German News Coverage of Saturday's Clashes

Thailand normally doesn't appear very often in the headlines in Germany. If so, it is in most cases the cliché stories on either the sandy beaches, farangs behaving badly in Pattaya, elephants in distress or other quirky and weird stuff. The so called 'hard news' are rarely to be found - except when there are color-coded anti-government protests with optional violent clashes like we have now. Here's how some German media outlets are seeing the current political situation. Bernd Musch-Borowska, South-East Asia correspondent for the public ARD radio affiliates, thinks that the clashes could have been avoided but the rifts between the government and the red shirts are growing more and more.

Both sides are as well right as they are wrong. They are all fighting to democracy, but nobody is ready to listen to the other side's opinion at the least. (...)

A few weeks ago he [Abhisit] could have saved the situation with genuine negotiations with the red shirts and a brave decision for fresh democratic elections. But now the damage has been done, Thailand's reputation is heavily ruined and an easy way out of the political crisis is now almost unreachable. Too big is the mistrust in each other.

(...) The Thai province has awaken under Thaksin and the rural people are not willing to let the elites in Bangkok, the military and the conservative royalists disenfranchise them of their basic democratic rights. Under Thaksin the Thais have understood, to use their voice in order to influence political decisions and can contribute for their improvement of their lives.

(...) Respect for each other would be the first step to a true democracy in Thailand.

"Kommentar: Die Eskalation hätte vermieden werden können", Bernd Musch-Borowska, tagesschau.de, April 11, 2010

Nicola Glass, an experienced German freelance journalist, said in an interview with Deutsche Welle that even if new elections are announced, the crisis is far from over.

Q: Would a dissolution of the parliament mean the end of the crisis in Thailand?

A: I don't think so that the crisis would end. Should parliament be really dissolved and new elections are called - which the red camp would very likely win - then we can be in for a déja-vu. Because then the opponents of the red shirts [the yellow shirted PAD] - like back in 2008 - would go on the streets and try to chase out a Thaksin-allied government.

"Die Krise ist noch lange nicht vorbei", DW-World.de, April 12, 2010

The weekly newspaper Die Zeit has a profile of the red shirts, written by Dr. Wolfram Schaffar from the University of Hildesheim discussing the origins, describing them as a grass root movement, but also...

But even if it appears so, the democratic consciousness does not always run deep at the red shirts. They skillfully play on populist motives: for example they attacked a gay-parade in Chiang Mai. And the donated blood and spilled it "for democracy" in front of government house. (...)

At last it is unclear, if the reds are able to set up a functioning government and if a return of Thaksin does any favor for the Thai democracy. (...) Nonetheless, their demand for new elections are neither hyperbolic or inequitable. The more the elites are hiding behind coups, politically motivated court decisions and military state of emergencies, the more they drive them to the reds.

"Aufruhr In Bangkok: Thailands Erste Opposition", by Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, Die Zeit, April 12, 2010

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung describes the sombre mood during the Thai New Year festivities (aka Songkran) in Bangkok, but somehow life goes on in the big capital.

Bangkok is very large. The pictures, that go around the world, are horrible. Fights, gunshots, deaths. But they are a small, albeit dramatic excerpt. The city is affected in two zones - that is tragic, but the rest is not directly affected. (...)

And the Thais? (...) at central places like Silom Road or the kilometers-long traffic vessel Sukhumvit people take it in a laid-back manner. They don't talk about it, at least not with the farangs, the westerners. They are more excited. Sure, there is a deep division running through Thailand, but they are more focussed to earn some money again, you often hear. And the taxi drivers are, as long as they speak English, more interested that Bayern Munich has beaten Manchester United than in the violent clashes. They simply avoid Ratchaprasong. They laugh.

(...) The traffic is less busy these days. It might be because of Songkran, since many are on vacation, it might be because of the tense situation. You won't get the answer from the Thais. They don't like to talk about uncomfortable things. If you ask them, they laugh nervously. "Don't know", they say. Those who do say something, think it looks more dramatic than it really it - typical Thai.

"Thailand: Es Wird Schon Gutgehen, Es Geht Immer Gut", by Hartmut U. Hallek, FAZ.net, April 14, 2010

Willi Germund writes a very critical editorial in the Frankfurter Rundschau and sees times in Thailand are changing.

Welcome to Thailand, the "country of smiles", where nothing will be like it has been in the last 60 years. (...)

The times where the province votes the government and Bangkok topples it, are slowly over. The rural people are demanding equality in the emerging Thailand, what the feudal aristocracy does not want to accept so far. The storm of the red shirts falls into a phase of the decline of the old regime.

"Analyse: Die Macht der Generäle", by Willi Germund, FR-Online.de, April 11, 2010

Germund has also mentioned a person who he thinks ordered the crackdown on Saturday. I will not name the person, but it's written in the second to last paragraph - you still can throw the article into Google translation to see the context it's written in. He did the same claim in the regional paper Badische Zeitung (sixth paragraph). Even though he says that Thai media have reported (indirectly) it, I cannot remember having read this anywhere. There's no way to verify his claim - or his credibility!

Foreign Minister Kasit Goes Berserk, Suspects Worldwide Pro-Thaksin Conspiracy UPDATE Audio posted

UPDATE: The John Hopkins University, where the talk was held, has posted the full audio of Kasit's speech. We haven't been talking about Thaksin for a while, have we? Well, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya thinks so as well and has used the next best opportunity in front of a microphone to lash out against Thaksin and everyone that helps him - which is in his opinion almost the whole world. AFP summarizes what must have been some astonishing quotes (to be enjoyed in all it's entirety for entertainment purposes).

Thailand's Foreign Minister lashed out at the international community Monday for failing to take action against fugitive ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, whom he blamed for the country's political unrest.

"Everyone is washing their hands but he is a bloody terrorist," said Kasit Piromya, citing countries such as Russia and Germany for turning a blind eye over Thaksin's corruption conviction and allowing him in.

He also cited Dubai, which the billionaire Thaksin had reportedly used as a longtime base after being overthrown in a military coup in 2006, as well as Nicaragua and Montenegro, both of which he recently visited.

"There is this act of interference by third countries -- how can the Russians allow him there for two days or the Germans before that?"

"Everyone is playing naive, closing their eyes and so on, simply because he was once an elected leader," Kasit said.

He likened Thaksin to an Al-Qaeda terrorist and past "elected" leaders such as Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin and Benito Mussolini.

