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Exiled Thai academic accuses military junta of threatening his family

Originally published at Asian Correspondent on February 25, 2016

The Thai military has allegedly threatened the family of self-exiled academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Associate Professor at the Center for South East Asian Studies at Kyoto University and currently a visiting scholar at the University of Cambridge.

The scholar wrote on his Facebook profile on Wednesday evening that army officers have appeared at his house and called one of his sisters, demanding them to tell Pavin to "stop all activities overseas" – especially "talking about the monarchy" – or else his "family will have to bear the consequences" and demanded his entire family to "report themselves at the army camp".

AFP's Southeast Asia correspondent Jerome Taylor tweeted Thursday that junta spokesperson Colonel Winthai Suvaree told the agency that he had no information on authorities' contact with Pavin's family.

Pavin is known for his outspokenness on Thai politics – including the monarchy – and even more so since the Thai military summoned him among hundreds of other academics, politicians and journalists in the aftermath of the 2014 coup, while he was based in Japan at that time. He openly refused to comply and, in his typical mischievous online manner, replied mockingly on Facebook if he could send his pet dog instead.

Shortly thereafter, the military junta revoked Pavin's passport, practically exiling him. But that didn't stop him from slamming them in numerous opinion pieces in the foreign press and also traveling abroad, giving lectures and participating in academic events discussing the current state of Thai politics. One of these events was this Wednesday on the future of the Thai monarchy at Oxford University, which was the likely cause for the Thai military's alleged harassment of Pavin's family. In the past, Pavin has accused Thai authorities, through their consulates and embassies, to have attempted to sabotage these public events either by discouraging Thai students from attending or pressuring the hosting universities to cancel.

Furthermore, Thai authorities have attempted to ask Japan to extradite Pavin on the premise that not only did he not comply with the military summons, but also that some of his articles were deemed "insulting to the monarchy" or lèse majesté, an offense punishable with up to 15 years in jail and rigorously (ab)used under the current military government. The junta has also asked other countries like New Zealand and France for extradition of lèse majesté suspects that have fled Thailand.

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Public seminar on ‘Democracy and Freedom of Expression’ in Ubon Ratchathani

By Saksith Saiyasombut There were a few events and discussion panels on freedom of speech and how the lèse majesté laws is heavily contributing to the continuous deterioration of that in Thailand in recent years. There was the panel discussion with Sulak, Pravit, Marshall and Anderson hosted by Siam Voices contributor Lisa Gardner, then at the FCCT (where the former event was initially supposed to take place) held an event with Professor Tongchai Winichakul and Professor Andrew Walker earlier this week. Also, Al Jazeera English devoted a whole episode of their weekly "101 East" program on Thailand's draconian Article 112 (lèse majesté), including a panel talk with Sulak, a hapless Panitan Wattanayagorn (government spokesperson under Abhisit and now back being an academic) and the dimwitted statements of Dr. Tul Sitthisomwong (leader of the reactionary, pro-112 multi color shirts).

On this coming Friday there's another public event, that discusses all of the above. However, this time it is a little bit different: First off it takes place in Ubon Ratchathani, and secondly it widens the scope not only on lèse majesté, but also on whether or not democratic values, human rights and personal freedom are actually compatible with Thai culture. The speakers are well-known to regular observers and readers:  Thitinan Pongsudhirak, one of the most quoted academic on Thai politics, Prachatai's Chiranuch "Jiew" Premchaiporn, Preut Taotawin and Pavin Chachavalpongpun, currently one of the most active academics and also a staunch activist against 112 - not without consequences. The even is hosted by Dr. Titipol Phakdeewanich, academic and Bangkok Post contributor.

Blurb down here or on the Facebook event page.

A Public Seminar: ‘Democracy and Freedom of Expression’ (in Thai only)

Friday the 22nd of June 2012, from 9.00 am – 1.30 pm Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University

The event is funded by the European Union (EU)

The seminar aims to promote a better understanding of the ways in which democracy, freedom of speech, and human rights are interconnected and cannot be separated if there is to be effective and tangible progress in this regard. The dialogue on this topic will aim towards a clear understanding of the importance of long-term goals in providing a sense of direction and purpose in relation to the promotion of the levels of both political participation and political awareness of the Thai population.

