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Red March in Bangkok, Day 1 / Thaksin: "I'll travel to Europe tomorrow!"

Today marked the start of the protest weekend by the anti-government red shirts in Bangkok and according to reports, blogs and twitteres on the scene it has been, compared to the hype and the fear-mongering prior to this day, rather quiet on the streets. Even though many places of the capital were less busy than usual (even the big, always crowded MBK mall was nearly empty), no bigger inconvenience or unrest was reported and the turnout was just shy of a few hundreds at each rally point in the city, according to what The Nation's Tulsathit Taptim tweeted. Apart from an incident in Pathum Thani, it has been peaceful. So far this is not too surprising as the red shirts just started gathering in their respective provinces and then head to Bangkok. This shifts the focus on the next two days, when they are expected to arrive. ------------------------

Late afternoon reports came in that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has left, or even expelled, from his exile in Dubai, UAE and was on his way to Siem Reap, Cambodia - which the Foreign Ministry has confirmed! But then during the night Thaksin wrote this on his Twitter feed...

มีข่าวว่าผมถูกขับออกจากUAEไปอยู่ที่เสียมเรียบ ขอโทษทีไม่จริงนะครับผมยังอยู่ท่ีดูไบพรุ่งนี้จะเดินทางไปยุโรปพบกับลูกสาวทั้งสองคนซึ่งดูงานเสร็จ

There have been news that I was asked to leave UAE and flew to Siam Reap. I'm sorry to say that it's not true. I'm still in Dubai and tomorrow I will head to Europe to visit my two daughters, who just went to a trade show.

Thaksin Shinawatra on Twitter (@ThaksinLive), March 13, 2010 - Translation and emphasis by me

Thaksin's daughters are reported to be in Germany right now, where they'll visit "an exhibition and trade fair hotels in Germany". Currently, the International Travel Trade Show in Berlin is underway.

But, is it very likely that Thaksin will travel to Europe and being permitted access to Germany, again?

Further reading:

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Red March in Bangkok

This Friday marks yet another chapter in the seemingly unending political crisis in Thailand as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship have called their supporters to flock to Bangkok for a mass rally and yet again, they are calling for Prime Minister Abhisit to dissolve parliament. What is different this time is the anticipation on all sides. On one hand, the red shirts are boasting that a million people will come to the capital. It can be said for certain that this high number is more an aim rather than the real turnout will be. If they are lucky, they can manage to mobilize more than 100,000 protesters. In a press conference by the UDD earlier this months they proclaim that the movement has grown and are also confident that even the middle class of Bangkok, for the most part yellow, will join them. For the rest of UDD's press conference and analysis, AbsolutelyBangkok has written a report on it.

On the other the government is trying to cope with the large wave of red shirts. Besides invoking the Internal Security Act, military checkpoints have been set up at the outskirts and many other measures (e.g. pick-ups with non-BKK licenses cannot enter Bangkok) were made to either control or in some cases to restrict the protesters entering the capital. But the overall crisis management has been schizophrenic. The blog Thailand Crisis has pretty much nailed it as it's headline reads: "After contributing to panic, Abhisit calls for people not to panic"

I will not delve into the issues surrounding the protests (see below for further reading), but what I want to address is the anticipation to the upcoming events. Even though both sides have pledged not to use any violence against anybody, there is a tense mood among the residents of Bangkok. Clearly, the both fractions have failed to keep the mood calm. What is also clear is that nobody want to have a repeat of the Songkran riots of last year. While we all hope that they're will be no violence unfortunately - as we have seen several times already in Thai politics - nothing is for certain and nobody can be regarded as fully sincere. But all fractions also know that if they cause unrest and violence, the other side would gain space in their respective argument or as The Nation's editor Tulsathit Taptim has noted:

Apparently, it'll be a matter of who blinks first. If Govt fires first, it'll lose. If reds throw Molotov cocktails first, they'll lose.

Tulsathit Taptim on Twitter

Further reading:

Also, follow me on Twitter for updates on the events.

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Supreme Court Seize 46 Billion Baht of Thaksin's Assests

After nearly seven hours this is the verdict:

Thailand's Supreme Court has ruled that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's family should be stripped of more than half a contested $2.3bn fortune.

The court said $1.4bn (£910m) of the assets were gained illegally through conflict of interest when Mr Thaksin was prime minister.

The funds were frozen after Mr Thaksin's elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

The Supreme Court said "to seize all the money would be unfair since some of it was made before Thaksin became prime minister".

The court took several hours to deliver its verdict, with security forces on high alert amid government predictions of violence by Mr Thaksin's red-shirted supporters if the court decision went against him.

The judges said that Mr Thaksin shaped government mobile phone and satellite communications policy to benefit his firms.

He abused his power to benefit telecoms company Shin Corp, which he owned then, earning wealth from shares sales in the company through "inappropriate means", they ruled.

("Thailand top court seizes part of Thaksin fortune", BBC News, Feb 26, 2010)

My initial thoughts are that the court would seize Thaksin's money no matter what, it was rather a question how much will be seized. A shock decision to take everything away from him has not occurred, which would have created a much stronger reactions by the red shirts.

While the court has found that all inquiry was legal, we can not forget that the legal basis is a direct effect after the coup.

So far, it appears to be quiet in Bangkok and other places where the red shirts have gathered, TV footage show them in a rather defeated, sad mood than in an angry one. A much composed Thaksin has held a statement after the verdict, dressed in a black suit, thanking his supporters and urged them not to protest or cause any troubles.

I'm not sure if you can call a winner or a loser in this case (shades of grey exit everywhere) or if it is a decision that will make everybody happy or not. I think after today's events, the situation will cool down for quite a bit until March, when the red shirts will hold their mass rally.

Additional reading:

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"Thailand: Warring Colours" - A Beginner's Guide to the Thai Political Crisis

In December 2009 Al Jazeera English have aired a 45-minute long documentary "Thailand: Warring Colours" about the ongoing political crisis. I think it does a good job summarizing the key moments and issues that are plaguing the country for years. Some newsmakers like Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva and well, you-know-who are being interviewed as well as activists from both colors and many other voices. This is a beginner's guide for understanding the current political situation. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2Gmt7dvOWs&w=600&h=360]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLLSE-VFe4&w=600&h=360]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JmCjwZQHJk&w=600&h=360]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b24xix2bxaI&w=600&h=360]

For a comparison, here's my take summarizing the issue back in September 2009 on the third anniversary of the military coup of 2006 in a webcast when I was working with Asia News Network.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgOBRHum800&w=600&h=360]

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