"Hitler was elected, Mussolini was elected, even Stalin could say that he was elected also but what did they do to their very society? This is the question," the top Thai diplomat said at a meeting with a small group of reporters and think tank heads.

Kasit, in Washington attending a landmark nuclear summit called by President Barack Obama, accused Thaksin of orchestrating demonstrations by his so-called Red Shirt supporters last week that led to 21 deaths in the bloodiest political unrest in 18 years.

The 60-year-old Thaksin exiled himself to avoid imprisonment on a 2008 corruption conviction and occasionally addresses the Red Shirts through Internet video links.

Kasit lamented that Thailand was "not getting any international cooperation at all" over Thaksin's case, saying even Interpol "just simply refused to work with us." (...)

While the world demanded for more democracy in Thailand, it "allows Thaksin to run loose as if nothing happens," he said.

Kasit called on the Obama administration to prod the Red Shirts to come to the negotiating table. The United States and Thailand are treaty allies.

"Thai FM slams international community over crisis", AFP, April 13, 2010

Good Lord, where do I even start?

It is an open secret that the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs' unofficial top priority is to hunt down Thaksin wherever in the world he pops up. And since he seems to travel anywhere without any apparent problems, one might understand Kasit's outburst if (in his opinion) the one man who is solely to be blamed for a the big political mess that has happened in over the last five years cannot be apprehended and even seems to get international assistance.

I have previously blogged about Thaksin's stay in Germany and also mentioned his trip to Montenegro. Since then, Thaksin has claimed to have been in Russia as well. Additionally the Foreign Ministry has stated that he was in Sweden before that. But it should be noted that they got it wrong before when they suspected Thaksin to be expelled from UAE and to have flown to Siem Reap when the most recent red shirts protest begun.

It is astonishing how a branch of the government, or even a single person, can be so morbidly obsessed with one person desperately trying to hunt him down. So desperate that Kasit thinks he can afford to alienate nearly everybody.

As for the Hitler-Mussolini-Stalin-comparison and Kasit's claim that the most notorious figures in history were 'elected' into power, a simple look into Wikipedia might have saved him from this spectacular claim. Mussolini rose to power through intimidation of public authorities and political opponents with a large mob until he was appointed to lead the country by the king, Stalin was able to push out Lenin and later his own closest allies away from power, and even though Hitler's nazi party has won at the ballots, he was appointed Chancellor in hope by his coalition partners to be contained with a framework of conservative cabinet ministers - we all know how well that worked.

And how got Abhisit to power, again?

P.S.: Kasit also had some interesting quotes on another subject I will not discuss here.

No End in Sight - Some Personal Thoughts

Democracy Monument draped in red cloth (Picture courtesy of @Ohochita)

I was glued to my computer, scrambling through websites, Twitter messages and live streams, trying to get the latest updates on what is happening in Bangkok at the very moment. Reports of violent clashes, gunshots and absolute chaos were spreading from the capital. Next to my desk was the television set to the news channels, either struggling to give a clear overview of what is going on or (in case of German TV news) just blubbering sheer nonsense. To see this all unfolding from a very far distance in an office chair in Germany was utterly frustrating. This was in April 2009 during the Songkran riots.

Fast-forward to April 2010, same chair, same emotions.

Both sides, government forces and red shirt protesters, were showing hardly any sign of giving in. In fact, defiance on both sides was growing more and more each day. With each successful action of the red shirts, such as the storming on the parliament compound or at the satellite TV station, their confidence grew. In the beginning though it appeared the government had the upper hand, with their non-violence tactic catching the red shirt leaders off guard and thus leading them to pointless ad-hoc stunts (like the now infamous symbolic blood spilling). But with each day the red shirts were roaming and occupying the streets of Bangkok, the government was pushed with its back against the wall more and more.

All the more vigorous were the violent clashes on Saturday, killing 21 people and injuring over 850. There is no other way to describe the crackdown as a catastrophic failure. It was a chaotic mess, with soldiers and red shirts fighting each other, a mysterious 'third force' also contributing to the casualties and reporters, civilians and tourists caught in the crossfire - this was worse than last year! Last Saturday marks yet another dark moment in the recent history of this country.

What many like to neglect is that the red shirt movement is now more than just a proxy mob of Thaksin, not just a tool of anyone to overthrow the current government. It is a true unavoidable force in Thai politics with legitimate claims, with a sound political consciousness that is now haunting the political elites and bureaucrats for failing to recognize the sign of times. The problems cannot be solely linked back to Thaksin (as he is trying to promote himself as the beacon of freedom and democracy, while there is no doubt that he is not) - it is a collective failure!

When the situation was calming down in Bangkok and the first moments for me to cool down from the hours of constant information bombardment came by, I had not the feeling of horror or shock, but sheer frustration. Frustration about the inevitable fallout, about the at times idiotic coverage (or even the lack thereof) by some 'news programs' again, about the helplessness over the situation, but mostly about that we are not back to the status quo of four weeks ago - we are now even further away from it!

Both sides are even more defiant than before, even less unwilling to give in, even less likely are the chances for any peaceful, non-violent and political way to end this stalemate. To see Thailand going backwards each day with no end in sight is just discouraging - the distance from where I'm witness this happening does not make a difference anymore, it is equally frustrating.

Note: This commentary was written shortly during the aftermath of the violent clashes, which explains the more emotional tone of this article. That are, after all, my personal thoughts.

Government-Red Shirt Talks, Round 2

Screenshot by ThaiTVNews

The second round of negotiating talks between the government and their opposing red shirts have seen an increased amount of feisty words, but still lacking any breakthrough deal. Though some progress was there, as seen again for everyone on nationwide TV and radio.

Thailand's prime minister offered Monday to dissolve parliament by the end of the year, but protesters demanding he step down did not immediately accept the compromise, which could have helped resolve the country's political crisis.

(...) The Red Shirts are calling on Abhisit to take action within 15 days, but seemed to express some willingness to extend their deadline.

There were no agreements reached Monday, and even the question of further meetings was left in limbo.

"The negotiations with the government have come to an end. But just how we'd move on from here, I would have to discuss this with my people," Jatuporn told reporters afterward.

(...) Monday's meeting, which lasted two hours, began on a more combative note than Sunday's initial talks, with representatives of the two sides pointing fingers and interrupting each other.