Since the 2006 coup d'état, we have continued to observe the problem of having human rights being more properly respected in a country, which has developed increasingly entrenched colour-code politics. Furthermore, the debate over the reform of ‘Article 112’ has become highly politicised, which has acted to distract from the key principle of promoting human rights.

08.30 – 09.00 am Registration and Coffee

09.00 – 09.20 am Welcoming remarks: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chaiyan Ratchakul, Dean of the Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University

09.20 – 10.45 am: Speakers

"The importance of freedom of expression in a democratic society" Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University

"Freedom of the media in Thailand: challenges and prospects" Ms. Chiranuch Premchaiporn, Director of Prachatai

"Freedom of Expression: Does it exist in Thailand?" Dr. Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Associate Professor at the Centre for South-east Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Japan

"Grassroots perspectives on freedom of expression and democracy in Thailand" Assistant Professor. Preut Taotawin, Lecturer at the Faculty of Liberal Arts, Ubon ratchathani University

Moderator Dr. Titipol Phakdeewanich, Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University

10.45 – 1.30 am: Q & A, Discussion

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Analysis: Is Thailand's military compromising for the sake of reconciliation?

Originally published at Siam Voices on May 18, 2012 The East Asia Forum recently published a column on the current political role of Thailand's military written by John Blaxland, Senior Fellow at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University with 30 years of service experience with the Australian Military and also a graduate of the Royal Thai Army Command and Staff College. In short: Dr. Blaxland has lots of military experience.

In the column, also republished in The Australian, he criticizes "the classic Western liberal tendency of painting complex situations in black-and-white terms" where the Thai military is being portrayed power-hungry, coup-happy force. Blaxland takes the 2006 military coup and its consequences as precedence for the Thai armed forces to be hesitant to stage another one, despite repeated cycles of rampant rumors.

Blaxland assumes that the military acted on their own in September 2006, although many heavily disagree with this notion. He also notes that the 2008 change of government was merely an act among political parties, not mentioning the fact that the Democrat-Bhum Jai Thai coalition was reportedly brokered in the residence of then-army chief General Anupong Paochinda and in presence of his successor and then-chief-of-staff General Prayuth Chan-ocha.

However, the key part of this column is this:

Some say that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has had little success in pushing for greater civilian control over the military since this time. But there has been some change, most notably through the appointment of a pro-Thaksin general as defence minister. In addition, the new army chief, General Prayuth Chan-o-Cha, has avoided overstepping constitutional boundaries and has been largely compliant — despite some bluster and a perception that he would be harsher than his predecessor, General Anupong.

There are now several possible scenarios for the future. It appears the military has arrived at a point of recognition — that they have to maintain stability, particularly until the royal succession is completed. That means they may have to compromise a little — and the military has publicly shown respect for the elected government. This respect has been reciprocated through placatory actions and statements by the Yingluck administration.

"Reconsidering the role of the military in Thailand", by John Blaxland, East Asia Forum, April 26, 2012

One problem with Blaxland's assessment on Thailand's military is that he views the armed forces as a monolithic organization, while in reality it has always been factionalized between different regiments and army prep school classes - key factors when it comes to the annual reshuffles and promotions. Rivalries between these are often a source for potential inner-circle conflict, as the issue with the so-called 'watermelon soldiers' during the 2010 red shirt protests have shown. Although there are now measures being undertaken to address this issue like wide-reaching surveys and supporting promotions of officers from other classes.

But there is one major omission (deliberately or not) by Blaxland on the role of the Thai military in the political landscape: the top priority of Thailand's armed forces is to serve and protect the monarchy (see above), which has been repeatedly emphasized under current army chief Prayuth more than ever, who sees Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters as its biggest threat.

Even before the election victory of Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party there have been talks between Thaksin's camp, the military and representatives of the palace to broker a deal, which is now being widely regarded as a détente between the current government and the military:

Since then Yingluck Shinawatra, Mr. Thaksin’s younger sister, has governed. Under her premiership, an uneasy truce has taken hold, but crucial steps are needed before Thailand can arrive at a genuine reconciliation among competing political factions and the military after years of protracted tumult.

Under the current unspoken truce terms, the Yingluck government has gone out of its way not to challenge the army’s high command and to ensure the monarchy remains sacrosanct in Thailand’s hierarchical society. Challenges against the monarchy must be put down through draconian lese-majeste laws. In return, she gets to rule without the crippling street protests by colorful royalists as happened in the recent past and Mr. Thaksin has to remain in exile.

