaj parties, which are now in the opposition and each hold three seats in the lower house.

The government also might secure six or eight more seats if Puea Pandin MP for Udon Thani Chaiyos Jiramethakarn can talk his colleagues into leaving the party.

The source said Mr Newin had suggested the three groups be given a deputy ministerial post each. Mr Chaiyos's group might be given a ministerial post if more than eight seats could be secured.

"Puea Pandin On Way Out", Bangkok Post, June 4, 2010

The article goes on about the ministerial posts that could be affected by the reshuffle. In the current cabinet, there are four Phuea Phaendin posts: the Deputy Minister of Education, the Minister of Industry, the Deputy Minister of Finance and the infamous Minister for Information and Technology. The last three could fall into the hands of the Democrat Party if Phuea Phaendin is thrown out.

As for the balance of power in the parliament, the current five-party-coalition (including Democrat Party with 172 and Bhumjai, Phuea Phaendin 32 seats each) has 270 seats, while the opposition Puea Thai Party has 189 and the remaining 16 seats are split between 3 minor parties. If the 32 Phuea Phaendin MPs are thrown out, the coalition is left with 238 seats, just one more than the opposition. So the horsetrading is no surprise with attempts to convince certain Phuea Phaendin MPs, but also the smaller opposition parties to jump ship and change the sides. The decision is to take place Friday.

Even if everything turns out okay for the coalition, with Phuea Phaendin on board or not, this alliance will be even shakier than before. What also became apparent with the fallout between the second and third largest coalition parties is that there is hardly any traditional political alliances between parties as seen in many European democracies, many politicians just want to be where the sun shines the brightest and are willing to do almost anything, many of the parties had no problems to align themselves with the now disbanded Thaksin-proxy People's Power Party.

The tragedy in this whole issue is that parliament has shown its ugly side again when the censure sessions deteriorated to just a shouting-match at times. Does anybody still think about the red shirts, the deaths of the protests and the roots of the problems, that got us here in the first place?

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Al Jazeera's Listening Post on Social Media During The Thai Protests

Al Jazeera's media magazine Listening Post has reported on Thailand again in it's latest episode, this time focussing on the social media aspect during the protests especially during the deadly street battles in May. Again, yours truly was asked to give my two cents on the issue again. The Global Village Voices segment begins at the 7:20 minute mark, this time alongside Florian Witulski (@vaitor on Twitter), a German journalism-student in Bangkok who spend much of the last weeks running around the streets of Bangkok and, despite the chaos, was live-tweeting from the ground (see this profile on him at CNNgo).

For some strange reason this week, we both got subtitled...

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOrLOmbQhtY&w=600&h=360]

BONUS: German media magazine ZAPP also did a short report on Twitter's role during the clashes, featuring Eric Seldin alias @thaicam of Thaicam Production Services.

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State Of A National Mind - Some Personal Thoughts

"Bullet holes at my office, 5th fl. (Chidlom)", picture courtesy of @Nok_Kasama

A lot is being said about time: that it slips by fast, that it is money, that it makes you wiser, that it gives you the opportunity to reflect and also that it heals wounds. A week ago the biggest political protests the country has ever seen was dispersed by the army in a military crackdown that itself was not the disaster that shocked the nation - it was the aftermath that has left not only parts of Bangkok, but also many parts of the country in rubbles. It was the final day of a military advance that killed over 50 and injured nearly 400 people - the total body count of the protests is 85 and over 2000 respectively. It was that May 19th, 2010 that has ripped an even bigger wound.

This was different from the deadly clashes of April 10, or any other riots that happened in the capital. We witnessed an escalation of violence, bottled-up anger and disappointment and also the definite destruction of the national myth of unity and peace. Even though the national anthem says that "Thais love peace" but the next line also states that we are not afraid to fight. But what are we fighting for?

There is no doubt that a large group of the red shirt protesters have a genuine political consciousness and want a democracy, where their vote counts, where their voices and concerns are heard in Bangkok and that their lives are improved with immediate and visible effect. Like it or not, the United Front against Dictatorship for Democracy, as they are formally called, are a political movement you cannot get rid off that easy anymore. They are here to stay! But to say that this group is only made up of uneducated, poor rural workers that are easily lured in with gloomy promises is factually wrong and devalues any reasonable discussion.

The government side, at least prime minister Abhisit, attempted a soft approach to the protesters and even when the red shirts seized the important commercial part of Bangkok, he remained relatively mild-tempered. The fact that it dragged on for nearly two months is partly because he, and probably many people in Bangkok as well, have underestimated the red protesters‘ stamina and defiance.