"The current climate is marred with tension and violent tendencies," said Abhisit, in what appeared to be a reference to several unexplained nonfatal grenade attacks around Bangkok in recent days. "One of my concerns is that, as prime minister, I need to create a favorable climate for elections. I have to also consider the opinions of the greater public — who do not necessarily align with particular colors."

(...) Abhisit said he wanted time for his government to carry out such tasks as passing a new budget. But taking action at the end of the year would also allow him to oversee the annual reshuffle of the military, which often interferes in politics. (...)

"Thai PM offers to dissolve parliament by year end", The Associated Press, March 29, 2010

Initially on of the main argument points is if the constitutions has to be amended before, as the reds demanded, or after an election, which the government favors partly for the reasons stated above. It is up the to the red shirts now, whether they still want the government to dissolve now or accept a greater timeframe that could be the end of the year or a few months earlier as mentioned by the reds during the talks. The next (possible) meeting will be on Thursday as PM Abhisit is out of the country.

Full video of Tuesday's talks can be watched here.

Red March on Bangkok - Week Two Recap

It's been two weeks since the red shirts have been protesting in Bangkok and despite the noise there's still no end in sight, let alone a solution of the central problems they were protesting in the first place. The last seven days have been considerably quieter on the protest front, with numbers dwindling down to just a few thousands during the week - but it was expected by the protest leaders, as one of them said that the protesters, mostly from the distant provinces, were "rotating". Also the volume of the protests has decreased. After the still more than questionable blood stunt of last week the most notable act was a mass hair-cut of the protestors. As a side note, the government has extended the Internal Security Act for another seven days.

Another incident occurred on Wednesday, when parliament has been barricaded prior to a session. However, the fortification has backfired as MPs had to walk the rest of the way to parliament building and about 100 MPs of the opposition Puea Thai Party have boycotted and seized the opportunity to lament the barricade as a metaphor for the current political situation.

On Saturday the Red Shirts have originally planned a large motorcycle caravan roaming around the capital, but it has been cancelled the day before. The Nation has cited various reasons for the cancellation including:

A red-shirt source said the plan of marching had been opposed by several protest leaders, who agreed it would expose the red shirts to organised incidents by the government or a third party.

The source also said another march would cause severe traffic congestion at a time when there some important events were being held in Bangkok, such as the Inter-Parliamentary Union assembly and the National Book Fair, in addition to the entrance exam for high-school students.

The protest leaders yesterday also accused the government of assembling their supporters from communities in Bangkok to pressure the protesting red shirts.

"Red shirts call off plan for march today", The Nation, March 27, 2010

Instead, the Red Shirts were rallying to various spots in the city, mostly temples, in an effort to push out the military checkpoints stationed there. Nirmal Ghosh of the The Straits Times was at one of the locations and described the scene:

A truck with Red Shirt leaders Nattawut Saikuar and Dr Weng aboard, was parked directly in front of the gate. Nattawut was haranguing the soldiers but also offering them safe passage. A path had been cleared for the soldiers to leave, with the Reds’ black clad guards linking arms and keeping the mass of the crowd under control. But there was little tension, many were cheering and clapping. In the procession behind, trucks were belting out rousing Isan music and some were dancing. Big freshly minted white banners were printed with English and Thai slogans emphasising peace and non-violence.

A massive cheer went up when it was announced that the soldiers would leave. Peering through the gate I saw them loading their gear into trucks. Presently three trucks, one Humvee and one covered pickup lined up inside the gate, ready to roll. At around 1.30pm local time the gates were opened and the Humvee led the way out. The crowd was ecstatic. Some of the soldiers took pictures from the trucks.

"Thai version of people power?", by Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times, March 27, 2010

Similar scenes have been reported elsewhere. Encouraged by this small victory, the Red Shirts have gathered later in the evening in front of Government House also demand the soldiers to leave. Even though the situations looked a bit tense as it was unlikely at first that none of the two fractions would back down, the Red Shirts eventually decided not to pull a yellow shirt move and eventually retreated back to the main rally site at Pan Fah Bridge.

Unfortunately, there has been another bomb attack and it has claimed the most injured people since the beginning of the protest. Two grenades went off at two government-owned TV stations (Channel 5 and Channel 11) just within hours, eleven people (soldiers and civilians alike) have been injured. This is the latest in a series of grenade attacks throughout the past week. It is not (officially) known who threw these grenades, but it is very likely that a third party is involved here. For more on the grenade launcher attacks in recent times, Global Post's Patrick Winn has this background story.

Where are we now? By the looks of it there has been very little progress. Despite this, the most notable point is that the protests were peaceful! Neither the red shirts nor the government/military have provoked each other and have shown restraint and also respect. What might be a problem in my opinion is the  spirit of the red shirts. Yes, today's peaceful act with the military could be considered a victory. It is a very small one though, since not only the soldiers are now replaced by police forces, but also are they still far, far away from their central demands. PM Abhisit shows no sign of dissolving the house and calling for fresh elections. So, unless the red shirts are able to score a big victory - such as gaining more popular support from Bangkok residents - time is running out for them. But time could in the end be in the Red Shirt's favor as well, as both sides are certainly interested to move beyond the stalemate. The longer protest go on, the more likely a compromise is possible as Bangkok Pundit analyses:

(...) A journalist raised with Dr. Weng in a UDD presser on March 14 whether the red shirts would accept a promise by Abhisit in 3 months time and he said yes. BP doubts Abhisit (and *cough* the army *cough*) would accept the 3 month timeline, but what about a promise to dissolve within 6 months (decision is made at beginning of April) or by the end of the year? This would make it more difficult for both sides to reject. The reds want a dissolution now, but a promise to dissolve by the end of the year is more difficult for the reds to reject. The coalition partners don't want a dissolution now, but once the military reshuffle is resorted and another budget with the coalition partners getting their hands on more goodies to "hand" out. This would mean the Dems would have had about 2 years in office. They have a chance to see their policies implemented.

"What next for the red shirts and the government?", Bangkok Pundit, March 27, 2010

A new election would not solve the problems of the political crisis, as many of the issues are rooted much deeper, but it would be a step in the right direction if politics are not taken to the streets again - at least until the next time.