"Thitinan: From Truce to Reconciliation in Thailand", by Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Wall Street Journal, May 6, 2012

In short, the military will not intervene in the Yingluck administration and potentially also tolerate a return of Thaksin to Thailand, while the government will not try to upset the military officers by actions such as prosecuting those involved in the killings of red shirt protesters in 2010. Another key issue that will not be touched is the lèse majesté law, as Yingluck herself has repeatedly stated that her government will not amend the draconian Article 112. Even the recent death of 'Uncle SMS' in prison could not sway her, much to the dismay of her supporter base.

Blaxland also overestimates the appointment of Air Chief Marshal Sukumpol Suwannathat as the defense minister, despite his closeness to Thaksin, since there are laws that gives the military the upper hand, such as the Defence Ministry Administration Act (sic!):

Gen Prayuth is under the protection of the Defence Ministry Administration Act which has been in effect from the time Privy Councillor Gen Surayud Chulanont became prime minister after the 2006 coup. This law is specifically designed to block politicians from tampering with reshuffle decisions made by the armed forces.

The act does not give power to the defence minister in calling the shots in military appointments and promotions. Its Article 25 places leaves that task with the Defence Committee to make decisions on military reshuffles.

The panel comprises the defence minister, a deputy minister, the permanent secretary for defence, the supreme commander and the three armed forces chiefs army, air force and navy. At present there is no deputy defence minister, so the committee has only six members. At the committee's meetings, all officers to be reshuffled must have the signed approval of all panel members _ except the defence minister's; he must act as chairman of the meeting so that later, in his capacity as defence minister, he cannot make any changes to the list when it goes to the cabinet. According to the act, once the list is approved by the committee, it has to be left untouched.

"Tigers of the East secure a roaring hurrah", Bangkok Post, October 6, 2011

There are attempts at the moment to amend the Defence Ministry Administration Act by defense minister Sukampol - whether or not this will pass is an entirely different matter, let alone how the military will react on it. And in general, the current relative tranquility between the military and the civilian side is only because the lines have been clearly drawn and any overstepping of these boundaries of authority will be met with scorn.

This is a status quo that is being upheld as a necessary inconvenience (and in that regard Blaxland is right) between the two in order for a smooth royal succession - which does not mean however that all factions are not preparing quietly to be in the best position for the time after that. These are the shades of grey in the Thai political landscape that are not to be left in the pitch-black darkness.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Hamburg, Germany. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and on Facebook here.

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Thammasat University split as it debates for and against Nitirat

By Saksith Saiyasombut

The debates over the Nitirat group's proposals to amend the constitution and the lèse majesté law have become considerably heated and in parts downright ugly over the past weeks. Thammasat University became the venue and the center of controversy as most of the lectures of the group (consisting of 7 Thammasat law lectures) have taken place at that university and lately been banned by the administration, fearing that the university could be "mistaken to organize these events" or even seen to "agree with the movement".

The ban from the camps of "any activities related to the lese majeste law" has cast a large shadow over the university's stance on academic freedom. Ever since then, there are signs that its students and alumni are taking a stand for and against the ban and for and against the proposals of the Nitirat group themselves.

Tuesday was exemplary for this divide as two different groups were rallying on two different campuses of the university:

More than 200 current and former student members of the Journalism and Mass Communication Faculty staged a rally against Nitirat at the Tha Phrachan campus. Students and lecturers from other faculties and supporters joined in the demonstration.

They were countered by a group of students who gathered at Thammasat's Rangsit campus in Pathum Thani who oppose the ban on Nitirat. The group will hold a rally at Tha Phrachan campus on Sunday. (...) about 10 students came out to oppose the ban, saying it restricted freedom of speech.

"Nitirat ban splits student body", Bangkok Post, February 2, 2012

First off, let me express my astonishment that of all people, journalists and those striving to become one, should know better than anyone how important the subject of lèse majesté is and how threatening it is to their creed - the more mind-boggling and revealing it is to see these people rallying with posters (see above) like "Journalism [Faculty] against Nitirat", "Nitirat is not Thammasat, Thammasat is not Nitirat" and "Don't let knowledge distort morality!"

