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Starting a new chapter

2016-07-15 09.17.54 HDR.jpg After a short hiatus, I’m happy to finally announce that today I’m beginning my new job as Channel NewsAsia’s new IndoChina Correspondent based at their Bangkok Bureau. I’m excited to be back in the city and being back on the air reporting on country has changed a lot since my last stint, to say the least. There’ll be surely no shortage of stories to cover and developments to analyze. And last but not least, I’m looking forward to working my new and old colleagues!

There’ll be one or two small changes on my social media front: I will still have my own personal accounts (facebook.com/saksith.saiyasombut and @Saksith), but in addition I will also post all the stuff our Indochina Bureau produces on my ”work” accounts (facebook.com/Saiyasombut and @SaksithCNA), including our reports, when we go on air next, exclusive looks behind the scenes, Facebook live streams and other stuff down the line.

I’m super-stoked for this opportunity and I wanna thank those that have made it possible, you know who you are! Here’s to the new chapter - starting now!

Cheers,

Saksith Saiyasombut Channel NewsAsia IndoChina Correspondent

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Thailand in 2015: Some personal thoughts

Originally published at Siam Voices on December 24, 2015 A definitively incomplete look back at a year in 2015 where few things made headlines for the right reasons.

FOR the second time since its most recent assumption of powers, the Thai military junta has presented its annual government performance to the general public. This was the opportunity for the cabinet of junta leader and prime minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha to show what it actually has achieved in its first full year ruling over Thailand. But for some reason, it has cut the schedule down from three days last year to just one day today.

This is also the fifth time that I’m writing a year-in-review ever since I started covering Thai politics. This is the opportunity for me to reflect and comment on the developments in the political sphere in order to help the general public understand what the hell is actually going on in the circles of power. But for some very specific reason, this year’s exercise is an exceptionally frustrating one.

Last year, I wrote about the metaphorical arsonists that have caused the death of Thai democracy as we knew it and those complicit in it. The latter have now been largely sidelined since then, as well as their political enemies.

If 2014 marked the watershed moment in Thai history, 2015 was largely a continuation of the season of infamy.

The Thai military government - with all its doublespeak about their so-called "roadmap” back to democracy, its nonchalance about the blurred lines between military and government, its incredibly tone-deaf verbosities and compulsive loquaciousness, its "attitude adjusting" detainments and ultimately its blunt threats against those daring to oppose or those just simply doing their jobs - has put this country in a petulant state of revertigo, a dizzying regression to old behaviors triggered by something in the past, or at least what should be in the past. Or to put it in the words of a Thai education official, a "360 degree turn".

The junta's reimagineering of the political landscape, in which the powers of elected officials will be severely restricted or otherwise affected by outside intervention, was both dead on arrival and on schedule at the same time: on one hand, the junta was mulling over a referendum on the next constitutional draft, but also delaying the possible election date, which was initially set for late 2015, but kept getting pushed back further and further. The next possible date for new polls has now been pushed even further at mid-2017, since the draft was rejected by the junta-appointed legislative and the whole process started anew. And that on the other hand just simply extended the junta’s rule, as it claims that it will definitely hand back power in 2017 - unless they decide otherwise.

It seems that almost nothing can dampen the junta’s rule: not the still-sagging economy, not the ongoing cases of slavery in the fishing industry, its poor handling of refugees (if they were not deporting them back), or the air traffic security downgrade. Not even the bomb attack on August 22 at Bangkok's busy Erawan shrine that killed 20 and injured over 100 people has shaken the generals too much, as it has self-congratulatorily declared the case closed after a shambolically contradicting investigation. Just don’t call it an act of terrorism.

Other "achievements” by this government would be too long to list all of them here (as well as PM Gen. Prayuth’s almost daily sardonic hissy fits), in a year where very few things indicated progress and even fewer cases where common sense has prevailed, such as the tiny advancements in LGBTI rights and the dismissal in the libel case against the Phuketwan journalists.

The ongoing rule of the military junta also unsurprisingly signals the ongoing regression of human rights and freedom of speech, as dissidents are detained in what officials euphemistically call "attitude adjustment” and assemblies are outlawed (unless you are an ultra-nationalist protesting against the US embassy). Political parties across the spectrum have been rendered irrelevant, either unable and unwilling to engage in the current political climate, leaving the field to a very few but brave student activists.

Lèse majesté has reached its lowest point yet in 2015, as both criminal and military courts have handed out record sentences and arbitrarily extended the definition of the draconian law, from vague allusions in university theater productions to sharing Facebook posts mocking the King’s dog.

The military government has also extended its front lines online as well. The new proposed Cyber Laws aim to create the foundations for "digital economy”, but also enable widespread online surveillance, prosecution against intermediaries (just on Wednesday the alternative news website Prachatai lost its appeal) and more legal uncertainty, benefiting the state more than Thai online users.

Compared to that the junta’s plans to bottleneck internet traffic through a "single gateway” to filter unwanted content was just the icing on the cake - and something that sparked a rare display of civil disobedience, as online activists crashed government websites, sending officials scrambling for an appropriate response. While the government states it isn’t pursuing those plans any more, one shouldn’t be surprised if the single gateway and other means to control the narrative online will pop up next year.

But that is a losing battle and no other case has proven it more than the Rajabhakti Park corruption scandal. What was initially planned as yet another big display of the military’s loyalty to the monarchy worth around 1 billion Baht ($28 million) has descended into a massive headache for the junta, as military officers are accused of receiving kickbacks and suspects in similar cases have died in custody. The junta has so far responded in the only way it can: by detaining critics and crying conspiracy.

What this and the year as a whole shows is that the assumption of control by the Thai military junta remains a textbook definition of an assumption - one without proof or legitimacy that will be constantly challenged. The junta is obviously playing the long game sitting comfortably at the helm for the foreseeable future in one form or another, it is mounting a battle of attrition for its opponents.

For me personally, it is a battle against cynicism. The actions by those in power are self-evident and predictable, yet stupendously brazen and unashamedly blatant in their execution - in that regard that is pretty much the status quo for Thai politics in general regardless of what era we are talking about. But wouldn’t that be the lazy way to explain all this and then leave the foreseeable future to be damned like this? Wouldn’t it be cynical?

I honestly don’t know any more, because my articles over the past five years have chronicled the systematic failure of the Thai political discourse by nearly all involved, hence it is no surprise how we got here where we are now. And it still seems that we haven't reached the worst yet. But how many more years are we gonna be trapped in this repeating state of revertigo and how will this cycle be broken? The answers to the question may already have been given multiple times along the way, but amidst this constant regression in Thailand, how many more times do they have to be repeated?

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Thailand's indefinite roadmap: Prayuth threatens to 'stay on' in power

Originally published at Siam Voices on October 30, 2015 Thailand’s military government is becoming increasingly blatant about its intentions to stay in power

THAILAND'S Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has never been shy about letting everybody know his opinions. The junta leader also expects everybody to listen. Nobody knows that better than the local journalists who have endured the daily press briefings by the PM that have more often than not turned into prolonged tirades (as we have reported previously). The rest of the country might have caught some nuggets of his wisdom during his weekly TV addresses while waiting for their nightly fix of local television's ubiquitous and hugely popular soap operas.

It’s one and a half years into the rule of Thailand’s military after it took power in the coup of May 22, 2014. Its reign has been authoritarian, dominating nearly the entire political discourse, censoring the flow of information and intolerant of criticism and dissent - even if it's something as innocuous as an old man giving flowers to anti-junta protesters.

The junta has its hands in almost every institution that is currently re-writing the constitution, thus re-defining the rules for any future elected government - that is IF there is going to be an election any time soon. With a new timeframe for democratic elections in mid 2017 - instead of initially late 2015 - the military junta has postponed the date at least three times already. First the constitutional drafting process was blamed to be taking too long, then the generals granted a public referendum on the next constitution in exchange for another delay, and eventually the rejection of said draft constitution by a fully-appointed government body pushed it further back even further, since the whole process of writing a new constitution has to start over again.

But even when the rules for the currently sidelined politicans are set and the veneer of democratic normalcy is being prepared to be raised, there is no guarantee that that’s actually going to happen.

While Gen. Prayuth himself has decided to reduce his daily press briefings, he didn’t keep it short during a meeting of the self-titled "five rivers”, which includes the military junta, the cabinet, the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), the Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC) and the newly established National Reform Steering Assembly (NRSA), this week.

In his speech Wednesday morning, a hot-headed Prayuth went on an extensive tirade clocking in at two hours and 15 minutes, attacking his opponents and ultimately culminating in this threat:

"Politicians do not have to be suspicious of me. [The media] writes every day that I intend to cling on to power. I must make it clear. If there is no peace and order, I must stay on.”

In other words, if there are any political groups or individuals are attempting to stage anything large-scale that the military government sees as a threat, it has a very convenient excuse to shut the country down.

Even though his Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan tried to downplay Gen. Prayuth’s threat, saying that the prime minister ”didn’t mean it literally” and people ”shouldn’t read too much into it”, it becomes increasingly obvious that this wasn't just yet another slip of the tongue by Gen. Prayuth and what the military junta is doing to ensure its grip on power, no matter how the political landscape looks in the foreseeable future.