Further reading:

• Nick Nostitz (via New Mandala): Bangkok or bust, Part 1 (Great photo essay!)
• Khi Kwai: Thai-Style “Democracy,” 1958-2010
• Chang Noi (The Nation): Witness the death of deference
• Suthichai Yoon (The Nation): Yes to the red shirts' spirit; no to Thaksin
• Christian Science Monitor: Biased TV stations intensify divides in Thailand protests

Red March on Bangkok, Day 6 - "Peaceful Class War"

After another questionable display of blood spilling, this time at PM Abhisit's private house, and the decreasing number of attendance, there was still the looming question of what the next move of the anti-government protests would be. But more on that later. One of the major developments was the open split between the red shirt leaders and ex-communist insurgent Surachai Sae Dan and Major General Kattiya Sawasdiphon - better known as Seh Daeng. Seh Daeng is a colorful and well-known character in Thailand and he wasn't quiet today as well. In his usual vivid style he said:

เสธ.แดงกล่าวเพิ่มเติมว่า ที่ผ่านมา พวก 3 เกลอเคยพาเสื้อแดงทำอะไรประสบความสำเร็จบ้าง นำทัพแดงรบแพ้มา 2 ครั้ง ขณะที่ตนเป็นทหารที่รบชนะมาตลอด คอยช่วยเหลือเสื้อแดงอยู่ตลอด ดังนั้นแกนนำนปช.ควรจะถอยไป เหลือไว้เพียงนายณัฐวุฒิ ไสยเกื้อ และเปิดโอกาสให้นายอริสมันต์ พงษ์เรืองรอง นายสุพร อัตถาวงศ์ และนายขวัญชัย ไพรพณา ขึ้นมาเป็นผู้นำทัพคนใหม่

(Sae Daeng further criticizes: "In the past, what have the three leader of the Red Shirts achieved? They have led the Red Army and lost twice. On the contrary, I - the soldier - have always won and was always loyal to the Red Shirts. Thus the UDD leaders should step aside with the exception of Natthawut Saigua and make space for Arisaman Pongruengrong, Suporn Atthawong and Kwanchai Praiphana to be the new leaders.")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

The last three names that Sae Daeng mentioned are known hardliners within the movement.

About the blood stunt he said:

"ไม่รู้แกนนำเอาตำราพิชัยสงครามเล่มไหนมาใช้ เพราะปกติเขาจะกรีดเลือดเฉพาะผู้นำทัพ แต่นี่กลับมาเจาะเลือดลูกทัพ ทำให้เสียมวลชนที่เป็นสตรีและเด็กจำนวนมาก กลุ่ม 3 เกลอรู้ดีว่าสู้ไม่ได้เลยโกรธ จึงโยนความผิดให้และด่าว่าตนทำให้แพ้ (...)"

(I don't know what battle manual they have read, because normally you the take blood of the leaders. But here they take the blood of the supporters, which drives the women and children away in large numbers. The three leaders know that they cannot fight, so they're angry and are blaming me for their defeat! (...)")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

Meanwhile one of the current red shirt leaders had this to say:

Veera Musigapong announced on the stage at Phan Fah Bridge that the two had looked down on the red-shirt people by crticising the peaceful measures of the red-shirt leaders so the movement or Red in Land decided to cut tie with the two.

"Red in Land officially severs tie with Khattiya, Surachai" The Nation, March 17, 2010

There was certainly frustration within the movement that nothing substantial has come out of the last days and it was a matter of time when the first rifts will openly appear.

Suthichai Yoon of The Nation doesn't really quite believe the split:

But cynics say that this "break-up" may be a facade -- so that some violent acts could be carried out without the mainstream Red Shirts may being directly blamed for them.

We shall see whether this "split" is for real.

"Its official: The Reds are split...but is it for real?", by Suthichai Yoon, The Nation Blog, March 17, 2010

One cynic here thinks that he meant himself with "but cynics say...", just sayin'...

In the evening we got to know about the next (and may be final) act: they have declared a "peaceful class war" and will be rallying around Bangkok on Saturday. While this can be one last defiant move of the protests, we have to see if they can maintain a fighting mood until the weekend and I'm still not convinced that they will be able to woo in undecided Bangkokians to join the rally.

Further reading:

• Absolutely Bangkok: Red & Abandoned
• Patrick Winn (Global Post): Thailand: Bangkok blood curse
• Inter Press Service: With Blood Spilt, Political Wounds Far from Healed
• New York Times: Thai Protests Continue, but Scale Is Diminishing
• Not The Nation: Red Shirts Demand Cookies, Juice, A Place To Lie Down (Satire!)

Red March on Bangkok, Day 4 - Blood Loss (UPDATED)

"Tired #redshirt sleeps on the pavement in #Bangkok" by @alohalavina

On the forth day of the anti-government protests Prime Minister Abhisit has unsurprisingly dismissed the demand to dissolve parliament and therefore the red shirts (a part of them), after the deadline expired at noon on Monday, marched to the 11th Infranty Regiment - the Prime Minister's safe house and the government's situation room. Al Jazeera English reported from the scene.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI23Kar9zy4&w=600&h=360] Video: "Thailand caught in protest standoff", Al Jazeera English, March 15, 2010. Via YouTube

UPDATE: Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan of The Nation have described the scene and the deescalation tactics used by the military:

They spoke partly in northeastern dialect to the red visitors, teased them nicely and reminded them that they were confronting their own children who were only performing their duty yet would allow them to exercise their democratic right in an appropriate scope.

The military orators were aided by a powerful sound system that at one point jarred the nerves of red leader Veera Musigapong so much that he sarcastically vowed to drop the House dissolution demand if they would just drop the volume.

The friendly greetings - beginning with "Let us hear your voice. Let us hear your clappers." - caught the pro-testers off-guard and further limited their options. The red shirts had won praise for being peaceful and orderly and that reputation restricted what they could do in front of the sprawling Army compound.

"Army speakers win the day" by Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan, The Nation, March 15, 2010

After the usual rant by the red shirt leaders against the government and other powerful key figures, the question everybody asked was: "And now what?" This:

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) core leader Natthawut Saikua has announced that he will take one thousand liters of blood donated by protesters and spill it around Government House on Tuesday, in retaliation for the government's decision not to dissolve the House.

The drawing of blood will begin about 8am on Tuesday, Mr Natthawut said. A total of one million cubic centimetres (cc) would be taken from 100,000 volunteers, including protest leaders.

This would be a symbolic action. Cabinet ministers would have to walk over the protesters' blood when they enter Government House to work, he said.

If the government still refused to dissolve the House, then another million cc's of blood would be scattered outside the Democrat Party headquarters. The third target would Mr Abhisit's house, he said.