But, as in any conflict, the radical voices are the loudest and over the course of the protests the moderate and reasonable were being pushed aside. This was evident when Abhisit offered the red shirt leaders a so-called 'roadmap to reconciliation' that included new elections by November. It came at a time when the red shirts suffered a massive public fallout after a militant wing of the movement stormed through the nearby Chulalongkorn Hospital in search of any hidden soldiers. It was the last chance for a peaceful solution and to walk away without losing face. But any hopes were dashed when the UDD leaders failed to agree and added more and more counter-demands. This was the moment were the moderates on all sides have lost. What happened next was the beginning of the end.

Even if the protesters are now dispersed, the streets of Bangkok are clear again and many people are relieved, unfortunately though, the worst isn‘t over - the mess has just begun! What can happen now is a radicalization of all fractions. People do not want to trust each other even more, the prejudice one had of the other is now more solidified. The divide between Bangkok and the rest of the country will grow and as the mob attacks in the provinces have shown, conflicts and clashes will not take place in the capital exclusively. If we are not careful things will get uglier.

A taste of what‘s to come can be found online already in the past week where a large part of Thai netizens display their loyalty to the status quo and at the same time fiercely attack everyone who dares to criticize it or even have a different opinion. Especially CNN has come under fire for their alleged biased reporting during the protests, starting with an open letter. And even though this has already been proven to be factually wrong in many parts, people still praise this letter without any question. This single case shows that many people are less willing to hear from voices from outside and that are different to their‘s, they are immune to criticism. This marginalization of opinion diversity can only lead to isolation.

And here‘s in my opinion one of the main problems that lead to this tragedy: How can there by in any way be a reconciliation of all, if the majority refuses to listen what others have to say? How will there be harmony without understanding the issues in order to resolve them? And how will there be unity if every single Thai does not start to look at each other face-to-face on equal terms?

It is not a national tragedy just because many Bangkok residents have a few places less to make a shopping therapy. It is a national tragedy because people have been killed, damage has been done not by an foreign threat, but by Thais themselves. It is a national tragedy because never before it was shown that bluntly that the institutions and their participants, that are essential in a democratic system, are ineffective to solve problems.

Now that the government has issued an arrest warrant against Thaksin for terrorism charges, they have intensified a seemingly obsessive witch hunt that has blinded parts of the nation (including the newspaper of the same name) for years now. What many slowly seem to realize now is that even though it may have started with Thaksin, who is despite several human rights violations and cronyism according to some is unfortunately already the best what Thai democracy had to offer, this is now way beyond him now. This is a result of a collective failure that became evident during the Thaksin years and even more evident since the 2006 coup.

What I hope for this country is that the people will not try to put a blanket over the ever-increasing rift and blindly preach peace, love and unity until the next escalation. I hope that everybody will sincerely think for a moment why we got to this point and does not forget this at the next best diversion. This national wound takes more than time to heal. What it needs is a reconsideration of everything, our way of life, the definition of "Thai-ness", the way we teach our children how to think independently and openly voice their opinion, the perception of a good government, a fair and balanced media. In general, a mature democratic society where a reasonable debate can take place in order to solve the social problems of the nation.

I have my doubts though that it will happen anytime soon...

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Videos: Anger in Ubon Ratchathani

The Thai Report, a blog similar styled to The Drudge Report, has posted some video footage from Ubon Ratchathani in the Isan region, a stronghold of the red shirts. The first video is from Friday and shows a rally stage who were, apart from the usual singing and dancing and debating, mourning one killed man from Ubon, Inn-Plaeng Theswong (อินแปลง เทศวงศ์), a 32-year-old taxi driver. His name also appears on this official list of killed victims so far (PDF).

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjZmNOWpOeQ&w=600&h=360]

The second video is from Sunday and shows a large group of red shirts protesters setting fire barricades in front of the 2nd Air Division/21st Wing Air Combat Command Air Force Base. Also, see this photo gallery.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl2R7pInbSg&w=600&h=360]

Shortly after that, the CRES has declared a state of emergency in five more provinces, Ubon Ratchathani is one of them.

The last video shows that the red shirts have gathered at the same stage as Friday again, this time to watch the speeches from the main rally stage in Bangkok and also watch some foreign news clips as well. Even though the state of emergency has been declared in this city, they were still setting up burning barricades and as the blogger, who posted the video, states "saw only one policeman and he was watching the videos in the red shirt media tent."