As a return to democracy becomes more and more elusive, Thailand’s military rulers are turning the twindow for the next election into a time horizon: always visible, but never reachable.

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Thailand's 'single gateway' internet plan backfires spectacularly

Originally published at Siam Voices on October 2, 2015 A message displayed on a website blocked by Thailand's Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (MICT). (Pic: Wikimedia Commons)

Junta backtracks on plans to bottleneck Thailand’s internet traffic through a single gateway after online backlash

Imagine this: you are being awarded for something you haven’t done but you go to the reception gala anyway because it’s too tempting to miss the limelight. That’s what happened last Tuesday in New York, when Thai military Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha - during his week at the United Nations' General Assembly - received the "ICTs in Sustainable Development Award" by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN’s IT and telecommunication agency.

Alongside nine other countries, the ITU awarded ”Thailand's ICT Policy Framework” as ”an exemplary model for the development of an effective telecommunications/ICT Regulatory environment,” according to a statement on the ITU website, listing off several ICT policies that have happened over the past 15 years under various governments - in other words, well before then-army chief Gen. Prayuth launched the military coup of May 22, 2014, toppling the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

The statement also highlighted the ”National ICT Master Plan”, a policy blueprint introduced in 2002 by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (Yingluck’s brother) that also saw the creation of the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (MICT). It's that same MICT plus the current cabinet that made headlines for all the wrong reasons again in the past few weeks, as a proposal to control Thailand’s internet traffic by introducing a single gateway was made public.

SEE ALSO: Thailand to tighten grip on Internet with its own ‘Great Firewall’

The public response was unsurprisingly negative. Thailand's internet-savvy population feared not only even more online censorship and content filtering under military rule, but also a decrease in the speed and stability of Thailand’s internet infrastructure, since all traffic would be squeezed through said single gateway.

And in a rare display of civil disobedience and dissent against the military junta, internet users hit back on Wednesday evening:

To express dissent – and highlight the vulnerability of government systems – a community of online gamers opposed the government’s plan to police all internet traffic knocked offline websites of several state agencies, including the telecommunication ministry.

No sophisticated hacking seemed involved. Instead it was conducted using a simple yet reliable method to cripple targeted web servers. Activists circulated messages on Facebook last night urging supporters to mass-click and refresh the websites of specific government agencies at 10pm in what proved a successful bid to bring down services – a common method known as a distributed denial of service attack, or DDoS.

“Today after 10pm, people who are united to oppose the single gateway system will launch a symbolic attack by method of DDoS, which is a symbolic method [of expression], since it is a method that everyone with a mobile phone and internet can do,” the post reads. “It is a demonstration of the power of the people.”

"Cyber Activists Bring Down Govt Sites to Protest ‘Single Gateway’", Khaosod English, October 1, 2015

During the night from Wednesday to Thursday, practically every website ending with a ”.go.th”-domain was targeted and at least seven government websites went offline amidst the constant barrage of mass refreshes, among them the MICT itself, the Ministry of Defense, the Government House, the military’s Internal Security Operations Command and the state-owned telecommunication companies TOT and CAT Telecom.

Thai government websites are comparatively easy targets, loaded with malware, generally unstable and using a form-over-function-approach to design (read: copious amounts to crude flash animations). The MICT website was reportedly accessed 100,000 times on Wednesday night alone compared to the daily average of 6,000 - the takedowns were a clear warning shot not to mess with a population that's not only very active online, but also seems to have better IT capabilities.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Nevertheless, as the websites slowly came back online Thursday, officials were scrambling to control the damage, both virtually and publicity-wise. And this is where things got even muddier. Newly-appointed ICT minister Uttama Savanayana reiterated that the single gateway is still just an idea at this point and the government will ”never restrict or interfere” with the internet access and freedom of its citizens. Furthermore he called the public to stop calling the proposal ”single gateway”, despite the fact that that word showed up several times in the original cabinet orders.

Apart from Uttama, other officials cited more, often contradictory reasons for the Thai military government to look into a ”single gateway”. The whole range goes from...

...”filtering and blocking unwanted content”...

The plan to reduce internet gateways was initially proposed by Pol Gen Somyos Pumpanmuang, the chief of the Royal Thai Police, in June 2015. He reasoned that through a single gateway system, it will be much easier for the state authorities to monitor, filter, delete, and intercept information on the internet that could be deemed inappropriate.

Thai authorities to step up surveillance via ‘single internet gateway’”, Prachatai English, September 23, 2015

...to ”improving IT business”...

(…) Gen Settapong Malisuwan, the president of CAT telecom (…) and the vice president of the NBTC (…) admitted one of the purposes of implementing the single internet gateway system is to filter information and ‘inappropriate’ online materials from overseas.

The general, however, said that the primary purpose is actually increase the competitiveness of the IT sector in Thailand (…)

Single internet gateway increases IT capacity and national security: Thai authorities”, Prachatai English, September 24, 2015

...to "saving costs"...

ICT Minister Uttama Savanayaya told reporters that it was a misunderstanding that the project was about national security; rather he said it was purely an economic measure simply to reduce Internet access costs and ISPs could use the single gateway or not as they choose. It would also free up ISPs from security costs as the government would take care of IT security on their behalf.

Thai ICT minister defends single gateway initiative”, TelecomAsia, September 25, 2015

...”anticipating cyber threats”...

[PM's Office Minister Suwaphan Tanyuvardhana] said the measure was being studied because the government anticipated several types of cyber threats, including hacking of government's websites and spreading of rumors and false information to discredit various institutions.

Suwaphan says govt studies single Internet gateway to prevent cyber threats”, The Nation, October 1, 2015

...and finally to ”won’t somebody please think about the children?!”

"The prime minister is worried about children and young people who use technologies and the internet without an appropriate framework or scope, and he has asked related agencies to come up with measures," he said.

ICT minister vows to 'never curb rights’”, Bangkok Post, October 1, 2015

No matter what the reasons are and even if the officials eventually get their stories straight, the Thai military government seemingly has underestimated the public's response to the single gateway plans. However, this won't stop the junta's efforts to monitor, filter and censor any online content it sees as a threat to its narrative. As highlighted last week, this is not the only measure or proposal concerning IT policies and the biggest of them all, the Cyber Law bills, are not yet even passed.

As the United Nations have declared unrestricted access to the internet and freedom of expression online a human right in a 2011 resolution, the Thai military government is already running afoul of this principle and would do so even more if it actually realizes all of its proposals.

h/t to several readers

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Squaring the circles: Thai police close case on Bangkok bomber hunt

Originally published at Siam Voices on September 30, 2015

Thai police are confident that they have arrested the main suspect in the deadly Erawan Shrine bombing - just in time for a certain official...

IT'S an equation with many unknown variables that the Thai police have been dealing with since August 17, when the deadly bomb attack at Bangkok’s popular Erawan Shrine killed 20 and injured over 100 people, followed the next day by a similar attempted bomb attack at Sathorn pier in which nobody was harmed.

The investigation started off slowly and the authorities were caught as much off-guard as most observers, since the scale and severity of the attack didn’t fit with any domestic groups that oppose the Thai military government. With only some grainy CCTV footage, dozens of witness accounts and many arrest warrants against unknown men, Thai authorities often contradicted themselves in their hunt for the perpetrators.

Two weeks after the bombing, the police arrested Mohammed Bilal (aka ”Adem Karadag”, the name in a fake Turkish passport he was carrying), and Yusufu Mieraili, identified as a Chinese Uighur from Xinjiang province. Despite initial reluctance, the focus was swiftly put on the Uighur angle. Members of the ethnic minority from western China often have to flee abroad from state persecution. In July the Thai military government deported about 100 Uighur refugees to China amidst international protest and in what is being widely regarded as the military junta cozying up to Beijing.

After several weeks of more contradictory police statements, from more fruitless accusations (the police implicated 17 suspects in total), suspects having already fled the country, to the Turkish embassy strongly denying having been ever been contacted by Thai police, the police suddenly turned to their first arrest Mohammed Bilal (aka Adem Karadag) as their main suspect after reviewing CCTV footage, again. Despite initially denying the allegations (his lawyer says that he came to Thailand days after the bomb attack), it was reported that both he and Mieraili confessed to involvement, with the former being the one who planted the bomb at the shrine.

Following the weekend, as both prime suspects have been paraded around in public crime re-enactments (again!), Thai national police chief Somyot Poompanmoung concluded with certainty on Monday that Mohammed Bilal is the main suspect behind the deadly Bangkok bombing of August 17, 2015. As for the motives, Thai police said this:

“This case is conclusive,” said Royal Thai Police commissioner-general Somyot Poompanmoung. “The perpetrators are part of a human smuggling network” in retribution for the Thai government’s crackdown on a human trafficking network.

However, Somyot and other top officials clarified the group was likely hired by others and links to vested political interests could not be ruled out. Authorities have given few clues about other political motivations for the attack, however outside analysts have suggested it could be linked to the country’s internal political divisions.

Detonators, ball bearings and other evidence recovered from the debris around the shrine and an alleged second bombing attack at a pier match materials found in two raided apartments, police told reporters at a Monday briefing.