They called during a rally for members of the Thammsat community to oppose Nitirat's proposal for the amendment of Section 112 of the Criminal Code, for the university to launch a legal and disciplinary investigation of the seven law lecturers, for the mass media to exercise discretion in presenting information on the proposed amendment, and for people in all walks of life to oppose any move deemed insulting to the monarchy.

"Journalism students oppose Nitirat", Bangkok Post , February 2, 2012

Following the Thai Journalists Association welcoming (last sentence) last week's decision by Twitter to filter out tweets on a country-by-country basis (and Thailand rushing to endorse it), today's protest by journalism students against amendments to the ambiguous, but draconian lèse majesté law is a declaration of moral bankruptcy by Thailand's journalism.

For Thammasat University, considering its history and that it was once considered to be a beacon of liberal thinking, human rights and democratic freedom in Thailand, it is a dangerous walk on the tight rope. While its rector has given refuge to a young girl called "Kanthoop", who has been over the years witch-hunted by ultra-royalists and has to face a lèse majesté complaint, the university is risking to lose all its liberal credibility with the ban of the Nitirat group. In general this debate will test the ability of all Thais to listen and at least acknowledge opposing views and uncomfortable opinions - the outcome is yet to be expected.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Hamburg, Germany. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and also on his public Facebook page here.

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Video: 'Challenging the Sovereign Narrative' - (Social) Media in the Thai Political Crisis

Originally published at Siam Voices on December 23, 2011 (Note: This post was supposed to be up much, much earlier but was pushed back due to the floods and the re-relocation of the author back to Germany. Apologies to all involved for the momentous delay!)

Back in late September I was invited to hold a talk at Payap University in Chiang Mai and I chose to talk about a (social) media topic with the focus on the the 2010 anti-government Red Shirts' Protests, the knee-jerk demonizing of foreign media and what role social media played in this, if at all.

The talk is about 45 minutes long and includes 15 minutes of Q&A. The original full abstract can be found below the video.

Again, thanks to the people at Payap University for the invitation and organizing the event, especially Adam Dedman, Jessica Loh and Paul Chambers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzrtubI8cZM

Challenging the Sovereign Narrative – Media Perceptions of the Thai Political Crisis and the (missing) Role of Social Media”

Speaker: Saksith Saiyasombut

When: Tuesday, 27 September 2011, 5-6pm

Place: Room 317, Pentecost Building, Mae Khao main campus, Payap University

The Kingdom of Thailand rarely pops up on the global news landscape and if so, then it is mostly for a so-called ‘soft’ story. In recent years though, political struggles, often escalating in violent protests on the streets of Bangkok, have dominated the airwaves of the international media outlets, only to disappear shortly after the protests have ended. With the Thai political crisis dragging on for several years now, reporters are struggling to properly report and explain the situation without simplifying this to just a color-coded conflict between two opposing groups. In particular, the anti-government Red Shirt protests of 2010 were a watershed moment for how Thailand and its political crisis are regarded, with many Thais objecting to the foreign media’s coverage, as much as to openly vilify the international TV news networks. On the other hand, the domestic media have failed in its role to objectively explain and provide context to the political developments of recent years.

The more important issue is the rise of social media to counter a sovereign narrative of the mainstream and state media – however, Thailand has yet to see a grassroots revolution fueled by the Internet. Nevertheless, online services like Twitter and Facebook provide Thais a way to read and express alternative viewpoints and also a platform to  fill the journalistic void left by other media outlets, but are threatened by the country’s ambiguously written Computer Crimes Act and lèse majesté law.

This talk looks at the perceptions of the international and domestic media of the Thai political crisis and why this struggle has not translated into an online uprising yet and aims to examine opportunities for “filling in the blanks” left by the mainstream media.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai political blogger and journalist. He wrote for his hometown newspapers Weser Kurier and Weser Report in Bremen, Germany, before working as an editorial assistant for Asia News Network and contributing reporter at The Nation. He started blogging about Thai politics on his personal website  www.saiyasombut.com in early 2010 and since September 2010, Saksith now writes for Siam Voices, a collaborative blog on Thai current affairs on the regional blog and news network Asian Correspondent. He is also currently a graduate student of Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Hamburg, Germany.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Hamburg, Germany. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and also on his public Facebook page here.