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy943TA-c7c&w=600&h=360]

Even though this may not be representative for other provinces in Thailand, but these incidents show that news from the capital are spreading very fast these days and the more people are killed, the more the anger in the rural areas grows. The red leaders have been repeatedly urging the red shirts in the provinces to rally at the city halls and, in case the Bangkok siege is forcefully cracked down, to storm them. These pictures also suggest the growing divide between Bangkok and the rest of the country that will grow with each day the crisis goes on and even if the current protest will come to an end (in what form whatsoever), the conflict for potential in rural Thailand grows and the situation can get volatile in the run-up to the next election (whenever that will take place...).

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Roundup: The Crackdown, Day 3 - Six Dead, 31 Wounded

Note: This post highlights everything what happened after I had to sign off from the live blog earlier today. Another day of deadly clashes send central Bangkok deeper and deeper into a spiral of violence and already too far away for any peaceful solution of this conflict. Official figures report six have been killed today, 31 injured. None of them are soldiers.

After the CRES has gone on air two times today, prime minister Abhisit was seen publicly for the first time in many days when he made a TV address Saturday evening.

"We regret that the campaign has claimed lives of people. However it is the only choice we could do to deal with the situation," he said in a special TV-pool programme," he said. He ensured that the campaign will do the best to keep the loss minimal.

He said the reds have held hostage the country and the government , therefore, the government has no choice but to suppress them. He insisted that the government had tried every means to handle the chaos in the country which is caused by "the terrorists".

"The only way to end the loss of lives is that the protest ends immediately. The protest has been organised for the benefits of just small groups of people," the premier said. He called for people not to participate in the cycle that created chaos in the country. (...)

He also called for the public to screen information about the situation, particularly that from the reds side, because they could claim anything without giving evidence and proof.

"PM regret loss of lives", The Nation, May 15, 2010

It was important for Abhisit to show up as questions about his presence were looming and also to show that he's (at least appears) in power and has not been sidelined by the military. Abhisit more or less admits that diplomatic means to end the protests have failed and that this is the only way to end this protest.

Many video footages of today's clashes from international media, like this one from the BBC, were made on Rama IV Road, South of the rally site, but similar scenes happened elsewhere in Bangkok:

There were many reports on the streets that snipers were firing at protesters. Some of the protesters were setting barricades of tires on fire, sending up tall plumes of smoke apparently in an effort to keep out troops, who have been setting up a cordon around the protest area.

"Thai Government Takes Harder Stance as Clashes Continue", by Seth Mydans and Thomas Fuller, New York Times, May 15, 2010

This video shows a military sniper from building shooting at protesters.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAc_iecUgkw&w=600&h=360]

Also, CNN correspondent Dan Rivers has footage (starting at 2:40 minutes) from the same spot and also reports that the video "clearly shows that the army is shooting at people".

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btp-wUvNXuM&=600&h=360]

As I'm writing this another day beings in Bangkok and there'll be likely violent clashes and casualties again. Both fractions will stay their course and try to chase the other side away. The situation has become increasingly life-threatening for third parties such as ambulance workers and members of the media. At the rally site itself the first effects of the blockade have appeared in form of food shortages, but the speakers on the stage cheer the supporters to carry on.

Further reading:

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CRES Botches Up 'Measures' Against Protesters, Govt Scraps Nov 14 Election Date

The short version of Wednesday's events:

Thai army spokesman says postponing measure to cut off supplies to protesters

Tweet by Reuters Breaking News (@REUTERSFLASH)

Thai Govt withraws election offer. Reds refuse to move, nothing now left to lose. Back to Square 1, Take 100.

Tweet by Aela Callan (@aelacallan), Al Jazeera English

The long version of Wednesday's events:

After the ultimatum given out by the prime minister yesterday to cut off water and electricity in the rally area there was some anticipation on what was going to happen on Wednesday night. Residents living near the rally site were already looking for a place to stay somewhere else. But then nothing happened!

The Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) on Wednesday night decided to postpone cutting off water and power supplies to the Ratchaprasong area for fear of causing hardships to residents in the area.

CRES spokesman Col Sansern Kaewkamnard said authorities has to carefully consider the matter because there are a lot of important installations in the area such as embassies, schools and hospitals.