"Thai Police: Foreign Suspects Confess to Bombings", Voice of America, September 28, 2015

Not only are Thai authorities blaming human traffickers for the attack, but are also introducing a domestic angle by implicating a militant member of the red shirts, the group aligned with the former Prime Ministers Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck, both toppled in military coups in 2006 and 2014, respectively.

Min Buri is also where a bomb exploded in 2014 during the height of anti-government street protests, killing two men transporting it by motorcycle. Police said that bomb was partly made by Yongyuth Pobkaew, who was previously given a suspended, one-year sentence for a 2010 bombing which killed four people northwest of Bangkok in Nonthaburi province.

Thai authorities have alleged a radical cell of the Redshirt movement was behind both incidents. Police said Yongyuth purchased materials used for the Erawan Shrine bombing. A warrant for his arrest was issued on Friday but police said his whereabouts were unknown. (...)

Speaking at today’s televised press conference, police chief Somyot also told reporters that domestic Thai politics could not be ruled out as a motive. “We cannot rule out politics,” he said. “We are not falsely accusing anyone here. My words are based on evidence.”

"Police Link Bomb Attack to Uighurs, Deep South and Thai Politics", Khaosod English, September 28, 2015

Evidence that we still have yet to see, as Somyot is about to retire later this week as National Police Chief, handing over the job to his successor Pol.-Gen. Chakthip Chaijinda (rumored to have been chosen by the even-more-hawkish Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan).

Thai police are patting themselves on the back - since they are also cashing 3m Thai Baht ($84,000) in reward money meant for the public following the arrest of Karadag -  just days before their chief's retirement, considering the case to be solved while still leaving lingering doubts unanswered. The authorities have consistently avoided calling the deadly attack an act of terrorism, partly so as not to scare away even more tourists, as many foreign nationals are among the victims. And whether or not criminals - who mostly operate well hidden from the public - were behind the bombings as a direct "revenge" on the military government's crackdown on human traffickers (triggered by a discovery of a mass grave earlier this year) also remains to be seen.

In a country under military rule and a notoriously corrupt police force, the investigation of the worst attack in the history of Bangkok was largely undermined by constant contradictions being spouted and the lack of transparency displayed by the authorities (and then harrying the media for highlighting their discrepancies). Public confidence is unlikely to increase after the latest developments, as the Thai police are seemingly trying to square the circle with their suspicion on the perpetrators behind the bomb attack. The equation remains with many variables, waiting to be resolved.

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Thailand to tighten grip on Internet with its own 'Great Firewall'

Originally published at Siam Voices on September 25, 2015

Plans by the Thai military government to restrict the country’s internet traffic through a single gateway has raised concerns not only in the IT community, but among a public who fear authorities will easily be able to control what they can see and what they can not.

It seems that outages of major online platforms have had some unfortunate timing lately. Shortly after the Thai military launched last year's coup - the country’s 12th - Facebook was suddenly not accessible for anyone in Thailand. While the period offline was no longer than a hour, the outcry by its over 30 million users nationwide was loud, suspecting an online shutdown by the new rulers in order to clamp down on dissenting voices.

Fast forward this past Thursday night: another Facebook outage, and similar outcry - only this time those were heard around the world as the site itself was down for a couple of minutes for everybody. But again some Thai users might have been startled by this incident, as it happened shortly after news emerged that the Thai military government wants to siphon all incoming internet traffic through a single gateway - effectively emulating China's ”Great Firewall” in order to filter unwanted content.

The idea was conceived by the military government right after it took over power last year (among other ideas like a national social network), but it wasn’t until August this year that things were set in motion:

On 4 Aug. the military government approved the plan, and on 27 Aug. issued an order to the ministry tasked with regulating the internet to make it happen, according to cabinet meeting records.

“The Ministry of Information Communication Technology is hereby instructed to speed up the aforementioned issue and report any progress to the prime minister by September 2015,” read the 27 Aug. cabinet minutes of the gateway project.

Junta Readies ‘Great Firewall of Thailand’”, Khaosod English, September 24, 2015

Furthermore, Thai netizens recently discovered a related cabinet resolution from June 30, ordering the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (MICT) to report what laws need to amended in order to realize a single gateway and report back by September 4.

Amidst these revelations, Thai authorities were forced to justify these plans and ultimately revealed the primary purpose of the gateway:

According to BBC Thai Service, Gen Settapong Malisuwan, the president of CAT telecom under the National Broadcasting Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) and the vice president of the NBTC, on Thursday, 24 September 2015, admitted one of the purposes of implementing the single internet gateway system is to filter information and ‘inappropriate’ online materials from overseas.

(...) the CAT president added that national security is also one of the underlying reasons to the plan in order to make it easier for the state to crackdown on cyber crimes, saying that even the US has implemented such system.

Single internet gateway increases IT capacity and national security: Thai authorities”, Prachatai English, September 24, 2015

The NTBC vice president further defended in the same interview with BBC Thai the proposal, saying that it would actually ”increase” the competitiveness of Thailand’s IT sector against its neighbors, providing ”incentives” for private internet operators to log onto what it euphemistically calls a ”digital hub”, seeing itself as the center of Southeast Asia’s online connectivity.

From a business standpoint, it's doubtful how you could increase competitiveness by bottlenecking all of Thailand’s online traffic, effectively risking to cripple broadband speed, and also making state-owned CAT Telecom the sole monopolizing gatekeeper again, harkening back to the early days of Thailand’s internet connections.

Though, what dominates in the arguments by the authorities is the emphasis on ”national security”, the need to monitor internet content and to censor it when they feel it's necessary. While that mentality has often been expressed by several MICT officials under different governments (see hereherehere and here) in the past, this has become the leading doctrine in the Thai military government’s IT policy.

Under the military junta, the media are under its watch (especially online), it has blocked more than 200 websites deemed a threat to national security (source) - and has ordered internet providers to censor on sight - and reportedly also procured software to intercept encrypted SSL-connections and additional hacking and surveillance software - all that solely to go after Thais that are dissenting against the junta. Last week, the outspoken journalist Pravit Rojanaphruk was detained by the military for a second 'attitude adjustment' reportedly for a critical Facebook post (shortly after his release, he has been forced out at The Nation newspaper). In August, a military court sentenced two Thai Facebook users to a record 30 and 28 years in prison respectively for allegedly insulting the monarchy online.

Furthermore, the Thai military government is in process of passing its so-called cyber laws, a set of bills aimed officially at "preparing Thailand for the digital economy". But it also includes passages that enables widespread online surveillance, prosecution against intermediaries (e.g. website owners) and more legal uncertainty, benefitting the state more than Thai online users. The single internet gateway is very much in line with the Thai military government's hawkish policies, as it also wants to conquer the cyberspace as well.

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Attitude re-adjustments: A new crackdown by Thailand's military junta?

Originally published at Siam Voices on September 15, 2015 UPDATE [Sep 15, 2015 - 17:35h local Bangkok time]: Thai journalist Pravit Rojanaphruk as well as former Pheu Thai Party  MPs Pichai Naripthaphan and Karun Hosakul have been released from military detention.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Two opposition politicians and a journalist are among a new wave of detainments by Thailand's military government. A sign of things to come?

"Freedom can't be maintained if we're not willing to defend it." That's what Pravit Rojanaphruk tweeted on Sunday afternoon before his feed went unusually silent. On Monday he was reported to have been detained by the military government to undergo what it calls "attitude adjustment". The journalist for 'The Nation' newspaper, known for his outspokenness in his articles and on social media alike, seemed to know what was coming, tweeting on Saturday:

http://twitter.com/PravitR/status/642576747372744705

He is now at an undisclosed army base, without access to a lawyer. It is unknown how long he will be held and also initially why. This has sparked a flurry of criticism against Pravit's detention. Whether it's from his newspaper 'The Nation', its parent company, the Thai Journalists' Association, or international organizations like the Foreign Correspondent's Club of Thailand and Reporters Without Borders - all have condemned the arbitrary action by the military junta and called for his immediate release. The Nation Group's editor-in-chief Thepchai Yong said: "There is no justification whatsoever for his detention. If the military believes he has done something wrong, there are normal legal channels to deal with it."

This was not the first involuntary visit to the generals for Pravit, as he was summoned three days after the military coup of May 22, 2014 among hundreds of politicians and other dissidents (see photo below). Following his six days in custody, he described the ordeal as "surreal" in an interview with Asian Correspondent. While the facilities at the army camp were reportedly comfortable and all detainees were treated respectfully - at times even "cordially" - Pravit suspected that it was all part of "psychological warfare" by the military and that his group were treated better than others. Furthermore, he said military officers attempted to gain information on other persons, including academics and foreign journalists, that are perceived to be critical of the Thai military. Pravit, like many other former detainees, are reportedly under regular observation by the authorities since their release.