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Announcing: Talk at Payap University on September 27, 2011

This is an open event, anyone is invited to come and you can RSVP on the Facebook event page. Also, you have any suggestions and hints for material, links, videos etc. send me an email, tweet or post on my Facebook page.

"Challenging the Sovereign Narrative - Media Perceptions of the Thai Political Crisis and the (missing) Role of Social Media"

Speaker: Saksith Saiyasombut

When: Tuesday, 27 September 2011, 5-6pm

Place: Room 317, Pentecost Building, Mae Khao main campus, Payap University

The Kingdom of Thailand rarely pops up on the global news landscape and if so, then it is mostly for a so-called ‘soft’ story. In recent years though, political struggles, often escalating in violent protests on the streets of Bangkok, have dominated the airwaves of the international media outlets, only to disappear shortly after the protests have ended. With the Thai political crisis dragging on for several years now, reporters are struggling to properly report and explain the situation without simplifying this to just a color-coded conflict between two opposing groups. In particular, the anti-government Red Shirt protests of 2010 were a watershed moment for how Thailand and its political crisis are regarded, with many Thais objecting to the foreign media's coverage, as much as to openly vilify the international TV news networks. On the other hand, the domestic media have failed in its role to objectively explain and provide context to the political developments of recent years.

The more important issue is the rise of social media to counter a sovereign narrative of the mainstream and state media - however, Thailand has yet to see a grassroots revolution fueled by the Internet. Nevertheless, online services like Twitter and Facebook provide Thais a way to read and express alternative viewpoints and also a platform to  fill the journalistic void left by other media outlets, but are threatened by the country’s ambiguously written Computer Crimes Act and lèse majesté law.

This talk looks at the perceptions of the international and domestic media of the Thai political crisis and why this struggle has not translated into an online uprising yet and aims to examine opportunities for "filling in the blanks" left by the mainstream media.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai political blogger and journalist. He wrote for his hometown newspapers Weser Kurier and Weser Report in Bremen, Germany, before working as an editorial assistant for Asia News Network and contributing reporter at The Nation. He started blogging about Thai politics on his personal website  www.saiyasombut.com in early 2010 and since September 2010, Saksith now writes for Siam Voices, a collaborative blog on Thai current affairs on the regional blog and news network Asian Correspondent. He is also currently a graduate student of Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Hamburg, Germany.

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'Justice Delayed, Justice Denied' - A public seminar on last year's violence and what has (not) happened since

Originally published at Siam Voices on June 27, 2011

A public seminar has criticized the government that little to nothing has happened in the official investigations of the deaths during the red shirt protests of April and May 2010. The event, organized by the People's Information Center: April - May 2010 (PIC) was held at Thammasat University on Saturday and consisted of  lectures, panel discussions and accounts by victims and their relatives. During the nine and a half weeks between March until April of red shirt protests, 92 were killed and over 2,000 people were injured. Several federal commissions and groups have launched investigations, but so far have come up with inconclusive or contradictory results, if any at all.

In his opening speech, PIC's Chathawat Tulathon complains that the government's intention tends more to "reconciliation than on actual justice". He also criticizes the government's repeated obsession to blame everything on the so-called 'black shirts', an alleged armed vigilante groups who have targeted soldiers, protesters and civilians, as recently shown at the Democrat Party's rally at Rajaprasong a few days prior to the event. Chathawat points out that the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has set up three fact-finding committees, but have failed to publish any findings. On the issue of people injured during the protests, Chatawat claims that there could be more affected than the over 2,000 recorded injured, and that long-term damage, both physical and psychological, is a problem. So is the problem of people gone missing: "We have at least five missing people, confirmed by their relatives," he said. "We conclude that no progress has been made at all."

One substantial part of the problem, according to Thammasat's Sawatree Suksri, is the "cycle of delays" between the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) and the National Police Department in the inquiries of the deaths. Sawatree accuses the DSI of "going around in circles for months, just to hand back the cases to the National Police on November 15, 2010." "It's been 402 days [since May 19, 2010 and June 25, 2011] ever since and nothing has happened," she laments, "justice delayed, justice denied!"