"CRES postpones cutting off water, power supplies to Ratchaprasong", Bangkok Post, May 12, 2010

Looking at the map of the area (by Richard Barrow) you can see that there are many important building like the British Embassy and the Police General Hospital. And after the Chula Hospital fiasco certainly it would be bad press to have another hospital being disrupted - at least they must have been noticed before and plans for relocation of the patients must have been made already, but none of that happened.

It seemed that this measures would have done more harm to the residents in that area than it does on the protesters.

"Firstly, we are using our own electricity generators, so we are not dependent on the public power source," said one, Jatuporn Prompan. "Secondly, if the government decides to cut water ... this will also affect half of the city. So we do not care about the government's threat."

"Thai gov't to cut water, power to protesters", Associated Press, May 12, 2010

Weren't they thinking of that before? How bad is their intelligence? All in all I seriously ask whose knee-jerk reaction it initially was? Was it Abhisit who made his first own ultimatum to the red shirt leaders and thus caught the army off-guard? Or was it the CRES' idea but did not think that through and actually talked to the public utility companies? Either way, they made themselves look foolish and gave the red shirts a small victory.

Meanwhile, the government made clear again that they are fed up with red shirts answer (or the lack of it) to the 'reconciliation roadmap' by calling off the proposed November 14 election date. While the deal itself is not yet off the table the proposed timeframe of dissolving parliament in September and then to call snap polls for November 14 is now dead. Abhisit has earlier mentioned that he would carry on with his 'roadmap' but then apparently without the consensus of the red shirts.

In other news, the red leaders have denied ongoing persistent rumors of a split in the leadership of the movement as it was reported that one of them, Veera Musikapong, has quit (on his own or not) from the red shirts. Veera has not been seen for several days on stage now, but Dr. Weng Tojirakarn assured that he would be just ill and he'll be back soon.

All in all, it was actually an anticlimactic day thanks to a major screw-up by the government. Nevertheless, we are not back at square one as Ms. Callan tweeted before - both sides have hardened their stances (again) and the red sides have a leadership problem among themselves again. Let's see if the government get their act together and start to put pressure on the red shirts - effectively! But on the other hand...

As today is an auspicious day it is unlikely that there will be an army crackdown in the coming hours.

Tweet by Richard Barrow (@RichardBarrow)

Nevertheless, right now at this moment...

Ratchaprasong rocking out this am in all it's electrified and hydrated glory. Louder music than normal. #redshirts

Tweet by Anasuya Sanyal (@Anasuya), Channel News Asia

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PM Abhisit Gives Reds Ultimatum to Disperse

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva issued an ultimatum to the red shirts to leave the Rajprasong protest site by today after their failure to honour their commitment to end the protest (...) The government would step up measures to force them to leave the areas and such measures might also affect people who live and do business there, he said. "If they have sincerely accepted the road map for national reconciliation as announced earlier, the protesters should go home by May 12 and we can discuss other matters in detail later," Abhisit told reporters.

"PM to red shirts: Leave today", The Nation, May 12, 2010

A source at the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation said the new school term was another reason to clear the area. Most schools are due to resume on Monday.

The source said if UDD leaders do not end their protest today, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban would consult army chief Anupong Paojinda about measures to end the protest. However, the source said the CRES yesterday did not discuss mobilising security forces against the red shirts.

The new army plans include cutting off water and electricity supplies to the Ratchaprasong area to put more pressure on the red shirts to go home. Security forces would surround the rally site and prevent more red shirt supporters from taking part.

"Irked PM says 'rally ends today'", Bangkok Post, May 12, 2010

This decision, the first ultimatum that was directly issued by Abhisit himself, comes after the red shirt leaders have again insisted that deputy prime minister Suthep to report himself to the Police's Crime Suppression Division and not the Department of Special Investigation (same claim as Monday).

The red shirts have driven themselves into a dead-end after stubbornly leaving everybody waiting, hardly agreeing themselves on what to do with the PM's roadmap offer (and also showing an internal conflict among the leaders) and in the end to break down because Suthep has to report himself to one law enforcement agency and not the other one...!

We have to wait for today's events if this new battle of attrition will take long for the protesters to leave and the leaders to give in. A violent crackdown is unlikely at this moment, but don't tell that to the hardliners and stranger things have already happened.

Further reading:

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Red Shirts Still Not Quite Ready To Disperse Yet...

One week after prime minister Abhisit has offered his roadmap to reconciliation and days of back-door discussions, counter-demands and also opposition by the yellow shirts, the red shirt leaders have concluded their discussions amongst themselves and went on stage to say that they accept the November 14 election date, but have set up their own five-point plan, without outlining them all but they have announced a few key points like...