Spokesmen for the “National Council for Peace and Order” (NCPO), as the military junta formally calls itself, released statements in a piecemeal fashion over the course of Monday explaining Pravit's detainment, first saying that the journalist "disseminated information" in a fashion that could cause "misunderstanding" - a standard claim to shut down any criticism against the military rulers - while at the same time admitting that there has been no such proof yet. Then, another spokesman stated that the main reason for Pravit to be taken into custody was a "provocative and decisive" Facebook post, but stopped short of specifying which one and why. Because it was a Facebook post, the junta makes the pedantic distinction that Pravit was summoned "as an individual, not as a journalist". The same spokesman also estimates that he "may be detained from three to seven days" and is expected to sign an agreement with the junta again not to violate their orders or otherwise be charged with sedition.

Pravit's ordeal is the latest in a new string of detainments as two politicians of the toppled government of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party - namely former energy minister Pichai Naripthaphan and former MP Karun Hosakul - are being held at undisclosed locations by the for almost a week now after both men were vocally critic of the military government's policies. The NCPO says they will be released later this week after the necessary "attitude adjustment" (in case of Pichai his seventh) required to make them "stop making remarks" deemed harmful to the military's "national reconciliation" efforts. Earlier this month, authorities revoked the passport of former education minister Chaturon Chaisang, who also criticized the military government.

These incidents come at a peculiar time for the military junta, which has refrained from mass-scale summons this year, relatively speaking (they are still regularly targeting grassroots anti-junta activists). However, as the recently rejected constitution draft has effectively extended the military's authoritarian rule by at least another 7 months and democratic elections are delayed to as late as June 2017 (one and a half years later than promised after the coup), the generals seem to be even more sensitive of criticism. Deputy junta Prime Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan has warned that anybody "slandering" the NCPO will be "called into army camp", as "now is not the time" for that.

Junta leader and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha - who's about to leave for the United Nation's General Assembly in order to make the international community "know him better" - further emphasized the government's low-to-zero tolerance stance last week, lashing out at journalists in his usual mercurial and sardonic demeanor, and threatening to silence every critic by jailing them "again and again". "I’m just going to tape their mouths shut," he added - just like second time-detainee and journalist Pravit did to himself before his first "attitude adjustment".

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Opinion: Low stakes for Thai military junta in constitution draft vote

Originally published at Siam Voices on the morning of September 6, 2015 UPDATE (11.00 AM, Sunday, September 6, 2015): The National Reform Council has REJECTED the constitutional draft with 134 to 105 votes and 7 abstentions. A new constitution has to be drafted and thus a whole new process with an all new committee is set in motion, while the whole timetable to possible future elections will be delayed by at least 6 months. The Thai military junta and the interim constitution (incl. the catch-all Article 44) will still stay in power in the meantime to at least roughly early 2017.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE (Published earlier Sunday morning before NRC vote)

One could say that it’s a sign of dedication if you’re coming to work on a Sunday. Others would say that they have no other choice - which is rather ironic since the very reason they’re currently convening this morning (as of of writing) is about a vote.

The National Reform Committee (NRC) is coming together this Sunday morning to deliberate and vote on the draft for Thailand’s next constitution, a crucial step that decides the political direction of the foreseeable future in the country.

Since the beginning of the year, the Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC) has been busy penning the country’s charter No. 20 after the previous 2007 version (enacted after the military coup of 2006) was suspended after the military coup of May 2014. They were so busy in fact that they needed another month to put on the finishing touches.

Despite all the polish and trimming (from a 315 article behemoth to ‘just’ 285), there are many members of the NRC who are not entirely happy with many of its contents and have already voiced their opposition to it. Does this mean a possible bump in the road back to democracy in Thailand and a sign of trouble for the military junta (which has appointed all NRC members, by the way), which has kept the whole political discourse strictly in line until now?

The answer is rather simple: it doesn’t really matter for them either way!

On one hand, a positive outcome for the draft would constitutionally enshrine the undemocratic nature of the junta’s ‘reforms’ to Thai politics that enables non-elected elements to intervene any elected government at almost any time. One of these clauses is the recently added Article 260, the "Committee for Reform Strategy and National Reconciliation" - a euphemism for a politburo-style executive committee co-existing for five years alongside an elected government (still with a 4-year term limit) with powers to take over at anytime in a yet-to-be-defined ‘crisis’ situation. Also, this and other bodies would be created to deter any substantial constitutional amendments that could dismantle these bodies.

On the other hand, a ”no” vote would also come in handy for the military junta since the timetable for this whole drafting process - which took round about 8 months - would start anew as stipulated in the interim constitution. We have pointed out several times that an endless loop of drafting and rejecting would technically be possible and this legislative limbo would be the junta’s Groundhog Day. In other words, the military government would be able to prolong their direct rule.

Either way, the stakes are incredibly low for the military junta.

Also, if the NRC members were really concerned about the undemocratic nature of the draft, they wouldn't and shouldn't have agreed to take part in this kabuki theater, as this process only creates the illusion of choice and proper process.

Same goes for the public referendum (in case this draft gets passed) scheduled early next year, which decides when (or rather if) the next election is going to be held. But the people’s choice itself could seemingly become a moot point, since the junta’s law experts ‘just’ happen to discover that it is seemingly nearly impossible to even reach a minimum quota of positive votes for the constitution draft thanks to the wording in the interim constitution, unless that hole get patched pretty soon. And even if everything goes smoothly up until that point, the latest suggestion for new elections is for the end of 2016, which is a whole year later than what the junta originally promised.

Either way, we'll soon know more about where Thailand's political future goes next - until that most people would have likely woken up on this Sunday morning.

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Thai junta's constitution drafters propose 'indirectly elected' Senate

Originally published at Siam Voices on February 27, 2015 The Constitutional Drafting Committee are continuing to re-write the political rule book for a post-coup Thailand. But, like with all the military junta's government bodies, the claim to "reform" and bring "true democracy" is questionable, as the most recent proposals for an unelected sorry, "indirectly elected" Senate shows.

One of the key elements of Thailand's military government is the Constitutional Draft Committee (CDC), which is tasked to, well, write a new constitution that lays the legal groundwork for a new elected government (when we actually get there is another matter), the first one since the military coup last May that has temporarily indefinitely suspended electoral democracy. However, just like all other government bodies of the Thai junta - such as the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), the rubber-stamping ersatz-parliament, and the National Reform Council (NRC), a rather exclusive group suggesting wide-ranging reforms - the CDC is fully-appointed and of questionable political bias.

Since its nomination in November, the 36-member strong committee has 120 days to accomplish the herculean task to not only write a new charter, but also to have one that (appears to at least) curtail what they call "parliamentarian dictatorship", which they and their allies accuse the past successfully elected governments associated to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of, including the last one of his sister Yingluck Shinawatra before it got toppled by the military that is running the country now.

Among the many changes the CDC is currently proposing is the make-up of the Senate, the Upper House next to the House of Representatives. In pre-2014 coup Thailand (and thus post-2006 coup), the 150-member Senate was half-elected and half-appointed. But now, the CDC is suggesting this model instead:

Thailand's new 200-member Senate (...) will be chosen from pools of candidates, including former premiers, ex-military leaders and representatives of different professions, another committee spokesman, Lertrat Ratanavanich, said Wednesday. They can only serve one six-year term.

"Thai constitution drafters say Senate to be unelected", Associated Press, February 26, 2015

This doesn't sound as straightforward as the previous system, so how will they be exactly chosen?

The Senate will consist of 200 members, half of whom will be chosen by the council of "experts," which Bowornsak described as "a diverse group of individuals with expertise and morality about politics, national administration, the judicial system, society, ethnology, and folk wisdom."

It remains unclear how the council of experts will be chosen.

The other Senators - also appointed - will be chosen from a pool of former high-level politicians and bureaucrats such as prime ministers, military commanders, parliament speakers, judicial leaders, and representatives from other civic organizations.

"Junta's Charter Drafter Clarifies 'Unelected' Senate", Khaosod English, February 26, 2015

In case you're wondering how this "pool" of candidates is being set up, here's the complete list:

Senators will be selected from among five categories of people: former prime ministers, former Supreme Court presidents and former parliament presidents; former high-ranking state officials such as military leaders and permanent secreta­ries; heads of legally registered professional organisations; people's organisations such as labour unions, agricultural co-operatives and academics; and other groups such as lawyers, environmental activists, poverty networks and healthcare experts.

Senators from the first four groups will be selected from among themselves, while those from the fifth will be nominated by a screening committee and selected by the National People's Assembly and executives and members of local administrative bodies.

"CDC agrees to indirect Senate pick", Bangkok Post, February 26, 2015

So basically a bunch of yet-to-be-defined committees supposedly representing a broad spectrum of the population would be tasked to choose the candidates for the Senate, making it practically fully appointed.

However, the chairman of the CDC, Bowornsak Uwanno (pictured above), does not agree with this notion:

"Certain newspapers and TV channels have identified the new Senate as unelected," CDC chairman Bowornsak Uwanno said at a press conference today. "It's not lovely. It's an inaccurate presentation of news.” (...)

However, the CDC chairman stressed today that elected members of local administrative organizations will be included in the process of selecting senators, because they will be responsible from choosing 100 senators from a list of 200 candidates approved by the panel of "experts."

"Therefore, accusations that the new Senate is unelected are false," Bowornsak said.

He also told reporters that some foreign countries have similar parliamentary models, citing France, though he failed to point out that French senators are indirectly elected by a "super-electorate" of elected local and regional officials, whose options are not screened by any unelected panel of professionals.