"UDD next move: Scatter blood", Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

Really?! That's their plan? So far, the fact the protests have been peaceful and no bigger problems (or even violence) have occurred can be counted as a success and confident boost for the red shirts. But now they risk to lose all the momentum for this more than questionable stunt. First, there is the logistic problem: how on earth are they going to get enough blood of 100,000 people in just one night?

Secondly is a medical one: how are they going to get enough clean needles? The Thai Red Cross has refused to help, pointing out medical consequences of improper use. Channel 3 has reported that an unnamed hospital will support the Red Shirts with the stunt, but so far no other news sources did.

And finally the question is: what do they want to achieve with this? Unless they want to deliberately create a big hygienic mess I don't see anything being solved here! It all appears to me a rather impulsive stunt as they failed with the protest at the 11th Infranty Regiment. Even if the red shirts do pull it off, the this campaign of the movement is slowly bleeding out.

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At the same time when the red shirts protested at the military base, another base was attacked with six shots from a M79 grenade launcher. The 1st Infantry Regiment compound houses Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. Even though suspects were questioned by the police (and later released), so far there was no connection to the Red Shirts. This incident is yet another one in a string of attacks involving a M79 grenade launcher and also not the first one against General Anupong.

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In other news, the question of Thaksin's current whereabouts might be answered:

Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, on the run from corruption charges, was spotted in the Montenegrin town of Budva this weekend, a local TV station reported Monday.

Thaksin was seen in coastal Budva's medieval old town on Sunday, enjoying coffee and cakes in one of the area's posh hotel with his entourage, TV Vijesti reported, quoting witnesses.

"Deposed Thai premier spotted in Montenegro: Report", Associated Press via Vancouver Sun, March 15, 2010

As I correctly predicted on Saturday, Thaksin could only be in a non-EU country and given his connections, Montenegro sounds plausible.

Note: Special thanks to @alohalavina for giving me permission to post that picture. Go to her Twitter profile for more photos of today's event!

Further reading:

• Patrick Winn (Global Post): A Game of Chicken
• Absolutely Bangkok: Reds Fizzle Out After Marching To Govt's Tune
• Richard Barrow: Samut Prakan Red March to Bangkok
• Thanyarat Doksone (Associated Press): Thai PM rejects protesters' call for new elections
• Newley Purnell: Red shirt protests: images from Sun. and Mon.
• Greg Jorgensen: Some Thoughts on the Red Shirts

Red March on Bangkok, Day 3 - "Dissolve Parliament or else...!"

The anti-government protests by the Red Shirts has gone into its critical phase as the number of attendance has peaked, but no exact number can be given, because simply everyone is claiming something else.

A total of 46,377 people took part in the mass rally organised by the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) in Bangkok, the Ministry of Interior reported on Sunday evening.

Foreign media estimated the crowds early on Sunday at over 100,000. The Associated Press quoted Pol Gen Wichai Sangprapai, commander in the main protest area, as saying he expected the number to reach 150,000 or more by Sunday evening.

"Dispute begins over rally numbers", Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

As many as 600,000 members of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship reached Bangkok late today, said Weng Tojirakarn, a protest leader. (...)

Abhisit said 100,000 protesters joined the rally last night, a number he said didn’t exceed a similar protest against him last April that turned violent. About 50,000 people turned up today, Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said.

“We are very satisfied with the turnout,” said Weng, one of the protest leaders. “It’s more people than last April. To say we have only 50,000 is ridiculous.”

"Thai Protesters Mass to Oust Premier, Pledge Marches", by Daniel Ten Kate and Anuchit Nguyen, Bloomberg.com, March 14, 2010

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As blogged yesterday, there has been the rumor that the government was considering to enforce a state of emergency. This has been quickly denied in the early hours of today and Prime Minister Abhisit said that such case would happen depending on "necessity and urgency only". It seems that the authorities are playing cool, for now. The fact that they have not declared Monday a public holiday, in order to ease off to prevent a traffic breakdown with the daily commuters, also underlines this.

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This weekend only marks the beginning of a longer protest by the Red Shirts as they say that the next few days are the most crucial. The most significant development today was their ultimatum to Abhisit to dissolve Parliament with 24 hours or else they'd storm he 11th Infantry Regiment - the government's "war room" and safe house. The deadline is 12 PM on Monday and with Abhisit very unlikely to act according to their wishes, it will be very interesting how to will unfold tomorrow to say the least.

Here's what the two English dailies in Thailand The Nation and Bangkok Post are saying plus an analysis by the British Times Online (emphasis all mine).

Today's noon deadline for the movement's House dissolution ultimatum will pass, forcing the red shirts to decide what to do next. The movement has announced a plan to besiege the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters, but the real question is what they are prepared to do afterwards. (...)

As for the government, the military has been firmly on its side. One little worry has to do with what game the coalition partners are playing. News reports suggested the allies are not ready to jump ship, at least for now. If the solidarity is confirmed, this will leave the red shirts with two increasingly implausible scenarios of victory: An upheaval of 500,000 people or a bloody turmoil that somehow enables a pro-Thaksin coup to succeed.

"Govt putting the ball in Reds' court", by Tulsathit Taptim, The Nation, March 15, 2010

The UDD's lack of a strong or decisive response to Mr Abhisits anticipated rejection to their call for House dissolution indicates that their much publicised final showdown to topple the government still lacks the knockout punch. The one-million protesters expected by the UDD has not been achieved and remains a pipe dream.  Without that magic figure to tip the balance in their favour,  it is doubtful the UDD will be able to overthrow the government. (...)

Both the UDD and the government have been trying their best to avoid the label of villains for being the first to start violence. The longer the protest drags on, the more likely that one side, or both, will lose patience.

Despite the bluffs and counter-bluffs of both sides, Sunday's peaceful mass protest is a healthy sign that should prevail throughout the duration of the protest.

"Still cool... for now", by Veera Prateepchaikul, Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

If the demonstrators can paralyse Bangkok, or provoke the Government into a crude crackdown, Mr Abhisit will be the loser; if he can contain the protest, and reduce it to no more than a noisy nuisance, then he will come out the stronger.

The likeliest outcome is a messy, inconclusive stalemate in which neither side lands a knockout blow, and the loser is Thailand itself – its credibility among foreign investors, its tourist industry, and its once powerful sense of national unity.