Bangkok was not the only place to see violence on May 19, 2010, there have been reports of riots in several other cities in the country as well, most notably Ubon Ratchathani, where the city hall was supposedly burned down by arsonists. Sanoh Charoenporn of Ubon Ratchathani University shows, with the help of video clips, that a mob was protesting at the fence of the city hall compound when a row of police officers were replaced by soldiers and, given what happened that day in the capital, were angered by their presence. The situation deteriorated when several people of the mob climbed over the fence and got into the compound, only to be chased away by gunshots, which were supposedly coming from "10 men with long rifles", who were seen walking down from the upper floors of the city hall Building. Five people were injured in the process and only about 20 rioters were inside the compound, when the fire broke out notably beginning on the upper floors. Sanoh argues that after the incident local police have indiscriminately targeted and arrested members of a local red shirt group and have threatened them to a false confession.

The morning session concluded in an official statement by the PIC, pointing out that with an election coming closer, the "shrill shouts for reconciliation are getting louder, (...) but until today 'reconciliation' means forgetting or keeping still about injustice, about the pain suffered, about the damage those in power have done to the people, (...) reconciliation in Thailand has never been based on justice and the truth not even once!"

The whole seminar, including the parts not covered in this post, can be watched on YouTube here: Part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5, part 6, part 7, part 8, part 9, part 10, part 11. A report about the witness accounts of victims and their relatives can be found at Prachatai.

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Housekeeping: Panel, Berlin & Guest-Blogging

Got some housekeeping announcements here for you: First off, the panel discussion we have hosted here in Hamburg last Monday went really well! I will write a round-up about this event (and the academic conference in Trier as well) soon, because secondly...

I'll be on the road again for the next few days, this time to a workshop at Humboldt University in Berlin about the Thai political crisis (they even have the same title "Thailand am Scheideweg" as ours!). They don't have a website for this event but you can read the programme here (PDF). I'll also give a little talk about myself and about the panel in Hamburg.

And finally, political blogger Bangkok Pundit has announced that he'll take some time off during the next few weeks. I'm happy to announce that I will be guest blogging for him during his break alongside other well-known bloggers. I want to thank Bangkok Pundit and his blogging platform AsianCorrespondent (AC) for this opportunity! Naturally, there'll be some slight chances. During the time of my guest blogging, most articles will be published on AC first and then on this blog one or two days later. Certain topics such as academia and general housekeeping will stay here.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter (@Saksith) for all the latest posts (and rants).

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Talk on Thai Politics and Military at Payap University, Chiang Mai

The Thai and Southeast Asian Studies Program at Payap University is proud to announce the following special lecture as part of "PAYAP PRESENTS," a regular lecture series (in English) featuring scholars working on Southeast Asia. FREE AND OPEN TO THE PUBLIC

"Thailand in Crisis: Resurgent Military, Diminished Democracy, and Future Possibilities"

Speaker: Paul Chambers, Ph.D.

One of the foremost experts on civil-military relations in Southeast Asia, Dr. Chambers is concurrently Senior Research Fellow, Politics Institute, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany, and Senior Researcher, the Thai and Southeast Asian Studies Program, Payap University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

When: Thursday, 8 July 2010

Time: 5pm to 6pm

Room 317, Pentecost Building (formerly the Graduate and International Studies Building), Mae Khao Campus (behind Carrefour), Payap University

Overview of talk:

Thailand's political winds are blowing ever stronger as forces either defending the status quo or seeking change brace themselves for an imminent critical juncture. The growing partisan divide has facilitated greater military incisions over civilian decision-making domains, bestowing a preponderance of power upon soldiers as opposed to elected representatives. The result has been an erosion of democracy amidst already-intensified political instability. Though the military is not monolithically supportive of either side, the far majority of soldiers (especially those in positions of power) are inclined toward the status quo. In this presentation, Dr. Chambers examines contemporary civil-military relations in Thailand, the state of unity in the Thai armed forces, and potential political outcomes. He argues that, with enhanced uncertainty hanging in the air, Thai politics remain extremely fluid, the only surety being a heightened political role for Thailand's military.

Please note that there is a new PAYAP PRESENTS website where you can find more information about this talk as well as past and future talks: http://ic.payap.ac.th/pp

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UPDATE: Venue Changed! – Announcing: Panel on the Thai Political Crisis at the University of Hamburg

Note: Official announcement in German language below.