"Junta's Charter Drafter Clarifies 'Unelected' Senate", Khaosod English, February 26, 2015

OK, so he is saying that it is still a democratic process because the people are voting the local officials, who then, alongside other officials, are going to pick 100 senators pre-selected from a yet-to-be-defined-but-very-likely-appointed "expert" vetting panel, which still leaves the other 100 senators to be chosen in a yet-to-be-defined-but-also-very-likely-appointed fashion.

And how large is that percentage of elected local officials who would be picking the senators? It doesn't matter, because the military junta has suspended local elections anyways and replaced outgoing officials with - guess what? - appointed ones!

To say that CDC chairman Bowornsak's argument that the Senate wouldn't be unelected is shaky at best and at worst rather disingenuous, which makes the description of an "indirectly elected" upper House one hell of a political euphemism.

There's a certain irony here when you compare this to the efforts during the Yingluck administration to amend the constitution to make the Senate fully-elected again. While the underlying motivations could still be questioned, the principle of a fully-elected Senate was enough of a reason for the Constitutional Court, in what many observers say a politically charged verdict, to outlaw these proposed amendments. Even worse, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) - which has recently impeached the already toppled former PM Yingluck - was going after most of the lawmakers involved and is thinking about doing it again.

And now (arguably) the same similarly politically-aligned camp that was against the previous amendments and is now running the country (one striking example is Rosana Tositrakul, back then an appointed senator who petitioned the Constitutional Court and now, surprise, a member of the National Reform Council), is now floating the proposal for a Senate that really isn't elected at all.

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Siam Voices series: 28 weeks later in post-coup Thailand

Over the past seven days, the Siam Voices team (including yours truly) ran a week-long series of articles on 6 months after the military coup of May 22, 2014. Here are the links to all the parts: Introduction: 28 weeks later in post-coup Thailand by Saksith Saiyasombut Part 1: Economic stability comes at a cost under Thailand’s military junta Part 2: Prayuth, censorship and the media in post-coup Thailand Part 3: An education fit for a zombie? by Jack Radcliffe Part 4: Are Thai people really happy after the coup? by Thitipol Panyalimpanun Part 5: Thailand’s junta and the war on corruption Part 6: PDRC myths and Thailand’s privileged ‘new generation’ by Chan Nilgianskul Part 7: Thailand tourism down, but not out Part 8: Education reform in Thailand under the junta by Daniel Maxwell Part 9: 28 weeks later in post-coup Thailand: Some personal thoughts by Saksith Saiyasombut

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Thai court dismisses murder charges against Abhisit and Suthep

Originally published at Siam Voices on August 29, 2014 Thailand's Criminal Court has dismissed murder charges against former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his then-Deputy pPM Suthep Thuagsuban for their roles in the violent crackdown on anti-government protesters in 2010. Over 90 people were killed and thousands injured (both protesters and security officers) when the military dispersed the red shirt protesters after weeks of rallies in central Bangkok. The protesters were calling for the resignation of Abhisit's government and a new election.

The Criminal Court's decision on Thursday seems to stem from a technicality:

The court said it did not have jurisdiction to hear the case because the two men held public office at the time of the protest.

"The court has no jurisdiction to consider the case because the two were a prime minister and deputy prime minister," a judge said on Thursday. "The charges relate to political office holders. The criminal court therefore dismisses the charges."

"Thai court dismisses murder charges against former PM, deputy", Reuters, August 28, 2014

The charge against Abhisit and Suthep was filed in late 2012 by police, prosecutors and the Department of Special Investigations (DSI) on the latter's recommendation and followed a growing number of court rulings saying that protesters were killed by bullets fired by soldiers.

Suthep, who was in charge of national security and thus tasked with overseeing the security situation during the protests as director of the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situation (CRES), authorized security forces to disperse the protests back in 2010 (including the use of deadly force) and has since then repeatedly rejected any responsibility or blame for the deaths of the protesters. At one point he even suggetsed that they "ran into the bullets". In late 2013, he quit Abhisit's Democrat Party and became an unlikely protest leader against the government of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (who the red shirts support).

The nearly half year of prolonged rallies and sabotaging created the political impasse the military used a pretext to carry out a coup on May 22 - Suthep claims this to be planned since 2010. Ever since the coup and a very brief detainment by the junta, Suthep has entered Buddhist monkhood and is essentially under political asylum.

Thursday's dismissal means that any accountability on the army's part is very unlikely, especially under the military junta. Its leader, army chief and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha was deputy commander-in-chief during the 2010 crackdown and since becoming army chief a year later he has actively interfered in the DSI's investigation:

On August 16, 2012, Prayuth told the Justice Ministry’s Department of Special Investigation to stop accusing soldiers of killing demonstrators during the government’s crackdown on the “Red Shirt” protest in 2010 and not to report publicly on the progress of its investigations. Prayuth has denied any army abuses during the violence in which at least 98 people died and more than 2,000 were injured, despite numerous accounts by witnesses and other evidence.

Prayuth is also using Thailand’s archaic criminal defamation law to deter public criticism, Human Rights Watch said. On August 17, Prayuth ordered an army legal officer to file a criminal defamation complaint against Robert Amsterdam, a lawyer representing the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Amsterdam’s translator. At a UDD rally on May 19, Amsterdam gave a speech in which he alleged that the army committed brutality against demonstrators for which it should be held accountable.

"Thailand: Army Chief Interfering in Investigations", Human Rights Watch, August 23, 2012

The DSI chief Tharit Pengdit, who reportedly apologized to Prayuth for the accusations back then, was removed from his post shortly following the military coup.

While the main charge of premeditated murder has been dropped by the Criminal Court for now, it doesn't mean the end of legal challenges for Abhisit and Suthep, as other avenues have already been explored:

Since a petition has also been filed against Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep with the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which is responsible for handling criminal cases against politicians, the court also ruled that if the NACC finds the petition against them has sufficient grounds, the graft agency is duty-bound to forward the case to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Posts for further consideration.

"Abhisit, Suthep murder case rejected", Bangkok Post, August 28, 2014

Given Thursday's dismissal by the Criminal Court, the generally slow pace of the investigations and the current ruling military junta, it will be now even less than likely that anybody from the past Abhisit administration - let alone the army - be held accountable for the deaths during the 2010 protests, as prolonged impunity adds to the growing pile of reasons for the political conflict, no matter who is calling the shots right now.

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Thai military junta tightens grip on media, issues gag order

Originally published at Siam Voices on July 22, 2014 Thailand's military government has further tightened its grip on the country's media by banning criticism of the junta, threatening to shut down the offending media outlet and legal consequences.

The edict came at a time when probably not many were listening. On Friday night, shortly after the weekly, self-adulating TV address by army chief and coup leader General Prayuth Chan-Ocha, all television broadcasts were temporarily stopped again for another announcement by the "National Council for Peace and Order" (NCPO), as the military junta calls itself.

In announcement number 97 since the military coup nearly two months ago, the subject line was innocuously titled "Cooperating with the work of the National Council for Peace and Order and the distributing of news to the public".

However, its contents were yet again a reaffirmed open threat to the media and anyone else daring to criticize the military coup and the junta with is now in control of both the government and the narrative:

3. Operators and providers in the media of all types, both state and privately owned - including radio; television broadcasted via terrestrial, cable, digital or internet; newspapers, journals or other publications; including all types of electronic media including social media - are obliged to distribute the information as presented by the NCPO. In this regard, a person should cease presenting information in the following:

(1) False or defamatory information or that creates hatred towards the monarchy, the heir, and all royals.

(2) Information that could harm national security, including the libel of others.

(3) Criticism of the work of the NCPO, its officials and associated persons.

(4) Secret recordings - audio, image and video - of the secret work done by government agencies.

(5) Information that causes confusion, that incites or provokes conflict or divisions in the Kingdom.

- Taken from: "ประกาศคณะรักษาความสงบแห่งชาติ - ฉบับที่ 97/2557", National Council for Peace and Order, July 18, 2014 - Translated by author

Furthermore, the soliciting of resistance against the NCPO and anything else that could "lead to panic" in the population will not be tolerated.

Failure to comply with these points could result in an effective shutdown of the offending news outlet by soldiers, provincial governors or city and provincial police chiefs. This could be followed by legal prosecution that could end up in front of a military court since Thailand is still under martial law, invoked two days before the coup.

The junta has repeatedly already made clear that it will not tolerate dissent - while at the same time Gen. Prayuth has invited the public to voice their disagreements in a civil manner during his weekly addresses. Friday's edict is as broadly worded as previous ones when it comes to defining what actually does constitute as criticism, as defamation, as a threat to national security, etc.

There's also another problem with the edict:

Thai Journalists Association chairman Pradit Ruangdit said the junta's order (...) may allow authorities to abuse their power in suspending the broadcast or publication violating the order.

"It is not clear if there will be any warnings, any steps or any approaches in determining the offense," Pradit said in a statement. "If there is an abuse of power and there is no check and balance process, it is more likely that this will create a bad impact."

He said the Thai Journalists Association would call a meeting next week with media executives and professionals to discuss and find a solution to the problem.