"Analysis: who will blink first in Bangkok?", by Richard Lloyd Parry, Times Online, March 14, 2010

Further reading:

• PaknamPhotos.com: Red Shirt March to Bangkok เสื้อแดงสมุทรปราการเดินเท้าเข้ากรุงเทพฯ (600 (!) pictures of the Red Shirts' march from Samut Prakan to Bangkok)
• Bangkok Pundit: Foreign Media round-up of the red shirts entering Bangkok

Red March on Bangkok, Day 2 - State of Emergency Imminent?

After a slow start yesterday, today's descend of the anti-government red shirts into Bangkok was significantly larger. The Nation estimates at least 100,000 protestors have gathered along Rajdamnoen Avenue and have described the scene as this:

Makeshift toilets were being installed by the red shirts to supplement those provided by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, and many food stalls quickly sprang up.

As night fell some traded stories, while others went to listen to the main stage's speakers on Phan Fah Bridge, which became a sea of red shirts.

"Rajdamnoen a sea of red as protesters set up camp" by Pravit Rojanaphruk, The Nation, March 13, 2010

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During Friday afternoon The Nation (among others) have posted a video which they have captioned in a mildly cocky manner with "Look what's going on in Nakhon Phanom as local red shirts are preparing to leave for Bangkok to join the mass rallies on Sunday.".

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afmrFcGHIIU&w=600&h=360]Video: YouTube via Prachatai.com

It shows red shirts in Nakhon Phanom receiving money. Even though it is probably for fuel expenses, as one local red shirt leader stated, some would immediately jump to the conclusion that the protestors were actually hired. Prachatai has more.

----------------------------------------

Meanwhile, after I blogged yesterday that Thaksin tweeted he was on his way to Europe, the former PM again stated this during a short phone-in to his supporter at the main rally site. Here's a video of the phone-in, the reference on his whereabouts begins at the 10 minute mark.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uP6U60BPH8&feature=player_embedded&w=600&h=360]Video by ThaiTVNews.blogspot.com, watch the second part here.

"My dear people, there have been news spread that I'm supposed to be in Cambodia. I'm in Europe! I'm here to meet my children, who were attending a trade show in Germany so we're going to meet in Europe. It is not true that I would be in Cambodia, because I don't want tarnish the relationships between the two countries. What is for granted is that wherever I am, I can call in. Wherever I am I can video-link to you. (...) So stop with that lie!"

(Translation by me)

Thaksin further denies that he was expelled from UAE by saying that he would be asked by some countries not to enter because simply "they were fed up with the whining of the Thai government!". It is still not clear which European country Thaksin currently is, while it is impossible that countries like Germany and the UK would welcome him since they revoked his visa. The Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Panich Vikitsreth claimed yesterday that he was on his way to Switzerland. But then again, the Foreign Ministry was also yesterday. May be Montenegro?

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In the late hours of the evening The Nation (again, I know) has reported that a source say that the government is considering to enforce a state of emergency.

The government will likely enforce a state-of-emergency decree today to cope with the escalating security problem in Bangkok after tens of thousands of provincial protesters arrived in the city yesterday.

A state of emergency, which would be on top on the current implementation of the Internal Security Act (ISA), would empower the military to fully take charge of the situation. (...)

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is expected to hold an emergency Cabinet meeting before the emergency decree is used, according to a senior government source.

Red shirts rallying for "democracy" yesterday threatened a mass march on Abhisit's hold-out if he does not dissolve the House of Representatives by noon today. (...)

Jatuporn Promphan, a key leader of the anti-government movement, said that at this stage they had no plan to march to Government House, Parliament House or the house of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda.

"Govt likely to enforce state of emergency on top of ISA", The Nation, March 14, 2010

Honestly, it doesn't make much sense to me at this point. Firstly, there is only one source and I haven't read this anywhere else. Secondly, I see no real justification to call in the military other than pre-emptively strike against the red shirts. We'll have to see. By the time of writing this blog post (6 AM Bangkok time), nothing has been stated by the government yet.

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For Sunday's coverage of the red shirts protests, I recommend you to follow these people on Twitter: @thaicam, @_willowtree_, @RobinThailand, @tri26 and @newley will be reporting all from the scene at Radjadamnoen Avenue, Patrick Winn (@BKKApologist) and @RichardBarrow have announced that they will be embedded with red shirts coming by boat from Ayutthaya and by car from Samut Prakan, respectively. As usual due to time difference, I'll chime in during the afternoon Bangkok time (@Saksith).

Red March in Bangkok, Day 1 / Thaksin: "I'll travel to Europe tomorrow!"

Today marked the start of the protest weekend by the anti-government red shirts in Bangkok and according to reports, blogs and twitteres on the scene it has been, compared to the hype and the fear-mongering prior to this day, rather quiet on the streets. Even though many places of the capital were less busy than usual (even the big, always crowded MBK mall was nearly empty), no bigger inconvenience or unrest was reported and the turnout was just shy of a few hundreds at each rally point in the city, according to what The Nation's Tulsathit Taptim tweeted. Apart from an incident in Pathum Thani, it has been peaceful. So far this is not too surprising as the red shirts just started gathering in their respective provinces and then head to Bangkok. This shifts the focus on the next two days, when they are expected to arrive. ------------------------

Late afternoon reports came in that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has left, or even expelled, from his exile in Dubai, UAE and was on his way to Siem Reap, Cambodia - which the Foreign Ministry has confirmed! But then during the night Thaksin wrote this on his Twitter feed...

มีข่าวว่าผมถูกขับออกจากUAEไปอยู่ที่เสียมเรียบ ขอโทษทีไม่จริงนะครับผมยังอยู่ท่ีดูไบพรุ่งนี้จะเดินทางไปยุโรปพบกับลูกสาวทั้งสองคนซึ่งดูงานเสร็จ

There have been news that I was asked to leave UAE and flew to Siam Reap. I'm sorry to say that it's not true. I'm still in Dubai and tomorrow I will head to Europe to visit my two daughters, who just went to a trade show.

Thaksin Shinawatra on Twitter (@ThaksinLive), March 13, 2010 - Translation and emphasis by me

Thaksin's daughters are reported to be in Germany right now, where they'll visit "an exhibition and trade fair hotels in Germany". Currently, the International Travel Trade Show in Berlin is underway.

But, is it very likely that Thaksin will travel to Europe and being permitted access to Germany, again?