I'm happy to announce one of the reasons why I have been very busy the last few weeks: The student body of the faculty of Thai Studies at the University Hamburg, Germany (which I'm a member of) are hosting a panel discussion on the ongoing political crisis in Thailand. Since events of this kind about this topic on an academic level are rare in Germany, this is a great opportunity to fill this void.

We have invited, in my opinion, the best German-speaking experts on Thailand to discuss the causes, the protagonists, the issues of the political situation and are also trying to answer the question, if there is a way out of it.

The speakers are Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, political scientist at the University of Hildesheim and Dr. Marco Bünte, research fellow with the GIGA Institute of Asian Studies. Oh, and some Thai blogger is also on the panel...

Prof. Volker Grabowsky, head of the department of Southeast Asian Studies, will give an introductory essay.

The title of the event is "Thailand am Scheideweg?" ("Thailand at the Crossroads?") and takes place on Monday, 5 July 2010 at 18.30h at lecture room C in the main building at the University of Hamburg. Note: this event is in German.

If you know anybody in or near Hamburg, please pass this on to them!

------------------------Official German announcement------------------------

Der Fachschaftsrat der Thaiistik an der Universität Hamburg lädt ein:

"Thailand am Scheideweg?" Podiumsdiskussion zur politischen Krise in Thailand

Diskussionsteilnehmer: Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, Universität Hildesheim Dr. Marco Bünte, GIGA-Institut für Asienstudien Saksith Saiyasombut, Student und Blogger

Einleitender Vortrag: Prof. Dr. Volker Grabowsky, Leiter der Abteilung Südostasien, Universität Hamburg

Für zwei Monate waren große Teile Bangkoks von den größten politischen Demonstrationen des Landes lahm gelegt worden. Die so genannte „Vereinigte Front für Demokratie und gegen Diktatur“ (UDD), auch bekannt als die „Rothemden“, protestierte gegen die Regierung von Premierminister Abhisit Veijajiva und forderte diese auf, das Parlament aufzulösen und Neuwahlen auszurufen. Die Proteste wurden am 19. Mai 2010 nach einer mehrtägigen militärischen Operation aufgelöst. Insgesamt kamen bei gewaltsamen Ausschreitungen in den zwei Monaten über 85 Menschen ums Leben, über 2000 wurden verletzt. Seit dem Militärputsch gegen den damaligen Premierminister Thaksin Shinawatra im Jahr 2006 befindet sich das Königreich Thailand in einer politischen Krise, die das Land immer mehr in zwei politische Lager spaltet.

Die Abteilung Sprachen und Kulturen Südostasiens und der Fachschaftsrat Thaiistik an der Universität Hamburg lädt zu einer Podiumsdiskussion mit Thailand-Experten ein, um zu ergründen, wie es weiter in Thailand gehen soll. Wie konnte es zu dieser politischen Krise kommen? Wer sind diese politischen Fronten und was sind ihre Positionen? Hat die Demokratie in Thailand noch eine Chance?

Zeit: Montag, 5. Juli 2010, 18.30 Uhr bis 20.30 Uhr Ort: Hörsaal C, Hauptgebäude, Universität Hamburg, Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1, 20146 Hamburg

:)

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Chambers: The Challenges for Thailand’s Military

New Mandala has posted a guest article by Paul Chambers, a senior research fellow at the University of Heidelberg, Germany and an expert on civil-military relations in southeast Asia, about the Thai military and its upcoming challenges. Key excerpt:

In the aftermath of the May 19 victory over the Red Shirts and Thaksin, Thailand’s military officer corps appears united above, but fissured below. (...) But the perils facing the Queen's Guard will be less likely to arise from Thailand’s elected civilian governments given their temporary and frail character—especially with Thaksin still on the run. Rather, the clique’s greatest challenge will be to diminish internal military resentment from junior officers and thus ensure its enhanced control over the armed forces. If Prem and Surayud successfully balance various military classes to perpetuate Queen’s Guard military control, then some semblance of unity within an arch-royalist armed forces may well persevere. Yet if such balancing is not undertaken or proves unsuccessful, then internal military divisions could become increasingly violent.

"The challenges for Thailand’s arch-royalist military", by Paul Chambers, New Mandala, June 9, 2010

Chambers give a very detailed account into the structure of the army's current top command line, its origin and what lies ahead. I recommend you to read it.

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