-"Thai Junta's Gag on Media Raises Alarm, Criticism", Associated Press, July 19, 2014

Not only has the edict effectively banned criticism media criticism of the NCPO, but also interviews with academics and former civil servants who could "give opinions in a manner that can inflict or worsen the conflict, distort information, create confusion in the society or lead to the use of violence".

This apparent gag order by the junta is not only limited to the mainstream media and its journalists and reporters. NCPO spokesman Colonel Winthai Suvaree emphasized that the junta is not only seeking "cooperation" from the media, but from all individuals - effectively pointing the finger at all Thai social media users, who have been facing heightened measures by the junta to block or otherwise restrict access online.

The military junta has already set up media watchdogs to monitor unfavorable coverage and debate in print, on air and online, a clear indication that it has a very clear idea how the public political discourse sohould be shaped, but - given its blanket gag order - not so much when it comes to identifying who they're actually up against.

The only aspect in the announcement that was more comprehensible compared to the previous ones is the open contempt of anything that does not fit the junta's narrative that is being discussed in public.

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The Thai post-coup government: The junta's shadowy cabinet

Originally published at Siam Voices on July 7, 2014 This is part two in a three-part series looking at how the Thai junta government after the military coup will be structured, governed and by whom this will be led. Part one details the mass purge among government officials. Today we look who could be in the interim cabinet.

Since the military coup of May 22, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) spent its first weeks seizing and establishing full control over the branches of government power. The sole executive and legislative powers at the moment lie in the hands of the generals and their advisors. The notable exception is the judiciary (i.e. Constitutional Court) and the supposedly "independent" government agencies like the Election Commission and National Anti-Corruption Commission, which all played a role in at least exacerbating Thailand's political deadlock that ended with the coup d'etat.

But the junta is now quickly moving ahead to work on the implementation of the next interim constitution, the government (both of which we will be discussing in a future article in the series), and with it the next cabinet. As repeatedly stated by the junta and its leader, army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, all these should be coming around very soon, "at the latest in September," as Prayuth said in one of the weekly televised NCPO announcements. 

While no official announcements have been made about the make-up of the future cabinet, it didn’t stop Thai media from speculating who is likely to be appointed as a minister in the next Thai government, as Matichon Weekly magazine and the Thai Rath daily newspaper did last month.

This is what Matichon predicts the administration of "Prayuth 1" could look like:

  • Prime Minister: Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha
  • Deputy-PM (Security): Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan
  • Deputy-PM (Economy): Pridiyathorn Devakula
  • Deputy-PM (Commerce) Somkid Jatusripitak
  • Deputy-PM (Law): Visanu Krue-ngam
  • Foreign Minister: Surakiat Sathirathai
  • Defense Minister: Gen. Anupong Paochinda
  • Interior Minister: Gen. Daopong Rattanasuwan
  • Transport Minister: Air Chief Marshall Prajin Jantong
  • ICT Minister: Gen. Thanasak Pratimapagorn
  • Energy Minister: Piyasvasti Amranand or Prasert Boonsampan
  • Justice Minister: Borownsak Uwanno
  • Finance Minister: Prasarn Trairatvorakul
- Source: "คอลัมน์: ลึกแต่ไม่ลับ", Matichon Weekly, Vol. 34, Issue 1766, June 20, 2014

Thai Rath’s cabinet prediction is the same concerning the Defense, Interior and Transport portfolio, with the latter two ministers also potentially becoming deputy-PMs. It also sees Police-General Adul Saengsing-Kaew and Navy commander-in-chief Admiral Narong Pipthanasai being appointed deputy prime ministers as well as Assistant Army Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant-General Paibul Kumchaya and deputy army chief Gen. Udomdej Sitabutr getting cabinet positions.

Both lists include numerous familiar names from the military and former administrations, not least because almost all of them are working in the current junta administration (see our infographic here), either overseeing the ministries they may or may not be heading in the near future, or serving on the advisory board to the junta. Case in point: its chief advisors, former defense minister Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan and former army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda. Both men have reportedly supported the prolonged anti-government protests of the ousted prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Among the non-military members of the speculated interim cabinet are Surakiat Sathirathai (Foreign) and Somkid Jatusripitak (Commerce) - both former ministers under Thaksin Shinawatra a decade ago - current Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul (Finance), Prasert Boonsampan (former CEO of the state-owned oil and gas company PTT) and Piyasvasti Amranand (former Thai Airways CEO and recently appointed PTT chairman), both tipped to become the next energy minister under the junta. 

Somkid is particularly interesting since during the Thaksin years, he was credited for the economic and social (often called populist) policies that won over the rural population and ensured a solid large voter base for the following elections. That seemingly clashes with the persistent anti-populism stance of anti-Thaksin groups including the military junta, so much so that the junta wants to have populism outlawed in the next charter. However, unlike his fellow cabinet and party members he was not arrested after the last military coup of 2006 and he has apparently broken his ties with Thaksin, which partially explains why he’s now one of the advisors to the junta.

But the biggest question that also has the largest consensus among political observers is the position of the prime minister, which will be most likely filled by none other than army chief and junta leader Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha himself.

Gen Prayuth could remain as NCPO chief so he could continue to supervise the new government to be set up in early September. The difference is whether he would retire as army chief or extend his term while serving as NCPO chief.

The other scenario is that Gen Prayuth could become prime minister himself in line with the NCPO's increasing popularity. He could then appoint new heads of the armed forces so the rank and file could be promoted.

-"Prayuth at a crossroads as retirement nears", Bangkok Post, June 21, 2014

Gen. Prayuth is scheduled to retire as army chief on September 30 during the annual reshuffle of military officers. Same goes for Gen. Thanasak Patimapakorn, Adm. Narong Pipattanasai and ACM Prajin Juntong, the commander-in-chief of the supreme command, the navy and the air force respectively.

Not only would the timing fit here, since Prayuth could be at the helm of the interim government beginning in September when the aforementioned military reshuffling takes place or a new budget is seeking approval. But it also is in line with the general impression that Thailand’s junta, with the new interim cabinet, constitution and parliamentary bodies, is making sure to put down the new roots in order to wield considerable influence for the next government(s) to come.

However, the rumored self-appointment would also unwittingly turn General Prayuth into something he would deny wanting to become: a politician.

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On 'happiness' and Thai opinion polls after the military coup

Originally published at Siam Voices on June 24, 2014 We here at Siam Voices usually do not cover Thai opinion polls for two reasons: first, there are too many of them out there on a weekly basis by the major survey institutes (ABAC, NIDA and Suan Dusit) alone, and second, they're mostly crap! The main problems with Thai opinion polls are the wording of the questions and a rather small sample size of the people being surveyed. There have been several examples in the past that at least raised some eyebrows about the questions asked and the results that come out of that - see a few of Bangkok Pundit's numerous posts here, here and here.

After the military coup last month at the height of a prolonged political crisis with street protests and a (man-made) political impasse, the first several opinion surveys are saying that the general mood has improved - despite heavy-handed and draconian measures such as media censorship and detentions by the military junta and a "happiness campaign" to win back the hearts and minds it those it had intimidated.

Let's start with Suan Dusit Rajabhat University's June 15 survey, ranking the top 10 things that made 1,634 respondents the most happy about the military coup (paraphrased):

  1. No more political protests - 93.09%
  2. Situation is safer - 87.12%
  3. Reduced cost of living, fixed fuel and gas prices - 85.99%
  4. Rice farmers are getting paid - 84.29%
  5. Fixing the economy - 80.24%
  6. Battling corruption - 77.32%
  7. Commitment of junta's work - 73.53%
  8. Soldiers ensuring a safer daily life - 73.14%
  9. Increased arrests of criminals - 71.96%
  10. Free stuff by the junta (World Cup free-TV coverage, concerts, movie tickets etc.) 71.31%

"ความสุขที่ประชาชนได้รับ จาก คสช.", Suan Dusit Poll, June 15, 2014 - (PDF)

None of the previous Suan Dusit surveys (among them titled "Top 10 things Thais think should be reformed" and "What the junta needs to say to convince you") have actually asked if the respondents are actually happy with the military coup. That was remedied in the most recent poll by them on June 22, on the one-month anniversary of the coup.

The National Council for Peace and Order, as the junta is known, scored an approval rating of 8.82 out of 10 points in a poll of 1,600 people conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University and released Sunday.

Those surveyed cited the junta’s ability to quickly implement short-term measures needed to restore stability and economic confidence, as the main reasons for their positive reviews.

The majority of the people polled said they were satisfied with the absence of the protests and political violence that began at the start of the year and escalated until the military took charge of the government on May 22.

About 65% of respondents said they wanted the military to remain in charge of the country to complete its measures to eradicate corruption and speed up economic and political reforms.

"Thai Junta Scores High Approval Rating, Despite Concerns", Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2014

To be precise, they asked 1,614 people in the final question:

5. How satisfied are you with the junta's governing after one month?

  • 50.84%: Very satisfied, because situation is peaceful, order has been restored, problems being solved swiftly etc.
  • 39.57%: Somewhat satisfied, because security has improved etc.
  • 5.27%: Not satisfied, because it's only a short-term solution, there're still conflicting news etc.
  • 4.32%: Not satisfied at all, because it's undemocratic, rights are being restricted, no freedom etc.

