Thailand’s Groundhog Day: Rumors of a military coup
Originally published at Siam Voices on February 2, 2011 Thailand faces an increased amount of rumors about a military coup again in the last few weeks with the latest being spewed out by Admiral Bannawit Kengrian:
The countdown to another military coup has begun, former deputy permanent secretary for defence Admiral Bannawit Kengrian said on Tuesday. [...] He said there were several reasons for the military to stage a coup.
There were many failures in the political sector. The people could no longer rely on politicians., independent agencies were weak, people banned from politics could still direct political activities and the Election Commission could not do anything about them.
Many groups of people of different political colours were out on the streets. Seeing no way out, the people would look to the military to break the impasse.
"Bannawit: Coup countdown has begun", Bangkok Post, February 1, 2011
So far, so predictable. The scenario Bannawit draws here has been going on for months now and with the red shirts regularly rallying and the yellow shirts now camping out for over a week now, things don't seem to change. But here is where his hypothesis beings to fall apart:
"The situation in this country is no different to that in Egypt. The people can no longer tolerate the political system and their protests are always fruitless. So they turn to the military," Adm Bannawit said. (...)
But from his experience in taking part in the 2006 coup, and several previous ones, and his personal acquaintance with nearly every politician and military officer, there were signs of a coup.
This time, it was the people that would join hands with the military to revolutionize the country and to stop the wicked cycle of politics. (...)
"Bannawit: Coup countdown has begun", Bangkok Post, February 1, 2011
It seems to be popular at the moment to draw parallels to the popular revolts in Tunisia and Egypt with Thailand. I hope to elaborate on this topic at a later point, but I can already say that this assertion doesn't really hold up. I'm especially certain that only a marginal size will side with the Thai army and I'm highly doubtful that the army is a constructive element to break free a political deadlock - at least he wasn't talking about democracy.
Also mentioned earlier, the rumors of a imminent coup are being thrown around in an almost inflationary amount in the last few weeks, almost a carbon copy of last year as pointed out by fellow Siam Voices writer Newley Purnell. It begun with red shirt co-leader and Puea Thai MP Jatuporn Prompan drawing his conclusions from a meeting of high-ranking military officers, then all sides (even his own party) denying his claims, followed up by a soothsayer (who are unfortunately still getting way too much attention, especially on political 'predictions') 'predicting' a 'drastic change' in April or May with a new prime minister, whose initial is allegedly 'P' or 'D', followed by an annoyed commander-in-chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha rejecting all rumors. And then there's Bannawit's recent prediction:
A countdown had begun to a coup, which could come in a few weeks, not a year or months.
"Bannawit: Coup countdown has begun", Bangkok Post, February 1, 2011
While it should be widely known by now that a coup is hardly the all-solving carte blanche, the mere fact that these rumors are flying around persistently indicates a sad reality that given the increased influence and the revitalized politicization of the military since 2006, another coup is never fully out of question.
Become A Cyber-Scout, Clean Up Thailand's Internet!
Originally published at Siam Voices on December 17, 2010 In an everlasting attempt to uphold its image as a fierce defender of the royal institution and thus effectively controlling a national narrative the Thai government now sets its aims into the online world. The ministry of justice, where the Democrat party is in charge, has set up a so-called ‘Cyber Scout’ training programme for next week December 20-21 at Kasetsart University. On their website, the organizers laid out following goals (translated by me):
Objectives of the project
1. To create a Cyber Scout volunteer network [...] that observes [...] [online] behavior that is deemed a threat to national security and to defend and protect the royal institution.
2. To collect the work of the Cyber Scout volunteers.
3. To set up a network of Cyber Scout volunteers to contact.
4. To promote the moral and ethics with the help of the volunteers, to ensure the correct behavior, build reconciliation and awareness towards the use of information with regard to morality and safety of individuals in society.
5. To promote and support to various sectors of society to careful and responsible usage of information technology.
6. To create a society of sharing and knowledge about security and decency of society.
The seminar is open to every volunteer, but specifically targets students and generally young people. But, in story by The Nation in July, ICT Minister Chuti Krairiksh said that initially 200 people will be recruited (!) "from around the country, including students, teachers, government officials and the private sector, who have computers and Internet literacy" - that pretty much covers nearly all walks of lives!
Let's look at some highlights on the schedule and what you can learn at this seminar:
Monday, 20 December 2010
10.00h to 11.45h : "Joint group to defend and protect the royal institution" by Boworn Yasintorn [president of the Network of Volunteer Citizens to Protect the Monarchy on Facebook] (program points: "The monarchy in Thai politics" and "Defending the institution")
11.00h to 12.00h : "Computer usage ethics" by Asst Prof Dr Nuanwan Sunthornphisat (program points: "Computer-related laws" and "Case studies of actions that are considered unethical acts")
13.00h to 14.30h : "Thailand's monarchy" by Asst Prof Patcharaporn Suwannakut (programs points: "His Majesty the King's talent in various fields" and "Royal duties and important royal projects")
14.45h to 16.30h : "How to correctly use the computer and the internet" by Dr Pakaket Wattuya
On Tuesday you get the light version of the seminar with three of the speeches listed above.