The red-shirts accepted PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's offer of 14 November polls but said they would not go home until the deputy PM surrendered to police. They say Suthep Thaungsuban must answer for the deaths of protesters in a 10 April clash.

Mr Abhisit had given the red-shirts a Monday deadline to respond to his plan. (...)

At a news conference, the red-shirts said they broadly accepted the timeframe laid down in the road-map. But they said that they wanted to ensure there were no double standards in the repercussions before agreeing to close down their protests.

They said many of their members had been accused of terrorism or been subject to arrest warrants, so Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep should be subject to the same scrutiny. Mr Abhisit has parliamentary immunity but Mr Suthep should surrender to police to face accusations of murder, they said.

Mr Suthep was in charge of security operations on 10 April, when 25 people were killed in a failed attempt to disperse protesters. His role was subsequently given to army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda.

"If Suthep refuses to surrender himself to police, we refuse to end the rally," red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told reporters. "If Suthep surrenders to police, then we will go home."

A government spokesman says the deputy prime minister will meet the head of special investigations on Tuesday to hear the accusations levelled against him.

But the BBC's South East Asia correspondent, Rachel Harvey, says it is not clear whether or not this is in response to the protesters' demands or part of a complex deal that has been rumoured to be in the offing for days.

"Thailand red-shirts set out new conditions", BBC News, May 10, 2010

Fact is, Suthep will go and meet the head of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), and probably not 'surrender' himself to them as The Nation calls it. There is doubt if this will be enough for the red shirts to see this condition fulfilled, but later that evening it was clear that it was not.

เมื่อ เวลา 22.00 น. (...) นายจตุพร พรหมพันธุ์ แกนนำ นปช. ปราศรัยว่า กรณีนายสุเทพจะไปพบอธิบดีดีเอสไอวันที่ 11 พฤษภาคม ถือเป็นการหลอกต้มคนเสื้อแดงทั่วประเทศ เนื่องจากคดีสั่งฆ่าประชาชนนั้น ยังไม่มีการรับเป็นคดีพิเศษ การไปของนายสุเทพจึงเป็นการไปนั่งกินกาแฟกับนายธาริตมากกว่า นายสุเทพต้องไปมอบตัวต่อตำรวจกองปราบปรามสถานเดียว

At 10 PM (...) red shirt leader Jatuporn Phromphan said on stage that "[if] Suthep will meet the director of the DSI on May 11th, it will be a lie to all red shirts in the country," since the case of the order to kill citizens [on April 10th] has not been made to a special case yet. "This meeting between Suthep and Tharit will probably be just a coffee party. Suthep has to hand himself to the Police's Crime Suppression Division."

"นปช.ยึกยักเลิกชุมนุม ลั่น"เทพเทือก"ต้องมอบตัวตร.สถานเดียว จวกไปดีเอสไอหลอกลวงแดงทั้งแผ่นดิน", Matichon, May 10, 2010

Just to give some context, the Department of Special Investigation is a branch of the Ministry of Justice, whereas the Crime Suppression Division is a branch of the Crime Investigation Bureau of the Royal Thai Police. Whether the DSI's investigation will lead to anywhere even close to an indictment is to be doubted. The problem is also that the DSI has more or less taken over the case against the PM and Suthep and has additionally accepted a formal complaint from a Puea Thai Party spokesperson, who represents some relatives of the victims killed during the April 10 clashes. Thus, the red shirts leaders are more or less demanding the case against Suthep to be handed back to the police's Crime Suppression Division.

One other central demand of the red leaders is that the government should put their TV channel PTV back on air, after it has been yanked off the air several times.

One of the five points in Abhisit's road map is media reform. The red shirts have agreed to join the scheme but demand the same treatment as rival ASTV, the main mouthpiece for the rival yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). "It's good to have an independent body that takes care of media content, in order to prevent provocations and champion reconciliation," Natthawut said. "PTV is prepared to follow the body's instructions if ASTV does."

"Ball back in reds' court", The Nation, May 11, 2010

Prior to the announcement there were rumors spread by Khattiya Sawasdipol, a pro-red Major General widely known as 'Seh Daeng' (more on him in a future blog post), that the red shirt leaders have been sacked by former prime minister and alleged puppet master of the red shirts Thaksin Shinawatra and replaced by new ones. But this was, of course, denied very quickly.

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