"ประเมินผลงาน 1 เดือน คสช. ประเมินผลงาน 1 เดือน คสช.", Suan Dusit Poll, June 22, 2014 - (PDF)

However, in a previous question in the same survey 37.98 per cent of respondents also said that "there're still people not accepting and protesting the coup that say their rights are being restricted" as an actual problem.

Another head-scratching survey result was carried out by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) - whose political impartiality is questionable, since NIDA-associated personnel were involved in the anti-government protests - which found this...

The Nida Poll was carried out on June 20-21 on 1,259 people all over the country to gauge their opinion on who the NCPO should nominate for prime minister. Most of the respondents, 41.30%, said the NCPO should nominate Gen Prayuth, the army and NCPO chief, for the post.

This was followed by 8.5% for two-time former prime minister Anand Panyarachun, 2.38% for former Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan, 1.43% for former finance minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula and 1.19% for former deputy prime minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

"Most Thais want Prayuth as PM", Bangkok Post, June 22, 2014

It found 5.24 per cent suggested former prime ministers Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Chuan Leekpai, Gen. Surayud Chulanont among other politicians and senior military figures. That leaves a significant 26.5 per cent that had no answer at all, while 10.33 per cent said nobody's apt for the post - that's hardly an overwhelming "majority" as the Bangkok Post has titled it.

And finally, in the wake of the junta organizing free screening of the fifth installment of the nationalistic, dramatized biopic series of the 16th-century King Naresuan, the ABAC Poll of the Assumption University:

The opinion survey was carried out on June 15 and 16, involving 424 people who went to see the free screenings of the movie on Sunday.

Nearly all respondents, 95.3% to be exact, said they came away happier after seeing the film. However, 5.4% said they were only moderately happy with it, while 0.9% said they were no happier.

"Thais cheered up by Naresuan movie", Bangkok Post, June 17, 2014

That sentiment was also echoed by the so-called "Thai Researchers in Community Happiness Association" (whose name apparently is mangled in translation) whose majority (93.7 per cent) of 424 Bangkok-based moviegoers were "happy" to have seen the movie - what else would an institution with that name have found out? Just to be clear, a sample of only 424 people are overwhelmingly positive about a movie they have seen for free!

All these surveys prove the main problems with Thai opinion polls - a small sample group and the wording of the questions and possible answers - still exist. This is especially true in the post-coup environment, where criticism of the military is difficult at best and public dissent not tolerated. It is unlikely that the positive-sounding poll results reflect the complete picture - which also explains why the deputy national police chief can claim that "90 per cent of various opinion polls support" the junta's work.

Only a real, all-encompassing method to hear out the opinion of a large section of the population could bring in a clearer picture like, you know, a referendum, or an election...!

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Suthep claims 'in talks with Prayuth' since 2010 to plot Thai coup

Originally published at Siam Voices on June 23, 2014 [getty src="492828667?et=FrpMuFHUQ09cqt_O4Rlmeg&sig=vKCwuRag-CRA2g0ZxyxU8AOHUkSFY0HXIOrT4Txe2Bw=" width="600" height="445"]

Former opposition politician and anti-government protest leader Suthep Thuagsuban claims to have been in talks with Thailand's army chief and coup leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha to topple the governments associated to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra "since 2010", according to local media.

The Bangkok Post reported on Monday...

[Suthep] admitted for the first time he had discussed with the coup-maker Prayuth Chan-ocha strategies to root out the influence of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies since the 2010 political violence.

Mr Suthep broke his silence at a fund-raising dinner on Saturday night at the Pacific Club in Bangkok.

His remarks suggest Gen Prayuth has been actively plotting to bring down former prime minister Yingluck Shinwatra, including the period leading up to the coup when she was defense minister. (...)

He said he chats regularly to Gen Prayuth and his team via the Line chat app.

“Before martial law was declared, Gen Prayuth told me ‘Khun Suthep and your masses of PDRC supporters are too exhausted. It’s now the duty of the army to take over the task’, ” Mr Suthep said.

He had consulted Gen Prayuth since the 2010 political unrest on how to root out the so-called Thaksin regime and join hands to reform the country, fight corruption and dissolve colour-coded politics that divided Thais.

"Suthep in talks with Prayuth ‘since 2010’", Bangkok Post, June 23, 2014

In 2010, Suthep was deputy prime minister in charge of national security and director of the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situation (CRES), which was tasked with overseeing the security situation during the red shirt protests in Bangkok (including authorizing the use of deadly force). Gen. Prayuth was at the time deputy commander-in-chief and tipped to become the successor to then-army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda. Both played a pivotal role in the deadly crackdown on the red shirt protesters in May 2010 which killed at least 90 people and injured thousands.

So it should come as no surprise that Suthep and the military have maintained contact since 2010 - but also already before that: a leaked US diplomatic cable from 2008 notes that Suthep "maintains contacts in all camps, including the military". Also, it explains the apparent refusal to intervene when the Suthep's anti-government protesters were occupying large areas in central Bangkok and obstructing the elections earlier this year.

Also, Reuters reported in December that defense minister Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan and former army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda were supporting Suthep's protests behind the scenes. Both Gen. Prawit and Gen. Anopong are now serving as the junta's chief advisor and its deputy, respectively.

[getty src="493867683?et=VqpR7c5_Srh0u8HLyzs3aQ&sig=lEAzkNivHBd2tJqfEqWXSpNW975gJxbpG3z4b5RDD9Y=" width="594" height="433"]

Nevertheless, the reaction from the military junta was equally unsurprising:

"Gen Prayuth insisted he had never talked or exchanged messages in private with Mr Suthep," Col Winthai said.

"He said as leader of a security force, he had been assigned by the then government to persuade all groups to negotiate, a feat that had never been achieved," he said.

"Yingluck Shinawatra, the government at the time, instructed the army to warn all groups to avoid breaking the law and protect the people," he said. (...)

According to sources, Gen Prayuth was "very upset" with Mr Suthep as the atmosphere is improving. 

"Prayuth denies Suthep's coup plotting claim", Bangkok Post, June 23, 2014

Meanwhile, the Bangkok Post's "military correspondent" Wassana Nanuam has clarified that the initial report was not based on a third party source, but on a Bangkok Post colleague who actually attended Suthep's charity event on Saturday:

Whether or not Suthep was either reminding us that the protest movement he led is still alive or reminding the military junta about their role in the run-up to the military coup, it does show yet again that the interests of those that demanded and ultimately chased out the government of Yingluck Shinawatra were, and still are, closely aligned.

P.S.: About that LINE conversation...

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Thai Public Health Ministry warns of 'news over-consumption'... again!

Originally published at Siam Voices on June 3, 2014 [Author's note: Due to the military coup of May 22, 2014 and subsequent censorship measures we have placed certain restrictions on what we publish. Please also read Bangkok Pundit's post on that subject. We hope to return to full and free reporting and commentary in the near future.]

With the Thai political crisis lasting almost seven months, those people not  thoroughly exhausted yet (or simply still not jaded enough) have been following the events of the last two weeks on a variety of news and social media sources for the latest developments. Even after the seizure of power by the military on May 22, Thai citizens were still looking for any sort of information they can get despite the censorship measures by the military junta.

However, it seems that one can get overwhelmed by the sustained flood of information and the supposed mental burden of differentiating fact from fiction. That's at least what the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) thinks and has warned of "over-consumption of news, which may lead to mental stress," according to the state-owned and pro-government (no matter who's in charge) National News Bureau of Thailand.

But this is not the first time that Thai health officials are warning against the too-much-information syndrome. Back in the summer of 2012 we reported that a spokesman of the Mental Health Department of the public health ministry specifically warned people  “not to follow political news for more than two hours in a sitting”, since that could result in what they coined as "Political Stress Syndrome" (PSS).

The same department warned politically curious Thais for the first time way back in March 2006 (arguably the early days of the Thai political crisis) of said syndrome. ”Psychiatrists are afraid that people with accumulated PSS symptoms will resort to violent means to break the political dead end because they feel that a peaceful movement is not a solution to the impasse,” a Thai mental health official said at the time.

In 2012, the Mental Health Department - while acknowledging that the heightened political awareness among Thais is ultimately a good thing for the nation's progress - suggested essentially that people should be more careful and considerate towards each other when expressing political opinions, especially online.

Back in the very different present, the solution offered now by Ministry of Public Health is more clear-cut:

Wachira Phengchan, deputy permanent secretary of the Ministry of Public Health, on Friday cautioned those who constantly follow up on political developments against stress. According to him, the continuous exposure to such news could cause mental stress, and people at risk of such stress are advised to follow only the news from state-run news outlets in the morning and evening.

"MOPH warns against mental stress resulting from over-consumption of news", National News Bureau of Thailand, May 24, 2014

The checklist published in the 2012 MOHP announcement in order to determine if an individual is suffering from "Political Stress Syndrome" likely still or even more so applies today in the current political situation:

1) “Do you feel anxiety when expressing political opinions?”, 2) “Do you feel hopelessness regarding the current political situation?”, 3) ”Do political news make you feel easily upset or angry?”, 4) “The political situation keeps you awake at night?”, 5) “Are you unfocused at your job or daily activities when thinking about politics?” 6) “Politics causes fights and arguments with others?” 7) “Are you feeling afraid when following political news?” 8) “Are you repeatedly thinking about the political situation?”