My take: It's easy for us to get all Orwellian over this project and it's probably easy for them to dispel such concerns as a simple overreaction, since PM Abhisit highlighted the project has only the best intentions to "also help bridge the digital divide between people who have and those who do not have a chance to access the internet" and that this project would also be in line with "the government's promotion of a knowledge-based society." (Source)
But it is quite clear that a general trend of over-emphasizing the loyalty by all means and the sudden urge to protect the royal institution against a perceived, invisible threat. And since the internet is a quite anonymous place, it's an even more frightening threat. Thus these mental and cultural barricades are built with the recruited man-power and the social dogma of loyalty - both off- and online. The term 'Cyber Scout' reflects some historical parallels to the 'Village Scouts' of the 1970s, which were set up for almost the same reasons in order to battle a perceived communist threat.
The results of this over-protective mood can already be seen by simple numbers: at least 113,000 websites have been blocked so far, most of them for lèse majesté and by the looks of it, this number will continue to grow. It has yet to be seen though, how successful and effective the seminar will be and whether a network of volunteers will help the government to reach its goals. Nevertheless the government will try to push it's national narrative.
Generally speaking, using the internet is like teaching someone to ride a bicycle - you can try to tell what the person has and can do, what obstacles and dangers he or she has to avoid, but ultimate the rider is on his or her own out there. You can either stick to the known paths or branch out and discover more new things, which isn't necessarily a good thing. But to in order to build a knowledge-based society, which the government eventually wants to have, you have to allow the freedom to collect the knowledge by yourself and not being shoved into the throat.
P.S.: You might think that such a government-sponsored event would a more professional looking email-address than justice_cyber@hotmail.com? Just sayin'...!
The Guardian's Latest Thailand-Related WikiLeaks Cables
Originally published at Siam Voices on December 15, 2010 After we have learned what China thought about post-coup Thailand and The Guardian hinting at some cables from the US embassy in Bangkok, the London-based newspaper have uploaded three full Thailand-related documents. Due to it's content, we cannot link to it or quote parts of the cables in it's entirety. We advise to look them up by yourself, unless the Thai authorities have already blocked access to the site. But here's what we can quote:
The first cable (marked 'confidential') is from September 20, 2006 - one day after the military coup - and written by then-US ambassador Ralph L. Boyce about a meeting with coup leader Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin. Key excerpts:
2. (C) I began by asking Sonthi about the audience with [name redacted] last night. Who had attended? He said Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda had brought him, Supreme Commander Ruangroj and Navy Commander Sathiraphan in to meet [name redacted]. Sonthi stressed that they had been summoned to [place redacted]; he had not sought the audience. He said [name redacted] was relaxed and happy, smiling throughout. He provided no further details.
3. (C) Turning to the US reaction, I reminded him of our conversation, August 31, when I told him any military action would result in immediate suspension of assistance programs such as IMET, FMF and numerous others. I told him he could expect us to announce such a measure shortly. He understood. [...]
The International Military Education and Training (IMET), the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and various other programs were reinstated in 2008 (source).
5. (C) Was he going to seize Thaksin's assets? No, he stated flatly. Would Thaksin and his family and colleagues be allowed to return to Thailand? Yes, unconditionally. What is the officially approved English rendition of the coup group's title? "Council for Democratic Reform Under Constitutional Monarchy" or CDRM.
Thaksin's assets were seized at some point anyways and in 2010 the courts decided to keep most of it. The name of the coup group was eventually quickly changed to just "Council for Democratic Reform" in order to avoid misunderstandings.
The second cable (also marked 'confidential') is from October 1, 2008 and protocols a meeting between US ambassador Eric G. John with former prime minister Samak Sundaravej. The PAD have sieged the Government House for several weeks and Samak was disqualified just a shortly before the meeting and also stepped down as the leader of the ruling People's Power Party. The key parts are pretty much what Bangkok Pundit wrote about yesterday. The cable comments that "senior Thai politicians can often revive careers, we believe Samak has lost virtually all of his influence and has little prospect of staging a political comeback."
The last cable (marked 'secret') is from November 6, 2008 and describes several exchanges with insiders with important ties. Remember: at that time, the PAD were still occupying the Government House, since they were willing to take down prime minister Somchai Wongsuwat, Samak's successor and brother-in-law of Thaksin. Note: parts marked with 'XXXXXXXXX' were already reacted during publishing. Key parts:
4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX remarked that [name redacted] was highly irritated by PAD's occupation of Government House and other disruptions caused by the anti-government group, but [name redacted] was unsure how best to ensure PAD would vacate the compound. [...] XXXXXXXXXXXX considered XXXXXXXXXXXX to be obstinate, however, saying Sondhi had become obsessed with his own sense of mission. By contrast, XXXXXXXXXXXX thought that XXXXXXXXXXXX was reasonable and willing to compromise.