Further reading:

• Newley Purnell: Red shirt protests in Bangkok: day one
• Absolutely Bangkok: Red Letdown
• Bangkok Pundit: Media reports on the red shirts
• ThaiTVNews: ข่าว เสื้อแดง 12.03.2010 (Video clips of today's TV news)

Supreme Court Seize 46 Billion Baht of Thaksin's Assests

After nearly seven hours this is the verdict:

Thailand's Supreme Court has ruled that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's family should be stripped of more than half a contested $2.3bn fortune.

The court said $1.4bn (£910m) of the assets were gained illegally through conflict of interest when Mr Thaksin was prime minister.

The funds were frozen after Mr Thaksin's elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

The Supreme Court said "to seize all the money would be unfair since some of it was made before Thaksin became prime minister".

The court took several hours to deliver its verdict, with security forces on high alert amid government predictions of violence by Mr Thaksin's red-shirted supporters if the court decision went against him.

The judges said that Mr Thaksin shaped government mobile phone and satellite communications policy to benefit his firms.

He abused his power to benefit telecoms company Shin Corp, which he owned then, earning wealth from shares sales in the company through "inappropriate means", they ruled.

("Thailand top court seizes part of Thaksin fortune", BBC News, Feb 26, 2010)

My initial thoughts are that the court would seize Thaksin's money no matter what, it was rather a question how much will be seized. A shock decision to take everything away from him has not occurred, which would have created a much stronger reactions by the red shirts.

While the court has found that all inquiry was legal, we can not forget that the legal basis is a direct effect after the coup.

So far, it appears to be quiet in Bangkok and other places where the red shirts have gathered, TV footage show them in a rather defeated, sad mood than in an angry one. A much composed Thaksin has held a statement after the verdict, dressed in a black suit, thanking his supporters and urged them not to protest or cause any troubles.

I'm not sure if you can call a winner or a loser in this case (shades of grey exit everywhere) or if it is a decision that will make everybody happy or not. I think after today's events, the situation will cool down for quite a bit until March, when the red shirts will hold their mass rally.

Additional reading:

• Newley Purnell: Thaksin asset ruling: Images from Thailand’s Supreme Court today
• Absolutely Bangkok: Golden Verdict
• Bangkok Pundit: Thaksin on the asset seizure case
• Not The Nation: Supreme Court Judge Adds Entire Unpublished Screenplay To 900-Page Verdict (satire alert!)

What will happen on Feburary 26, 2010?

The Supreme Court will give it's verdict this Friday on whether or not, partially or entirely, to seize 76 billion baht ($2.3 billion) of frozen assets which belongs to Thaksin Shinawatra. Meanwhile, hundreds of extra security forces have been deployed in Bangkok including military personnel to support the police. The Red Shirts have also gathered, albeit not in the highest numbers, in the capital eagerly awaiting the verdict. These are the facts. Beyond that is an atmosphere of tense anticipation prior to the verdict and both sides of the spectrum have not really done their best to calm the mood down. In fact, the PM Abhisit's personal spokesperson Theptai Saenpong has spoken about "10 days of danger":

กลุ่มคนเสื้อแดง ว่า จากการวิเคราะห์สถานการณ์เห็นว่า ในช่วงเวลา 10 วันอันตราย จะเป็นเรื่องที่มีความเป็นไปได้สูง ว่าจะเกิดความรุนแรง

Thepthai as stating in reference to the red shirts and from analysis of the situation that in the 10 days of danger that it was likely that there would be violence.

("ปชป.เผย'10สถานที่เสี่ยง'รุนแรง10วันอันตราย", Kom Chad Luek, Feb 19, 2010 - link and translation via Bangkok Pundit, emphasis mine)

Frederico Ferrara, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, was more direct about the government's stance at a recent panel discussion:

But key government figures have done their part to ratchet up fear of the Red Shirts.

"It seems like there are people on both sides who are intent on precipitating this to some extent; each has its own calculations. The government’s posture in this regard is not encouraging at all", Professor Ferrara said at the FCCT.

"The scaremongering and the demonization of the opposition that you hear every day in the papers; the mysterious grenade attacks; it seems like from the old playbook."

"This is stuff that’s been happening here for 35 years. You rile up the population that are kind of neutral, you scare them to such an extent that when something does happen, when the regime really does crack down, when perhaps the army does take over, they are seen as the ones who are restoring order and protecting the unity of the nation, not the ones who are undermining the order and the unity of the nation as they have for the last 35 years."

It is a cat and mouse game, with bluff and counter-bluff, and nobody quite knows how the chips will fall.

("Cat and Mouse in Thailand", by Nirmal Ghosh, Feb 21, 2010)

And thus the Thai media has picked up on the theme of intimidation. Newspapers have billed February 26th as "Judgment Day", as if some eagerly await something to happen.

The government meanwhile, after the Songkran riots of April 2009, are not taking any chances and have beefed up the security considerably.

The Red Shirts on the other side are determined to make a stand, but red isn't automatically red:

At the same time there appears to be many "shades of red" within the red camp. There is a faction of the "loyal" reds who are doing everything due to their love for and loyalty to Thaksin and Thaksin alone.

There are people who have become "red" because they feel the injustice that prevails in Thai society and would like to push for change in a peaceful and democratic manner.

And there is the "hardcore" militant red ready to unleash violence on its enemies, whether out of personal vendetta or the belief that only force will bring the necessary change.

Strategically, the reds will press on to demonstrate that Thais live under a "double standard" system where the elite and aristocrats, the so-called amartya, with military backing and the Democrat Party as a political front, continue to exploit and take advantage of the majority of people.

("Talking Points Before Final Showdown", by Suranand Vejjajiva, Bangkok Post, Feb 19, 2010)

Regardless of the outcome, this will not be largest turnout by reds, as they announced their mass rally with "millions of supporters" will take place on March 12, 2010.

I will not address many key issues here as there have been examined better by others like where Thaksin's money comes from, if there is a legal precedent and what the some (secretly) hope to achieve with a full seizure. I also will not discuss the possible outcome(s) of the verdict.

Nevertheless, it is apparent that this is a landmark case in Thailand and the anticipation on this Friday shows that it more than just about the money and Thaksin - the country is still very divided and still very far from the much proposed national reconciliation. We will have to wait and see where Thailand is heading at the end of the day.

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To keep up with the latest on this topic, I recommend to follow these people on Twitter: @Newley, @bangkokpundit, @TAN_Network, @tulsathit (of course I might have forgot a few dozen). I also, time difference permitting, probably will give my take via Twitter (@Saksith) later.