Ministry of Public Health Press Release, July 13, 2012

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Siam Voices 2013 Year in Review - All Parts

Here are all my posts of the Siam Voices 2013 Year in Review series of the past week in one handy list for you:

Thank you everybody for the support! Happy New Year and may 2014 bring us some good news for right reasons to write about...!

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Siam Voices 2013 review – Part 5: What else happened in Thailand…?

Originally published at Siam Voices on December 31, 2013 This is the final part of our Siam Voices 2013 year in review, as we look what else made headlines in Thailand in the past 12 months - including the strange, outrageous and ridiculous. You can read the previous parts here: Part 1: Politics - Part 2: Lèse Majesté & the media - Part 3: The Rohingya - Part 4: Education and reform calls

It has become somewhat of a tradition now at the end of every year in review that we highlight all those news stories that were for various reasons not covered in the blog and mostly talked (rather more ranted) about on my Twitter feed. So without further ado, here's the definitive incomplete look back at what else happened in Thailand, from the noteworthy to the quirky and from nonsensical to downright ridiculous.

Most unexpected pro-LGBT message of the year: During the Bangkok gubernatorial race earlier this year, the main challenger to the incumbent (and later re-elected) Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Pheu Thai Party's Pongsapat Pongcharoen published a campaign video with an unexpected pro-LGBT message promoting sexual diversity, mainly aimed at wooing the city's potential transgender voters. While he didn't mentioned more details how that would have been reflected in his policies, this we saw a legislative push to bring legal equality to same-sex marriages in Thailand, which would be the first country in Southeast Asia to do so. While a survey last year polled 60 per cent to be against same sex marriage, Thailand is generally known to be tolerant (but not entirely accepted) towards diverse genders and sexual orientations. A bill would have been submitted for a vote in the later months of the year, but due to the current political crisis and the dissolvement of the House, the legislation has been put on the backburner for now.

Media failures of the year: Those who are regularly following me know that I can be admittedly harsh on my colleagues in the Thai media. But apart from the small typos or mix-ups, there were three particular inexcusable cases of failures: one of them is when Daily News posted the full ID card (with photo) of a British gang-rape victim (which as taken down shortly after public backlash), and then there was Channel 3 showing the full murder of two women, but instead blurred the perpetrator's gun (as per regulation).

In both cases, the authorities also are partly to be blamed since it was them who released the pictures to the media, as they did in the case of a 12-year-old ethnic Karen girl that was kidnapped and tortured by a couple in Kamphaeng Phet province (who unsurprisingly jumped bail and are still at large) - in fact they actually stripped her almost naked to document her mutilated body after years of torture by the couple in front of the press. While they did not show her face, the media are the last line of defense for crime victims and should apply their own judgement, rather than to recite everything said by the police ad verbatim - the victims deserve better.

Media mix-up of the year:  Channel 5 for running a picture of actress Meryl Streep portraying the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher instead of the actual Iron Lady herself. However, they weren't the only ones who made such a blunder on that occasion as a Taiwanese TV station ran footage of Queen Elizabeth II during the news of Thatcher's passing. Also, (almost predictably) some people also confused actor Morgan Freeman for the late Nelson Mandela...!

The worst Thailand-related article of the year: "10 Things Americans Can Learn From Bangkok", Huffington Post, February 26, 2013. Where to start...? Nearly all 10 points in this click-bait list are either incorrect ("SkyRail", eh?), horribly wrong ("the red light districts are well regulated by police officers and social workers" - really?!) or sheer nonsensical ("packed with people for whom globalization is a watch word")! But the worst part is: it unwittingly makes a case PRO lèse majesté ("Respect Your Elders") and confuses it for quirky local folklore...!

Pseudo-science in Thai media: In June, The Nation ran a story about John Hagelin, a physicist and "1994 Ig Nobel Peace Prize winner" who proposed the Thai army to use "quantum physics and transcendental meditation let the part of brain that created negative behaviour to relax and thus cut crime and terrorist attacks" for $1 million. What they fail to mention (or to look up): 1) his theory about a correlation between "physics and consciousness" is regarded as nonsense by most physicists and 2) the Ig Nobel Prize is "a parody award presented at Harvard University" as a "veiled criticism of trivial research".

Most celestial Thai political candidate: Thoranee Ritteethamrong, Bangkok gubernatorial candidate No. 21, came in dressed as the Chinese goddess Guanyin at the candidate sign-up and held her campaign without any billboards, but with a mandate "from heaven". That got her at least 922 votes (or 0.035 per cent) on election day.

Most unjustified flip-out by a Thai official: There are couple of well-known public figures well-known for their temper (*cough*Prayuth*cough*), but this one takes the prize this year: Interior minister Jarupong Ruangsuwan blew his lid when an assistant village chief made headlines about his unusual birthday - February 30 - and didn't get it fixed for 53 years. Instead of showing empathy with him (after all he couldn't open up a bank account for example because of this bureaucratic mistake), Jarupong accused the low-ranked official to be a fame-seeker and should "die out of shame" he brought onto the Interior Ministry. Unfortunately, the assistant village chief resigned because of the minister's apparent lack of EQ, but at least gets to officially celebrate his birthday now on every February 1.

Worst impression on the new colleagues at the first day of the new job: After losing his position as deputy prime minister for national security and being transferred to the labor ministry in the last cabinet reshuffle, Chalerm Yubamrung was crying foul play behind this move and that didn't stop on his first day at his new job, when he reportedly "spent more than an hour complaining about his transfer" after introduced himself to his new subjects co-workers - team confidence building, it isn't.

Insensitive and oblivious moments in Thai advertisement: A Thai woman in blackface in a commercial for a whitening-drink (!) actually becoming pale-skinned? Dunkin Donuts promoting their new 'charcoal' doughnuts with a Thai woman in blackface? A cosmetics brand offering 'scholarships' for the 'fairest' student? What could go wrong? A whole lot, actually!

Best Thailand-related viral video of the year: "Never Go To Thailand" by Brian Camusat. If only the Tourism Authority of Thailand would have even nearly as much swagger as this video - but then again it wouldn't possess the irony to title it like this...!

Most unconvincing suicide case:

CHIANG RAI [PROVINCE] - An unidentified foreigner is believed to have committed suicide in a bizarre way, putting his head in a water-filled plastic bag and then sealing it with a copper wire around his neck, in a field near the Myanmar border, reports said.

"Foreigner commits bizarre 'suicide'", Bangkok Post, January 4, 2013

Yeah, right...!

Strangest robbery of the year:

A robber made off with 2,200 baht [$71] in cash from a convenience store in Phuket province on Tuesday, but minutes later returned a 10-baht coin [$0.32] before escaping a second time.

"Store robber returns 10 baht", Bangkok Post, June 18, 2013

Most ambitious promise by a Thai politician:

The Ministry of Transport is expected to improve the entire public transport system within two months as several issues, such as passengers being rejected by taxi drivers and illegal parking, remain unresolved.

"Public transport issues to be solved in 2 months", National News Bureau of Thailand, July 15, 2013

Remember when Thaksin enthusiastically pledged to "free Bangkok of traffic jams in 6 months" back in the 1990s...?

Strangest dare of the year: After persistent rumors of 'chemically tainted' packed rice (which have proven to be not true), the president of the Thai Rice Association announced whoever eats one of their products and dies because of it will get 20 million Baht...!

Best costume: Deputy-prime minister Plodprasop Suraswadi as the 13th century Lanna King Mangrai...!

(Un-)honorable mentions: Wirapol Chattigo, the defrocked monk formerly known as "Luang Phu Nenkham", embroiled in a sea of scandals starting with being filmed on a private jet plane sporting luxury items, followed by accusations of money-laundering and child molestation and reportedly at large abroad. Red Bull heir Vorayuth Yoovidhya, who is suspected to have killed a police officer in a hit-and-run case in 2012, failed to show up to hear charges in early September because he's on an "overseas trip" and still hasn't returned yet. Chalerm Yubamrung (yes, again), for saying it's okay for "police officer to ask for money during Chinese New Year" since that's "not a bribe" and for setting off a terror alert against the US consulate in Chiang Mai and then announcing the suspect "has left the country" unhindered - and all that based on a mere "sniff"...!

And now, the strangest story of the year, from the "Best intentions but poorly executed"-category

Thai officials say a man who was high on drugs was arrested after attempting to donate methamphetamine tablets to help flood victims at a relief center. (...) [The man] told the volunteers they could sell the drugs and use the money to support the troubled families. The volunteers were actually from a civil drug suppression task force.

"Thai man arrested for giving meth to flood center", Associated Press, October 15, 2013

Final words: I’d like to thank my co-writers and editors at Siam Voices and Asian Correspondent for their contributions and hard work this year. And a special thanks to YOU, the readers, for your support, feedback and retweets! We wish you a Happy New Year 2014 - let's just hope that there'll be more stories to write about for all the right reasons...

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