6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX predicted that the current turmoil would not result in a military coup. He said that [name redacted], speaking with Army Commander Anupong Paojinda, had referred to the 2006 coup and made a statement to the effect that there should be no further coups. [...]
9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX believed PAD continued to aim for a violent clash that would spark a coup. He asserted that he had dined on October 6 with a leading PAD figure, who explained that PAD would provoke violence during its October 7 protest at the parliament. The unnamed PAD figure predicted (wrongly) that the Army would intervene against the government by the evening of October 7. XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted to us that PAD remained intent on a conflict that would generate at least two dozen deaths and make military intervention appear necessary and justified.
October 7, 2008 was the day when Somchai was supposed to hold his first speech as the new prime minister at the parliament. The PAD protestors have surrounded the compound and in the following violent clashes with the police, several people were seriously injured and one woman was killed, who is also subject in this cable.
My take: The contents of the leaked cables are highly explosive and will sure confirm what many observers were at least suspecting, but also possibly fuel a more heated controversial debate about the political implications. It is yet to seen if the position of the United States in Thailand will be compromised, considering that they are also in the progress of changing ambassadors. The authorities are sure to block The Guardian's website very quickly, but the spill's been already done and will expand - even if certain circles won't like it, as my fellow blogger Pokpong tweeted earlier today:
http://twitter.com/mrpokpong/status/14795482060554240
Thailand Court Scandal Video Blocked on YouTube
Originally published at Siam Voices on November 12, 2010 The scandal at Thailand's Constitution Court revolving the leaked clips has taken a more absurd turn. After the latest clip has been uploaded to YouTube, this very clip has been blocked by the Thai authorities. But why? Matichon reported on Thursday that they have been hit with a criminal complaint by the judges for publishing the names of the of the judges shown in the video.
The article also mentions that the judges have agreed to prosecute the uploader of the videos, especially concerning the latest video, that allegedly hints at nepotism in hiring the judges' personal staff, on the base of articles 198, 326, 328 of the criminal law - all concerning defamation - but also article 112, the article for lese majeste! According to the court's secretary, the content of the latest clip is deemed lese majeste.
It seems that this was the reason that the clip was blocked in Thailand. So, where in the clip was something that could be labeled as lese majeste?
New Leaked Video Dishes Yet Another Scandal at Thailand's Constitution Court
Originally published at Siam Voices on November 10, 2010 Another new video has been leaked onto YouTube that further brings Thailand's Constitution Court into disrepute. After the original five videos that allegedly show senior judicial figures meeting with a Democrat MP, the ninth video was now uploaded by the user "ohmygod3009" and this is what can be seen:
The latest clip is titled “Confession of an admission exam cheater” and was posted on Monday by the same source as earlier ones “ohmygod3009”. It is 5.36 minutes long and has captions.
The clip shows a meeting between Pasit Sakdanarong, the now dismissed secretary of the Constitution Court, with two young men. They are named as children of judges who work at the court and alleged to have received help from three judges to pass a test to get work at the court office. (...)
Pasit was recorded as telling the two to admit they cheated in the recruitment exam and they nod their heads. After some talk, one of the two men admits that a court judge brought the exam answers to his home while the other man admits receiving the exam answers at a judge’s office.
"Another court clip posted online", The Nation, November 10, 2010
This video pretty much confirms what Puea Thai Party's spokesman Prompong Nopparit was claiming a few weeks ago:
In his latest barrage, Mr Prompong accused, without naming names, some Constitution Court judges of practising cronyism by appointing their own relatives as their secretaries or advisers on the court's payroll. He cited the particular case of a judge who'd appointed his own son as his secretary. Mr Prompong alleged that the son was kept on the payroll even though he had left the country to further his studies abroad.
To counter the allegation, which has yet to be verified, the Constitution Court judges argued that MPs themselves were not any better because they, too, widely practised cronyism by appointing ill-qualified outsiders, many of them their own relatives, as secretaries, advisers or academics attached to various parliamentary committees. Although it is widely suspected that the Puea Thai spokesman may harbour ulterior motives against the judiciary in general and the Constitution Court in particular, the judges' counter argument against the MPs does no good to the reputation and credibility of the court in the eyes of the public.
"Cronyism in high places", Bangkok Post, October 28, 2010
What is also interesting about this leaked video is the that many Thais were probably not able to initially watch it since Thai authorities have blocked access to it, claiming that it would "break the emergency decree" (which is still active in parts of Thailand including Bangkok). Nevertheless, as with all previous attempts to suppress something online, it proved to be unsuccessful since this clip starts popping up elsewhere.