"Thailand: Warring Colours" - A Beginner's Guide to the Thai Political Crisis

In December 2009 Al Jazeera English have aired a 45-minute long documentary "Thailand: Warring Colours" about the ongoing political crisis. I think it does a good job summarizing the key moments and issues that are plaguing the country for years. Some newsmakers like Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva and well, you-know-who are being interviewed as well as activists from both colors and many other voices. This is a beginner's guide for understanding the current political situation. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2Gmt7dvOWs&w=600&h=360]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLLSE-VFe4&w=600&h=360]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JmCjwZQHJk&w=600&h=360]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b24xix2bxaI&w=600&h=360]

For a comparison, here's my take summarizing the issue back in September 2009 on the third anniversary of the military coup of 2006 in a webcast when I was working with Asia News Network.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgOBRHum800&w=600&h=360]

How Thaksin Got Into Germany

Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been at a lot of places. Be it in Cambodia (twice), Uganda, Montenegro, Dubai, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea and many more - the man has allocated a lot of mileage. And for good reason. Since he was toppled in a military coup in 2006, he made a brief return to Thailand in 2008 before he and his (now-divorced) wife Pojaman jumped bail (they did not come back after they attended the Olympic opening ceremony in Beijing. Who let them leave the country in the first place?) after a court sentenced them to three years in prison because Thaksin abused his power to help his then-wife to buy public land. They returned to London, where the Shinawatras have already fled to after the 2006 coup, but soon after the British authorities have revoked his UK visa. What then followed was the involuntarily world tour for a new asylum to the aforementioned places (and many more), somewhat reminiscent of a former children television game show.

One of the places he went to was Germany in late 2008. Half a year later the Munich-based daily newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported how and why Thaksin was able to fly into Germany and even got a residence permit. Since the original article is in German, I translated and emphasized the key parts.

(...) The probably most known and presumably richest fugitive refugee in Asia, who has more than half a dozen of criminal cases against him, was on that December 29 in Oxfordstrasse No. 19 in Bonn - in the municipal alien department. He applied for a residence permit for the duration of one year.

Previously he was at the [resident‘s] registration office and has enrolled an address in Bad Godesberg as his residence. Billionaire Thaksin was able to account for his own livelihood, not a welfare case then, and also had insurance. The person in charge also took a look in the central register for foreigners but found nothing [suspicious].

All foreigners in Germany have to report to the local authorities. This is handled by municipal authorities unlike other countries. Also, Bad Godesberg is the location of the former private residence of the Royal Thai Embassy when Bonn was capital of West Germany.

The approval procedure was eased because of the company of the former head of the criminal investigation department [Kriminalpolizei (Kripo) an agency within state police authorities] Gerd Steffen as well as a distinguished lawyer. In addition was a mysterious man, who introduced himself by the name Richard Nelson. The person in charge understood that he [Nelson] was working for the Federal Intelligence Service [Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), the foreign intelligence agency], but he must have misheard. The agent would never said that, who is in fact named Werner Mauss and once a universal weapon of the German [intelligence] agencies. In the end, Thaksin was granted a permit.

The curios encounter in office [Amt] 33-6 has caused a stir behind the [political] scenes in Berlin, Düsseldorf [state capital of Nord Rhine-Westphalia] and Bangkok. The Federal Foreign Office [Auswärtiges Amt], which learned late of the procedure, was furious and saw the relationships with Thailand in danger; the Chancellor‘s Office [Bundeskanzleramt] and the Nord Rhine-Westphalia State Ministry of the Interior were informed.

The Federal Foreign Office thought for the time being, the BND has acted on their own and protested heavily. Didn‘t the BND used to 'pretty up' Thaksin‘s role in confidential reports for the federal government? However, the top heads of the BND assume that an agent from a foreign agency has 'sailed in under a different flag', as insiders say. But then the officers heard the name [Richard] Nelson and knew right away what happen: [Richard] Nelson is one of many aliases the now 69-year-old private investigator Mauss used in his past assignments for authorities and agencies. In his life, he was on many assignments, of which the backgrounds remain mysterious.

(...) [Werner] Mauss, formerly known as „man without face“, has received decades ago visitors incognito at the local police headquarters in presence of the head of the criminal investigation department. (...)

According to his Wikipedia page (only in German), Werner Mauss started as a private investigator but also worked as an agent for German companies and as a contact person for German intelligence services, through which he maintained contacts to high-ranking personnel inside the Chancellor's Office. He was involved with the arrest on a left-wing terrorist Rolf Pohle in the 1970s, negotiated the release of German hostage from the Hezbollah and was also connected to the both infamous and mysterious death of German politician Uwe Barschel.

An old acquaintance of him [Nelson/Mauss] was involved in this act: the former State Secretary and former MP Rudolf Kraus of the CSU party [Christlich Soziale Union, the Bavarian Christian-conservative sister-party to the nationwide CDU]. In a letter to the municipal alien department in Bonn he notified, MPs of the CDU/CSU party absolutely want to meet Thaksin this summer 2009 in Germany and thus he [Thaksin] needed a residence permit. (...) „Thaksin is a highly interesting personality“, he continued. Did Mauss [alias Nelson] pressured him [Kraus] to write the letter? „Let‘s drop it“, said Kraus [upon further questions]. (...)

This is the most puzzling part for me. Why were these German MPs so eager to meet Thaksin? Who were these MPs? And what would have the topic of the meeting been?

On pressure by Berlin and Düsseldorf the residence permit for Thaksin has been revoked on May 28.

Let's recap here: Thaksin was able to enter Germany and had zero problems obtaining a residence permit thanks to some shadowy friends, who shielded him away from the federal government and also the Thai Embassy in Berlin (which learned from his stay through said newspaper article, but mistakenly assumed Thaksin would be still in Germany by that time as a contact has told me.)! Not only does this sound like it could have been torn from a crime novel, but also the time it took until the public would know about it is astonishing. That said, some might have noticed his stay in Germany already earlier than June 2009, because in April 2009 Thaksin himself said in an interview with the French daily Le Figaro that:

[Thaksin passed his time away from Thailand] with business in Dubai, Hong Kong, Africa and Germany - a country which has given him a residency card, he said.

The mystery of his whereabouts held on for a few more months since then, even with the Thai authorities claiming to know his silly incognito name. Sometimes Thaksin and the hunt for him really appears like that former children television game show.